ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[stormreader]

Hmmmm ... can't say I've seen many tropical storms look this good.

Kinda’ strange, eh!

[stormreader]

Sometimes you wonder about things which continually add new features and become more complex. At times you wonder if they are as functional or reliable as previously (when in simplified form). Recent upgrades to computer modeling comes to mind.

[tolakram]

Sometimes you wonder about things which continually add new features and become more complex. At times you wonder if they are as functional or reliable as previously (when in simplified form). Recent upgrades to computer modeling comes to mind.

What wasn't predicted? Recon will be in the storm soon and we'll get an accurate assessment of Chris.

[Siker]

Dried out a bit over the past hour. Should halt intensification temporarily, but we'll see if recon still finds a hurricane when they get there.

[tolakram]

SLIDER: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=773.5&y=1153&z=2&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[tarheelprogrammer]

This is no doubt a hurricane if I ever seen one.

[TheAustinMan]

Eye has cleared out as cirrus debris formerly in the eastern part of the circulation abated some. A new convective burst recently fired up again northeast of the eye but has thus far developed around the eye as opposed to over it.

257 kB. Source: Visible/IR data individually from GOES MSFC and then composited later.

[cycloneye]

Air Force plane is approaching Chris.

[stormreader]

Sometimes you wonder about things which continually add new features and become more complex. At times you wonder if they are as functional or reliable as previously (when in simplified form). Recent upgrades to computer modeling comes to mind.

What wasn't predicted? Recon will be in the storm soon and we'll get an accurate assessment of Chris.

It’s true. We can all wait for recon. I guess my metaphor was sort of clumsy. Thinking that in years gone by (in simpler times), the NHC would probably have just gone with the sat presentation and upgraded. Can’t be sure, of course. Just a hunch. Just wondering if in these more advanced and complex times in which we live, if we will see storms that perhaps should have been downgraded and others that maybe could have been upgraded sooner. Just as an example.

[stormreader]

Eye has cleared out as cirrus debris formerly in the eastern part of the circulation abated some. A new convective burst recently fired up again northeast of the eye but has thus far developed around the eye as opposed to over it.

257 kB. Source: Visible/IR data individually from GOES MSFC and then composited later.

Extremely nice presentation of this storm designated as Tropical Storm Chris.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 101729
AF306 1103A CHRIS HDOB 20 20180710
171930 3506N 07405W 7939 02108 //// +145 //// 079015 016 025 000 01
172000 3506N 07403W 8074 01959 //// +152 //// 090017 017 023 000 05
172030 3507N 07401W 8170 01862 //// +157 //// 091018 018 024 000 01
172100 3507N 07359W 8284 01743 //// +162 //// 092017 017 022 000 05
172130 3508N 07357W 8400 01624 //// +167 //// 088017 017 021 000 01
172200 3508N 07355W 8427 01593 0129 +169 +021 090018 019 019 000 00
172230 3509N 07353W 8426 01593 0135 +168 -221 093019 020 021 000 03
172300 3509N 07351W 8429 01593 0136 +167 -343 094018 018 021 000 03
172330 3510N 07349W 8429 01593 0134 +171 -390 096017 018 022 000 03
172400 3510N 07347W 8429 01591 0132 +170 -098 099018 018 023 000 03
172430 3511N 07345W 8429 01593 0126 +167 +121 101018 018 023 000 05
172500 3511N 07343W 8430 01593 //// +170 //// 102017 018 024 000 05
172530 3512N 07340W 8429 01594 0127 +170 +098 102017 018 023 000 03
172600 3512N 07338W 8443 01581 0126 +170 +133 100016 017 024 000 03
172630 3512N 07336W 8429 01589 0117 +171 +160 093015 016 /// /// 05
172700 3511N 07335W 8433 01585 0121 +170 +134 084014 014 021 000 00
172730 3510N 07334W 8429 01590 0121 +170 +115 077013 014 021 000 00
172800 3509N 07332W 8431 01587 0127 +165 +057 077013 014 021 000 03
172830 3508N 07331W 8430 01587 0132 +165 -173 073014 015 020 000 03
172900 3507N 07329W 8429 01587 0131 +165 -212 077017 018 021 000 00

[cycloneye]

[syryquil]

I will be very very surprised if recon doesn't find hurricane strength winds with how good the presentation is.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 101739
AF306 1103A CHRIS HDOB 21 20180710
172930 3506N 07328W 8432 01583 0130 +165 -092 080017 018 021 000 03
173000 3505N 07327W 8430 01585 0130 +165 -241 083016 017 021 000 03
173030 3504N 07325W 8430 01584 0124 +167 +008 088017 017 021 000 03
173100 3503N 07324W 8430 01585 //// +165 //// 085018 018 022 000 01
173130 3502N 07323W 8429 01585 0126 +163 +023 081017 018 022 000 03
173200 3500N 07321W 8433 01582 0121 +165 +079 080018 019 023 000 00
173230 3459N 07320W 8429 01584 0124 +168 -006 079017 019 025 000 03
173300 3458N 07319W 8432 01582 0120 +172 +029 073016 017 025 000 03
173330 3457N 07317W 8430 01583 0115 +174 +060 070016 017 026 000 03
173400 3456N 07316W 8430 01582 0117 +171 +072 079016 017 026 000 00
173430 3455N 07314W 8429 01582 0116 +170 +060 082014 015 026 000 03
173500 3454N 07313W 8429 01582 0114 +174 +066 087014 015 024 000 03
173530 3453N 07312W 8430 01579 0111 +174 +095 092016 016 023 000 00
173600 3452N 07310W 8429 01579 0112 +170 +094 101018 020 023 000 00
173630 3451N 07309W 8431 01578 0112 +170 +088 104019 020 022 000 03
173700 3449N 07308W 8436 01572 0116 +165 +056 099019 020 018 000 03
173730 3448N 07308W 8430 01579 0114 +167 +064 100018 020 019 000 03
173800 3446N 07308W 8432 01573 0112 +165 +072 101018 018 021 000 00
173830 3445N 07308W 8426 01579 0111 +167 +090 098019 019 022 000 03
173900 3443N 07307W 8432 01573 0112 +165 +061 097019 020 022 000 03
$$

