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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Invest 95L

#19461 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:09 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
453 AM AST Thu Jul 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Saharan dust is still established across the area, but on Friday
showers should help to lower the concentrations. The Saharan dust
is expected to once again increase on Saturday. Sunday a surge of
moisture will move in from the east ahead of invest 95L so
showers are expected to increase across the U.S. Virgin Islands
during the morning, then across Puerto Rico during the afternoon.
Monday invest 95L will transverse the area with scattered to
numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms, then the wave
clears the region on Tuesday with fair weather returning to the
region through Friday.

&&

.Short Term...Today through Saturday...

Saharan dust along with low relative humidity in the mid to upper
levels of the atmosphere will continue to dominate the local
weather today. Locally induced showers can be expected over the
western and western interior PR in the afternoon but due to the
lack of moisture along the mid levels and little instability,
showers are expected to be short lived. On Friday, Saharan dust
concentration is expected to decrease and a patch of low level
moisture along with the proximity of an upper level low will then
create a better platform for shower development over the local
islands. On Saturday, drier air will move into the area resulting
in mostly fair weather conditions once again.

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s in lower
elevations, and the upper lower to middle 80s in higher elevations.
Winds will prevail out of the east at 10 to 15 mph with higher
gusts. Also, because drier conditions continue and very little
rainfall has occured, fire danger will moderate today.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
There`s a lot of uncertainty in the long-term period due to
invest 95L in the eastern Atlantic, but what is certain is the
increasing rain chances for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands on Sunday and Monday. Sunday moisture ahead of 95L will
reach the forecast area, as a result, rain will move into the U.S.
Virgin Islands during the morning and continue to spread east
across Puerto Rico during the afternoon.

The current GFS and ECMWF models both have invest 95L approaching
the local area as a tropical wave on Monday, this could cause an
increase in showers and thunderstorms over the region if this
comes to fruition. We will continue to monitor the situation as
invest 95L continues to move across the eastern Atlantic.
Remember the National Hurricane center is the official source for
all information concerning invest 95L. The moisture from the
tropical wave is forecasted to move out of the area on Tuesday,
then dry air and saharan dust works in from the east. A fair
weather pattern is expected to prevail starting Wednesday and last
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail. Hazy skies will
continue, but, visibilities will remain VFR cat. SHRA can be
expected in and around of TJMZ/TJBQ from 04/17-04/22Z. Winds will
continue from the east at around 10 kts increasing 15 to 20 kts with
higher gusts after 05/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 15 kts with possible gusts up to
20 through Saturday. Small craft operators are urged to exercise
caution. Moderate risk of rip currents across most of the beaches
in PR, Vieques, Culebra, and Saint Croix.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 79 / 10 10 20 30
STT 89 78 89 78 / 20 10 10 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Invest 95L

#19462 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:49 am

Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains well organized,
and a tropical depression could form at any time. This disturbance
is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, in a few days,
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system
is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Depression Two

#19463 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:48 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 41.4W
ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 41.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a
tropical storm later today or on Friday. The system is forecast to
degenerate into an open trough east of the Lesser Antilles over the
weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

For the past day or so, we've been monitoring a small area of low
pressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean. Despite a noticeable mid-level rotation in the convective
clouds, it had not been conclusive whether or not the system had a
closed circulation at the surface with a well-defined center.
However, the system appears more distinct and independent from the
Intertropical Convergence Zone as compared to yesterday, and
scatterometer data appears conclusive enough to support a closed,
yet tiny circulation. We are now confident enough that the system
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and have initiated
advisories on Tropical Depression Two with maximum winds of 30 kt,
which is supported by Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The depression will be located in a relatively low-shear environment
for the next 3 days or so. However, the small cyclone is surrounded
by abundant dry air, and the system will be moving over marginally
warm waters during the next few days, which could both limit
intensification. The NHC official forecast allows for some slight
strengthening and most closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus
guidance (HCCA), showing the depression becoming a tropical storm
within the next 24 hours. Between 72 and 96 hours, the system is
expected to begin encountering strong westerly shear and also
accelerate, both of which should cause it to degenerate into an open
wave east of the Lesser Antilles.

