2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Haha, the UKMET text TC tracker claims a TD develops at 138 hours at 25.1N, 103.3W. That's practically in the center of Mexico.
1 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
So what models are showing what on the tail end of this system going into late next week? Can we get some cliffs?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2899
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12z ECMWF shows a 1000mb low developing over west-central Texas.
0 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1971
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
00z GFS develops a tropical/subtropical storm from a decaying front in the middle of next week. 12z Euro also showed a potential setup for some development.
1 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
I know its early yet, but that's a pretty decent wave that just came off Africa.
Held up nicely hitting the water.
Held up nicely hitting the water.
1 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Keeping an eye on the wave at 10N 55W.
Nice 850mb vort with good UL conditions.
Convection firing up.
Nice 850mb vort with good UL conditions.
Convection firing up.
0 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Anticyclone developing tomorrow in the lower Carib.
Will expand out to the west Carib over the following couple days.
This will coincide with the wave firing off now at 55W and moving into the lower Carib.
Watching the model runs to see if they latch onto this.
Will expand out to the west Carib over the following couple days.
This will coincide with the wave firing off now at 55W and moving into the lower Carib.
Watching the model runs to see if they latch onto this.
0 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GCANE wrote:Keeping an eye on the wave at 10N 55W.
Nice 850mb vort with good UL conditions.
Convection firing up.
The convection is getting sheared NE exposing the sharp wave.
Does appear to be some storm relative circulation and no doubt there is low pressure at the surface.
Climo usually predicts a lot of shear off SA in the Caribbean so the models may hold off for a couple days.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6355
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
This wave at 55W would be timing it right once it gets to the western Carib. Sea for possible MJO enhancement and the ECM ENS 500mb Anom with a ridge over eastern NA for possible development IMO.
0 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Looks like the wave is trying to climb a little bit.
May clear the SA Coast.
May clear the SA Coast.
2 likes
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1971
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Will need to watch for potential subtropical/tropical development off the east coast. Appears unlikely at this time but models often struggle to identify systems like this. Operational 18z GFS appears to develop a system on a decaying front and transitions it into a tropical/subtropical storm near New England. 12z EPS was at about a 15% chance of genesis.
1 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1971
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
00Z GFS appears to develop a weak tropical cyclone off the coast of North Carolina next week.
0 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
A low-level vort may come off Africa Tuesday.
So far, GFS is showing as a cold core.
So far, GFS is showing as a cold core.
0 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
No storm model support but all major MJO forecasts are in Phase 2 in the next 3-7 or 8 days. Maybe some energy from a boundary intersecting with a wave to come? Idk. But Phase 2 this time of year can be indicative of appropriate conditions or something like a tropical surge coming up. Who knows? Going for it is progged high pressure in NE Canada. Arguing against is a cold trough in the central US. If by Monday there is anything suspicious around on satellite, it would have to be watched.
0 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Very strong MCS fired off in southern Mali and moved thru Guinea.
Could be a harbinger of something especially once the dust settles.
Could be a harbinger of something especially once the dust settles.
0 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean may have to be watched early next week for possible development if the GFS is correct of its energy tracking towards the Bahamas/SE US where it may find better upper level conditions.
2 likes
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1971
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
NDG wrote:Tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean may have to be watched early next week for possible development if the GFS is correct of its energy tracking towards the Bahamas/SE US where it may find better upper level conditions.
The 00z ECMWF also showed an area of vorticity developing near Florida at the end of the run. Many GEFS and EPS members are showing weak lows as well. Still long range so we will have to see if the timeframe moves up and models come more on board.
1 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
CyclonicFury wrote:NDG wrote:Tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean may have to be watched early next week for possible development if the GFS is correct of its energy tracking towards the Bahamas/SE US where it may find better upper level conditions.
The 00z ECMWF also showed an area of vorticity developing near Florida at the end of the run. Many GEFS and EPS members are showing weak lows as well. Still long range so we will have to see if the timeframe moves up and models come more on board.
I was going to say that if the Euro is showing that solution in its 7-10 day range that it would probably be from another TW but looking at the GFS closely it also shows this piece of energy to hand around the Bahamas through the end of next week.
0 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12z EPS for that disturbance in 7-10 days:
0 likes
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
EC tries to develop something in the northern GUlf at day 9-10. Comes from the general area of troughiness in the region
0 likes