[chaser1]

Best looking satellite presentation of a Tropical Storm....EVER!

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 101749
AF306 1103A CHRIS HDOB 22 20180710
173930 3442N 07307W 8429 01576 0113 +162 +058 105020 020 024 000 00
174000 3440N 07307W 8434 01568 0109 +165 +083 103019 021 024 000 03
174030 3438N 07307W 8429 01574 0109 +164 +084 100017 019 025 000 03
174100 3437N 07307W 8432 01571 0108 +164 +087 091019 022 025 000 03
174130 3435N 07307W 8429 01573 0106 +168 +063 096018 020 023 000 03
174200 3434N 07306W 8432 01568 0103 +168 +080 097020 021 025 000 03
174230 3432N 07306W 8433 01565 0107 +163 -012 107023 024 025 000 03
174300 3431N 07305W 8429 01567 0107 +159 +035 105023 024 023 000 00
174330 3429N 07305W 8429 01566 0105 +159 +060 099024 024 023 000 03
174400 3428N 07304W 8432 01563 0103 +161 +065 104024 025 026 000 00
174430 3426N 07304W 8432 01563 0104 +158 +073 102025 026 026 000 00
174500 3425N 07304W 8429 01565 0105 +156 +067 105027 028 025 000 03
174530 3423N 07303W 8430 01561 0101 +157 +077 102027 028 026 000 03
174600 3421N 07303W 8429 01562 0098 +157 +099 096029 031 023 000 00
174630 3420N 07303W 8434 01557 0100 +157 +015 099029 030 026 000 03
174700 3418N 07302W 8429 01558 0098 +155 +071 098030 030 026 000 03
174730 3417N 07302W 8434 01550 0095 +155 +076 100029 030 026 000 00
174800 3415N 07302W 8432 01552 0094 +155 +067 103029 031 028 000 00
174830 3414N 07301W 8429 01554 0094 +155 +053 103030 031 030 000 00
174900 3412N 07301W 8430 01552 0090 +158 +076 101029 030 031 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

[EquusStorm]

I mean, the raw T# is understandably at 5.3 right now (obviously adjusted to the mid 4's) and all things being equal there have been major hurricanes less impressive on satellite, but recon will tell the real story. Which, no doubt given the structure, will very likely be hurricane intensity.

[cycloneye]

188
URNT15 KNHC 101759
AF306 1103A CHRIS HDOB 23 20180710
174930 3411N 07301W 8429 01554 0090 +160 +093 099029 030 031 000 00
175000 3409N 07300W 8430 01551 0089 +160 +066 100029 030 031 000 00
175030 3408N 07300W 8429 01550 0085 +160 +078 097029 030 029 000 00
175100 3406N 07300W 8429 01547 0081 +161 +068 097031 031 029 000 03
175130 3405N 07259W 8431 01544 0077 +165 +063 095033 033 030 000 00
175200 3403N 07259W 8428 01544 0070 +166 +104 096034 035 032 000 00
175230 3402N 07259W 8428 01541 0066 +168 +105 094035 036 034 000 00
175300 3400N 07258W 8432 01535 0064 +172 +049 095036 037 035 000 03
175330 3359N 07258W 8429 01534 0060 +169 +088 092036 037 036 000 00
175400 3357N 07258W 8432 01528 0055 +173 +072 091038 039 041 000 00
175430 3355N 07257W 8438 01518 0050 +176 +083 096042 043 042 000 03
175500 3354N 07257W 8432 01521 0042 +178 +094 096043 043 042 001 00
175530 3353N 07257W 8428 01521 0044 +173 +076 095044 045 044 000 00
175600 3351N 07256W 8428 01518 0039 +173 +086 095046 046 044 000 00
175630 3350N 07256W 8429 01513 0032 +173 +089 094046 047 044 000 00
175700 3348N 07256W 8432 01506 0028 +173 +092 092044 046 044 000 03
175730 3347N 07255W 8434 01500 0023 +171 +098 090044 045 044 000 03
175800 3345N 07255W 8432 01497 0017 +171 +117 089047 049 046 000 00
175830 3344N 07255W 8433 01491 0018 +162 +094 088049 051 046 000 00
175900 3342N 07254W 8433 01483 0005 +171 +083 089053 054 048 000 00
$$