Even though the center has been difficult to locate, the initial
motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/14 kt. The depression is
located to the south of a sprawling subtropical ridge, although a
break in the ridge over the central Atlantic may cause the system to
slow down a bit during the next 36 hours. After that time, the
cyclone is likely to speed up again when it becomes situated to the
south of a new mid-level high. The track guidance is in generally
good agreement, and the NHC official forecast is close to the TVCX
multi-model consensus and the HCCA guidance.

Even though the cyclone is expected to dissipate east of the Lesser
Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue
moving quickly westward, likely bringing locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 10.2N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 10.7N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 11.4N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 12.1N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 12.9N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 14.7N 56.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Depression Two

#19464 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:06 am

Is important that all the residents of the Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico prepare for some bad weather even if the Cyclone dissipates.From discussion:

Even though the cyclone is expected to dissipate east of the Lesser
Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue
moving quickly westward, likely bringing locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19465 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:02 pm

Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
230 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BERYL...

Satellite imagery indicates that the tropical depression has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Beryl. Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An
updated intensity forecast will be provided with the 500 PM AST
(2100 UTC) advisory.


SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 42.3W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Berg
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Depression Two

#19466 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is important that all the residents of the Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico prepare for some bad weather even if the Cyclone dissipates.From discussion:

Even though the cyclone is expected to dissipate east of the Lesser
Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue
moving quickly westward, likely bringing locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday

:) Yes thanks Luis be sure about. Whereas, given the latest ramping trend appareance and increasing status datas of Beryl, looks like we should begin to keep a real close eye on as Beryl is becoming much more healthy than predicted. Let's wait and see. But for now, i'm shocked to see how this little is foling all the plans :roll: at least for now. Let's hope that the shear scenario comes faster to calm down TS Beryl :)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19467 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:26 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

...TINY BERYL STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 42.8W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 42.8 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through the weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of Beryl will remain east of the Lesser
Antilles through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beryl
could become a hurricane by Friday or Saturday. Beryl is forecast
to degenerate into an open trough just east of the Lesser Antilles
over the weekend.

Beryl is a tiny tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

Beryl has been a bit of a surprise today, which is not uncommon for
tiny tropical cyclones such as itself. A 1724 UTC SSMI microwave
pass and a 1853 UTC SSMI/S pass both revealed that the cyclone had
developed a well-defined 5 nmi-wide mid-level eye, and a dimple has
been apparent in visible satellite imagery. It's usually difficult
to get a good handle on the intensity of these types of cyclones
given their small size, but data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are a
consensus T3.0. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 45 kt,
but there is a lot of uncertainty in this estimate.

If the initial intensity is uncertain, the future intensity is even
more of a quandary. Despite being surrounded by abundant dry air,
Beryl has apparently been able to isolate itself and possibly
moisten the near-storm environment while located in an area of low
shear. Since the shear is expected to remain quite low for the next
36 hours or so, and small cyclones like Beryl often have a tendency
to strengthen quickly over a short period of time, continued
intensification appears likely for the next day or so. The updated
NHC intensity forecast most closely follows the statistical-
dynamical guidance, which lies at the upper end of the guidance
envelope, and brings Beryl to hurricane strength within 36 hours.
After that time, increasing westerly shear, partially due to Beryl
accelerating toward the west, is expected to cause weakening. In
addition, every global model shows the cyclone opening up into a
tropical wave in 72-96 hours, which is what the NHC forecast
continues to depict. It cannot be stressed enough, however, that
this is a low confidence forecast.

The one stable part of the forecast is Beryl's future track. The
new guidance has not changed much from the previous forecast cycle,
and it continues to show Beryl slowing down a bit during the next 24
hours, followed by a west-northwestward acceleration in 48-72 hours
due to a strengthening ridge to the north. The updated NHC track
forecast is just a bit south of the previous one and is closest to
the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance.

