Disturbed Weather (now inland over Texas)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 523
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#61 Postby Clearcloudz » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:43 pm

Last edited by Clearcloudz on Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#62 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:47 pm

To clarify,he is not now in NHC so can post more bullish wording messages like this one.

@ToddKimberlain
Low pressure in the northern Gulf just south of the western Florida Panhandle looks awfully suspicious. Could a tropical depression be forming? #flwx #alwx #mswx #tropics


 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1013832847080284161


1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#63 Postby Siker » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:49 pm

ForexTidbits wrote:Higher-latitude systems like the one in the Gulf tend to flourish in inactive hurricane seasons. Sometimes a zone w/ enhanced % of genesis stretching from the Gulf into the west Atlantic where the shear is lower-than-average & waters anomalously warm.


You should really copy the link to tweets and embed them rather than copy the text and trim off the hashtags. Makes it look like you're trying to pass info off as your own.

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1013835007314538496


2 likes   

User avatar
lrak
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1770
Age: 57
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#64 Postby lrak » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:53 pm

Ins't the Louisiana delta like maybe 2 or 3 feet above sea level and mostly marsh waters? Would that really impact this system as it travels West?
1 likes   
AKA karl

Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#65 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:54 pm

lrak wrote:Ins't the Louisiana delta like maybe 2 or 3 feet above sea level and mostly marsh waters? Would that really impact this system as it travels West?


yeah won't have all too much of an effect on if it rides the coast.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
lrak
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1770
Age: 57
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#66 Postby lrak » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:55 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
lrak wrote:Ins't the Louisiana delta like maybe 2 or 3 feet above sea level and mostly marsh waters? Would that really impact this system as it travels West?


yeah won't have all too much of an effect on if it rides the coast.


thanks Aric Dunn I suspected that might be the case.
2 likes   
AKA karl

Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#67 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:05 pm

Models in good agreement that it will be moving inland into SE LA around sunrise tomorrow (close to New Orleans). Development chances remain low, though there is an LLC in surface obs (1015mb). Lower image is the 12Z EC (blue) and 12Z GFS (red) with black EC wind barbs valid 15Z tomorrow. Both models initialized the low very well.

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#68 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:07 pm

Siker wrote:
ForexTidbits wrote:Higher-latitude systems like the one in the Gulf tend to flourish in inactive hurricane seasons. Sometimes a zone w/ enhanced % of genesis stretching from the Gulf into the west Atlantic where the shear is lower-than-average & waters anomalously warm.


You should really copy the link to tweets and embed them rather than copy the text and trim off the hashtags. Makes it look like you're trying to pass info off as your own.

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1013835007314538496



In 2008 we had Edouard skim along the northern Gulf Coast in July or August. So this isn’t necessarily true always.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#69 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:18 pm

EC & GFS keep the low well inland tomorrow. Here's a plot of EC (blue) and GFS (red) pressure in 0.5mb increments along with the EC's total accumulated precip in 1 inch increments valid through 03Z Thursday (10pm Wed). Not a lot of rain, in general. 1-3 inches most areas.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8071
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#70 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:23 pm

Update from local Met Jeff Lindner:

An area of low pressure has formed overnight south of the Pensacola/Mobile area over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is confirmed by both coastal observation sites, coastal radars, and offshore buoys/oil platforms indicating a broad counter clockwise wind field has formed. Land based radar show numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature mainly offshore of the NE Gulf coast.

The National Hurricane Center on its most recent tropical weather outlook gives this feature a 10% chance of additional development before it moves inland over SE LA tonight into Tuesday.

This feature will continue to move westward and arrive into SE TX late Tuesday into Wednesday although that might be a bit fast given the current satellite and radar trends. Expect our currently very dry air mass to become rapidly saturated early on Wednesday with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely, especially in the region between Houston and Lake Charles. PWS surge to near 2.4 inches on Wednesday which will support a heavy rainfall threat.

Current rainfall amounts are expected to average 1-2 inches over the region with isolated much higher amounts. There is still some uncertainty as to where the greatest rainfall amounts may occur, although there has been some indication of the region between Houston and Lake Charles could see some of the heavier rainfall.

Note: Such weak “tropical lows” can become very effective rainfall producers, so it will be important to monitor the forecast over the next 36-48 hours for any changes.

A wet pattern will remain in place with an upper level high to our north resulting in easterly upper level flow over SE TX for the next several days post Wednesday. Tropical waves within this flow will result in good coverage of daily thunderstorms late this week into the weekend.
1 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1535
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf: 2 PM TWO=10%/10%

#71 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:EC & GFS keep the low well inland tomorrow. Here's a plot of EC (blue) and GFS (red) pressure in 0.5mb increments along with the EC's total accumulated precip in 1 inch increments valid through 03Z Thursday (10pm Wed). Not a lot of rain, in general. 1-3 inches most areas.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECandGFS.JPG


Yep. Move this 100 miles further south and we are looking at a tropical storm developing. Too much land.
0 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#72 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:34 pm

Not much wind on/near Pensacola Beach. We’ve had a couple nice showers rotate by today but it looks like most of the weather is offshore.
0 likes   

User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#73 Postby Siker » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:40 pm

Still perplexed by the difference between the GFS and its ensembles. Could be the lower resolution of the ensembles making them portray the system as more cohesive than it actually is, but nonetheless ~10 members keeping the low mostly over water until Texas is nothing to scoff at.
2 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#74 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:45 pm

Siker wrote:Still perplexed by the difference between the GFS and its ensembles. Could be the lower resolution of the ensembles making them portray the system as more cohesive than it actually is, but nonetheless ~10 members keeping the low mostly over water until Texas is nothing to scoff at.



given the trends. something skirting the coast is a good possibility.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#75 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:51 pm

Convection now weakening around the weak low center. Fairly significant NE shear overhead, too. No development. You can clearly see a weak swirl rotating rapidly NW on the sat loop below (use the slider at the bottom of the image).

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6617
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#76 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:56 pm

Looks like the "center" is due south of the AL/FL border.....not moving too quickly more like drifting. IMO
0 likes   

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1171
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Nederland, TX

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#77 Postby Nederlander » Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:Convection now weakening around the weak low center. Fairly significant NE shear overhead, too. No development. You can clearly see a weak swirl rotating rapidly NW on the sat loop below (use the slider at the bottom of the image).

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=


So the main low level feature is the rotation just south of the AL/FL border? I was thinking the center was trying to consolidate under that convective blob to the SW..
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8604
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#78 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:18 pm

Looking NE toward Milton, FL from Gulf BreeE to Pcola bridge. Was some reds on radar

Image
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#79 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:31 pm

classic afternoon convective collapse. should see an increase again as we head into the evening.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6617
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Disturbed Weather Over Northeastern Gulf

#80 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:33 pm

Not sure what's going on, it does seem as though something is trying to consolidate to the SW.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

Nederlander wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Convection now weakening around the weak low center. Fairly significant NE shear overhead, too. No development. You can clearly see a weak swirl rotating rapidly NW on the sat loop below (use the slider at the bottom of the image).

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=


So the main low level feature is the rotation just south of the AL/FL border? I was thinking the center was trying to consolidate under that convective blob to the SW..
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: JtSmarts, ljmac75, TheWisestofAll, ToneLoc and 69 guests