Even though Beryl is expected to dissipate just east of the Lesser
Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue
moving quickly westward and will likely bring locally heavy
rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday
and Monday.

Key Messages:

1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity.
Confidence in the official intensity forecast is also much lower
than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.

2. While Beryl is still expected to dissipate as a tropical cyclone
by Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles, there will likely
be some rain and wind impacts on those islands early next week.
Residents there should monitor products from their local weather
office for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 10.3N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 10.8N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 11.4N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 12.1N 48.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 13.0N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 14.5N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Tropical Storm Beryl

#19468 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:37 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

...TINY BERYL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 44.0W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 44.0 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through tonight. A fast westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through the weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of Beryl will remain east of the Lesser
Antilles through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beryl
could become a hurricane on Friday. Beryl is forecast to degenerate
into a strong open trough just east of the Lesser Antilles over the
weekend.

Beryl is a tiny tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19469 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:06 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

...TINY BERYL BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 45.1W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1830 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Beryl.


Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

Deep convection associated with the tiny tropical cyclone has
continued to become better organized overnight. An earlier AMSR2
microwave overpass showed a well-defined mid-level eye and a
pinhole eye has been apparent in the various GOES-16 satellite
channels since shortly after 0600 UTC and was most evident around
0715 UTC. Although the clarity of the eye has waxed and waned since
that time, there is enough convective organization to increase the
initial intensity to 65 kt, making Beryl the first hurricane of the
2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

The cyclone has another 18-24 hour within very low vertical wind
shear conditions and over SSTS of 26-27 degrees Celsius. These
favorable conditions suggest that the tiny hurricane is likely to
intensify further today. The NHC intensity forecast calls for
additional strengthening and is at the upper-end of the intensity
guidance, but I would not be too surprised if the compact hurricane
reaches a slightly higher peak intensity than indicated below. By
36 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 15 kt, and
it is expected to be greater than 20 kt shortly after that time.
This should cause the very small tropical cyclone to quickly
weaken, however as mentioned in the Key Messages below there is
greater uncertainty than usual regarding Beryl's intensity
forecast. Although the updated NHC forecast shows Beryl
reaching the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm it is highly
possible that the system will have degenerated into an open trough
by that time. Regardless of the system's status at 72 h, it is
likely to bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains to
portions of the Lesser Antilles Sunday and Monday.

The initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt. The track guidance
is in good agreement taking Beryl west-northwestward to the
south of a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic. There
has been little overall change in the latest dynamical guidance and
the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope closest to
the latest ECMWF and HFIP correct consensus models.


Key Messages:

1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity. Confidence
in the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal.
Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to
predict are possible during the next couple of days.

2. While Beryl is still to forecast to quickly weaken or dissipate
as a tropical cyclone on Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles,
there will likely be some rain and wind impacts on those islands
early next week. Residents there should monitor products from their
local weather office for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 10.6N 45.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 11.0N 46.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 11.7N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 12.7N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 13.6N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 15.4N 61.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19470 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:58 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
553 AM AST Fri Jul 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS....A seasonal weather pattern is expected to prevail
across the local islands through at least Saturday. The chance
for showers and thunderstorms will increase early the next week.
Beryl is still expected to degenerate into a strong tropical
wave as environmental conditions becomes unfavorable.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

For today, low level moisture will continue to bring in scattered
showers across the local waters with some occasionally affecting the
eastern and northeastern portions of Puerto Rico during the morning.
Then, showers are expected to develop over the interior and western
portions of PR in the afternoon. For Saturday, a similar weather
pattern is expected.

On Sunday, the GFS model guidance indicates a line of moisture ahead
of Beryl moving across the local area, increasing the mid-low level
moisture over the region. This will result in an increase in shower
activity across the local waters and the eastern half of PR in
the morning. Showers are then expected to spread across portions
of the local islands in the afternoon with possible isolated
thunderstorms developing over the interior and western sections of
Puerto Rico.

Based on the latest NAAPS Aerosol model guidance, some Saharan dust
will remain over the region through the weekend but not as
concentrated as the days before. The increase in shower activity
across the area will also help decrease some of the suspended dust
particulate.

Temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s in
lower elevations, and the upper lower to middle 80s in higher
elevations. East winds at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts is expected
through Saturday becoming east northeast on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...

Beryl is still expected to degenerate into a tropical wave/strong
open trough as the environmental conditions becomes unfavorable.
Refer to TCDAT2 for additional details.

Based on the latest guidance, Beryl is expected to move over Puerto
Rico as a strong tropical wave/open trough. As this wave moves
closer to the forecast area late Sunday night into early Monday
morning, expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms across
the forecast area particularly across the Caribbean waters, Saint
Croix, south and southeast Puerto Rico. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is then expected to spread across northern areas of
Puerto Rico as well as the Atlantic waters Monday afternoon.
Periods of showers with thunderstorms likely to continue through
early Tuesday morning. With these showers and thunderstorms expect
squally weather with strong gusty winds and rainfall accumulations
between 1 and 4 inches. Urban flooding and rises along small
streams and rivers as well as mudslides in areas of steep terrain
are likely. Stay tuned.

As the tropical wave moves away from the local islands Tuesday
afternoon, a seasonal weather pattern is expected to return across
the forecast area with locally induced afternoon showers and
thunderstorms across western areas of Puerto Rico each day.
Elsewhere, isolated shower activity expected.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail with hazy skies.
Visibilities will remain P6SM. VCSH can be expected for TJSJ/TJBQ
during the morning and afternoon. SHRA can be expected for TJMZ from
06/17-06/22Z. Winds will continue mainly from the east at 10 kts or
less, increasing 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts after 06/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate early next
week as a tropical wave moves across the local waters late Sunday
night into Monday. Seas greater than 7 feet are expected with a
strong gusty winds at times, particularly across the Caribbean
waters. Meanwhile, expect seas below 6 feet today and tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 80 / 30 30 30 30
STT 90 78 90 78 / 30 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19471 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:51 pm

Hurricane Watch for Dominica - Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique Guadeloupe St. Martin St. Barthelemy

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

...MINIATURE BERYL SPEEDING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 47.8W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Dominica.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy




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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19472 Postby msbee » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:22 pm

I just saw that, Luis.
So French side of the island is under an alert butt Dutch side is not LOL
I honestly don't know what to expect of this storm.
It should pass well south of St Maarten but I wonder if we will get any rain or wind with it at all.
Hope it does nott cause a problem with Gustywind either. or PR in the next few days. PR surely does not need any bad weather.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19473 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:26 pm

msbee wrote:I just saw that, Luis.
So French side of the island is under an alert butt Dutch side is not LOL
I honestly don't know what to expect of this storm.
It should pass well south of St Maarten but I wonder if we will get any rain or wind with it at all.
Hope it does nott cause a problem with Gustywind either. or PR in the next few days. PR surely does not need any bad weather.


Surely we here dont need any bad weather at all as still many houses are with the blue tarps and the electric grid is in precarious condition.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19474 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:51 pm

msbee wrote:I just saw that, Luis.
So French side of the island is under an alert butt Dutch side is not LOL
I honestly don't know what to expect of this storm.
It should pass well south of St Maarten but I wonder if we will get any rain or wind with it at all.
Hope it does nott cause a problem with Gustywind either. or PR in the next few days. PR surely does not need any bad weather.

Hi Barbara, i'm ok :) Be safe and dry :) , continue to monitor it. Very tricky forecast for this mysterious tiny system. Anyway, i'm making some préparations in case of. Looks Martinica, Dominica and Guadeloupe are the most exposed islands even if it's a bit early to have an exact path of Beryl. I'm shocked :eek: that the NHC maintain a CAT 1 when Beryl could cross the 60°W :( Let's hope that nothing happens from this little boy, the southern part of Guadeloupe has really suffered from Maria and some people are in a precarious situation with blue tarps in some isolated areas. Our authorities take it seriously by putting us in a TS WATCHES like Martinica and the Northern Leewards ( French side) as you have mentionned it Barbara.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19475 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:
msbee wrote:I just saw that, Luis.
So French side of the island is under an alert butt Dutch side is not LOL
I honestly don't know what to expect of this storm.
It should pass well south of St Maarten but I wonder if we will get any rain or wind with it at all.
Hope it does nott cause a problem with Gustywind either. or PR in the next few days. PR surely does not need any bad weather.


Surely we here dont need any bad weather at all as still many houses are with the blue tarps and the electric grid is in precarious condition.

Absolutely let's stay on our guard. Any islands want a TS or Hurricane just some water to erode the severe drought. :)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19476 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:13 pm

State of Emergency in Puerto Rico

The governor of Puerto Rico, Ricardo Rosselló, today declared an emergency for the island due to the passage of Hurricane Beryl through the Caribbean region.

In a press conference, Rosselló informed that next Monday the public employees will not work so that they are prepared for the cyclone and will advance the benefits of the food program for the population of low resources.

Beryl intensified today to reach maximum sustained winds of 130 kilometers per hour, while approaching the Lesser Antilles, according to the last reported the National Hurricane Center of the United States.

After the devastation caused by Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico last September, the authorities seek to ensure that all agencies are ready to provide their services effectively.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19477 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:45 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

...NO CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF BERYL AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 48.9W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Beryl, as additional watches could be required for other
islands later tonight or early Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 48.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and a faster forward speed are expected on Saturday,
with this motion continuing through early next week. On the forecast
track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over
the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Beryl could still be a hurricane when it reaches the Lesser
Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once Beryl
reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not
degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of
Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
(55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday across the southern Leeward Islands
and northern Windward Islands, including Guadeloupe, Dominica,
Martinique, St. Lucia, and Barbados. Elsewhere across the northern
Leeward and southern Windward Islands, rainfall amounts of 2 inches
or less are expected.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

While Beryl continues to produce a cluster of convection near the
center, the system appears a little less organized than earlier.
In addition, there are no recent microwave overpasses showing an eye
under the overcast. The various satellite intensity estimates are
unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity is
held at 70 kt. However, it is possible that this is a bit generous
given the observed decay of the cloud pattern.

The hurricane continues moving westward or 280/12. The track
guidance insists that a turn toward the west-northwest and an
increase in forward speed should occur in the next 12-24 h as Beryl
continues to be steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the
north. The new NHC forecast again follows this scenario, but it
lies on the south side of the guidance envelope due to current
trends and the overall northeast bias that the track guidance has
shown so far. The new NHC track has the center near the Lesser
Antilles in about 48 h, over the north central Caribbean Sea in
about 72 h, and near eastern Cuba in about 96 h - if the system
actually survives that long.

Beryl is expected to remain in a light vertical wind shear
environment for 36 h or so, then encounter steadily increasing
westerly shear as it moves into the Caribbean Sea. The intensity
guidance forecasts less strengthening during the time of favorable
conditions than previously, and based on this first part of the
intensity forecast is lowered slightly from that of the previous
advisory. Steady to rapid weakening should occur over the eastern
Caribbean due to stronger shear, and the current forecast has Beryl
weakening to a tropical wave after 96 h. An alternative scenario,
supported by the large-scale models, is that Beryl weakens to a
tropical wave near the 72-h point.

The technical issue with the NHC wind speed probabilities text
products at land locations has been resolved. The wind speed
probability values provided in the text product, the graphics on
the the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and the publicly
disseminated grid files will all correctly reflect the reduced
probabilities over land.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves through the
Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some
islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are
increasing. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect
for some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and additional
watches could be required for other islands early Saturday.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 10.9N 48.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 11.3N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 12.3N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 13.3N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 14.4N 60.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.5N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 19.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19478 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:08 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
545 AM AST Sat Jul 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A seasonal weather pattern is expected to prevail
across the local islands today. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms will increase early the next week as Beryl moves
closer to the forecast area. Hurricane Beryl is still expected
to degenerate, passing south of the area on Monday as a tropical
storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Sunday...

For today, low level moisture will continue to bring in scattered
passing showers across the local waters with some affecting the
eastern and northeastern portions of Puerto Rico during the
morning on occasion. Then, showers will once again develop over
the interior and western portions of PR in the afternoon.
Temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s in
lower elevations, and the upper lower to middle 80s in higher
elevations. East to east-southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph with
higher gusts are expected today.

On Sunday, the GFS model guidance continues to indicate a line
of moisture ahead of Beryl moving over the area, increasing the
mid-low level moisture over the region. Passing showers are to be
expected across the local waters and eastern portions of the
islands in the morning. In the afternoon, an increase in shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected over the interior and
western sections of Puerto Rico. Localized urban and small stream
flooding is possible over these areas with the heavy rains.

Based on the latest NAAPS Aerosol model guidance, the Saharan dust
continues to decrease over the region, but some lingering
particulate can be still be seen today. The increase in shower
activity on Sunday will help to decrease lingering dust particulate
even further.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Sunday...

Hurricane Beryl is still expected to degenerate, passing south of
the area on Monday as a tropical storm. Refer to TCDAT2 for further
details.

Based on the latest guidance, Beryl is expected to move south of
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands as a tropical storm on
Monday. Still expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity, particularly across the Caribbean waters, Saint Croix,
south and southeast Puerto Rico, late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to
spread across northern areas of Puerto Rico as well as the
Atlantic waters Monday morning. Periods of showers with thunderstorms
likely to continue through early Tuesday morning. At this time,
the closest approach is expected about 85 nautical miles or 98
statute miles south southwest of Mayaguez Monday afternoon with
tropical storm-force winds remaining over the offshore Caribbean
waters. However, squally weather is possible across the local
islands with strong gusty winds and rainfall accumulations between
1 and 4 inches. The highest rainfall accumulations on Monday
morning are expected across east and south Puerto Rico as well as
the US Virgin Islands, the rainfall maxima is then expected to be
focused over the northwest quadrant of the island in the afternoon.
Urban flooding and rises along small streams and rivers as well
as mudslides in areas of steep terrain are likely.

As the system moves away from the local islands Tuesday afternoon,
a seasonal weather pattern is expected across the forecast area
with locally induced afternoon showers and thunderstorms across
western areas of Puerto Rico each day. Elsewhere, isolated shower
activity expected.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail today. VCSH will
continue for TJSJ/TJBQ during the morning and afternoon. SHRA are
expected for TJMZ mainly from 06/17-06/22Z and possibly move into
the vicinity of TJBQ. MTN obscuration is possible over the
interior. Winds mainly from the east at 10 kts or less, increasing
10 to 15 kts with higher gusts after 06/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate Sunday
into Monday as Beryl moves closer to the forecast area. Seas
increasing 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas up to 14 feet,
particularly across the Caribbean waters and Mona passage by
Monday. Meanwhile, expect seas between 4 and 6 feet with
winds up to 20 knots today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 70
STT 89 79 89 79 / 40 40 60 70
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19479 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:14 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 49.8W
ABOUT 830 MI...1330 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Beryl, as additional watches could be required for other
islands later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 49.8 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-
northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross
the island chain late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Due to the small size of the hurricane, short-term changes
in intensity, up or down, could occur over the next day or two, but
Beryl is forecast to be near hurricane strength as it nears the
Lesser Antilles. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate
into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and
the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Beryl is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday across the southern Leeward Islands
and northern Windward Islands, including Guadeloupe, Dominica,
Martinique, St. Lucia, and Barbados. Elsewhere across the northern
Leeward and southern Windward Islands, rainfall amounts of 2 inches
or less are expected.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather: Watching Hurricane Beryl

#19480 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:43 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
800 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

...BERYL A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 50.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
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