Texas Summer 2018

[FunNestlé]

You can see this for yourself by checking out Brownsville's climate averages:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brownsvil ... as#Climate

Notice the sudden peak in precipitation that occurs in September? That is the high pressure finally attaining sufficient enough latitude such that any of its "waffling" from constant digging Eastern US troughs doesn't end up inducing subsidence over Texas, leading to a reliable month of rain. Pure easterly flow that would otherwise be present in all of July and August if North American weather patterns were more solid. Just drive a short distance South, and you're suddenly in tropical wet-season territory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampico#Climate

[FunNestlé]

Overall, weather patterns in this country have taken a turn for the worse after Ike hit.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, DFW isn’t getting screwed for one day at least, though IMBY I missed rain from two storms by a few miles. My grand total for the week is still...0.05.

[South Texas Storms]

Parts of Dallas had a severe storm this afternoon, and there was barely any talk about it. Wow, the summer doldrums have definitely reached the forum

[Haris]

Parts of Dallas had a severe storm this afternoon, and there was barely any talk about it. Wow, the summer doldrums have definitely reached the forum

LOL , Yeah where is everyone? This thread only consists of weatherdude , me and you now

[JDawg512]

Hey, been away from the forum for a bit. Dealing with a neck injury plus work and other things so need to catch up on all the weather gossip.

Picked up over 3 inches here at the Rain Cave over the last several days. Good relief from the past two very dry months.

[weatherdude1108]

Woohoo, JDawg is back! We can add a fourth! Missed you. Sorry about your neck. Nice rain report from your end of town! It has been crickets on this thread.

[FunNestlé]

Troughs in the Eastern US (AKA -NAO) = summer dryness/"doldrums" in Texas:
https://www.weather.gov/bro/2009event_heatwavereasons

[Brent]

Parts of Dallas had a severe storm this afternoon, and there was barely any talk about it. Wow, the summer doldrums have definitely reached the forum

LOL , Yeah where is everyone? This thread only consists of weatherdude , me and you now

the summer doldrums got me thinking of when its not summer

[BrokenGlass]

Parts of Dallas had a severe storm this afternoon, and there was barely any talk about it. Wow, the summer doldrums have definitely reached the forum

Yeah, watched that one build from my office in Plano, then drove home only to see it collapse and leave only a few drops at the house. Kinda bitter about it.


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[FunNestlé]

The forecast discssions keep mentioning a ridge over Texas next week, but I'm not seeing it. The latest runs don't even have the heights anywhere near Texas: instead, they go from the MS River Valley, then back to the Great Basin.

Honestly, I'd say that the climate models have a tendency to be quite "biased" against Texas when it comes to summer rain. I've seen WAY too many discrepancies where places like the SE US and Desert Monsoon area can be under the same heights or stronger relative to Texas, yet they still get painted with rain while Texas goes completely dry. Heck, the CFS was calling for a drier than normal June and July for much of Texas back when I first checked in May, yet the complete opposite ended up happening.

[weatherdude1108]

Is interesting what the EWX brought up this morning, with the mention of the ridge not strong enough next week to thwart small scale disturbances moving in at the base of the upper ridge from across the gulf states, kind of comparable to what we saw the first week of July, though probably not to that scale.

I firmly believe a heat ridge's strength is effected by wet soils, which moderate the temperatures, versus dry soils, which reflect the heat, making them stronger, like a feedback loop. If the ridge "senses" it's more wet somewhere, then it will move around until it finds a drier area to park itself, and make it miserable for those under it. That's simplistic, but anyway. Granted it also depends on how strong the ridge is to begin with, the jet stream location, which can push it along/time of year, large scale multi-decadal features, etc.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 110900
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
400 AM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Anticyclonic flow in the mid levels over TX will hasten the drying
effects of upper ridging by funneling drier Mexican Plateau air into
South Central TX today and Thursday. Pwat values remain above 2
inches over East TX and there is a weak disturbance that will
generate abundant convection over the I-45 corridor of North Central
TX. Some outflow propagations could send a few cells into our areas
just east of Austin Metro. Broader subsidence over Central TX should
shut down this convection by 00Z. The weak disturbance is expected to
shift west into West Central TX by late Thursday, so the Thursday
afternoon forecast shows convection possible over the northern Hill
Country with no precip expected again after 00Z. The NAM model is
more compact with this cyclonic circulation while the GFS is broader
and farther east with the center of circulation for Thursday. Given
the weak feature and the higher pwat air holding to the east, will
defer to a slightly more stable GFS picture for Thursday.
[b]Temperatures will continue to slowly recover from the rain soaked
soils and vegetation with near normal highs slowly creeping to above
normals by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Friday shows better agreement among models with richer moisture
eroding from the west and decreasing areas for isolated PoPs. No PoPs
are Continued gradual ridge strengthening over TX continues the slow
warming trend and increase in heat indices. While about half the
area may see triple digit heat indices Thursday and Friday, the
forecast this weekend shows the greater majority of South Central TX
seeing 100-105 heat indices with the main exception being the Hill
Country. While the extended forecast beyond Friday indicates no
mentionable rain chances, subtle pattern differences between the ECM
and GFS of the weekend suggests that the ridge strength over TX is
not dominant enough to thwart the intrusions of small scale
disturbances that could drift west along the Gulf states or the
southern periphery of the upper ridge.

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 111919
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
219 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Sunny and typically hot across South Central Texas today, and
continuing into next week. Some relief will come to the coastal
plains, Austin Metro area, and northern Hill Country tomorrow
afternoon and evening, as a small easterly wave progresses westward
from East into Central Texas. PoPs will be on the low side, and QPF
only expected from 1/10 to 1/4 inch for those lucky enough to get
rain. PoPs will be restricted to isolated storms along the sea-
breeze in the far eastern coastal plains on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
An upper level ridge will build over the western U.S. this next week,
eventually causing a downstream trough over the eastern U.S.. The
net result for our area will be continued low-level, east-southeast
flow, in contrast to upper level, north-northwesterly flow and
subsidence drying. Look for high temperatures to bump up to the mid
90s in the Hill Country, upper 90s for most areas, and lower 100s
along the Rio Grande. Heat Index values may approach advisory
criteria by the middle of next week in the far southeastern coastal
plains, where moist air from the Gulf will keep humidity higher.
While the GFS/ECMWF don`t explicitly show it, the north-northwesterly
flow and upper level divergence in the left exit region of a 200-300
mb jet streak maximizes over Central Texas next Tue/Wed. This
climatological pattern can produce convection that moves southward
along progressive outflow boundaries. So while the chances are slim,
we will be looking for additional signals of this evolution in
future model runs.

[Haris]

Weather pattern looks quite dull over the next couple weeks! Here is my own extended 2 week forecast... Of course , concur with the NWS for official information but I think this is quite reasonable. I look at everything , ensembles 850s , skew t's...

[weatherdude1108]

https://preview.ibb.co/gVuze8/Screen_Shot_2018_07_12_at_1_28_28_AM.png

Weather pattern looks quite dull over the next couple weeks! Here is my own extended 2 week forecast... Of course , concur with the NWS for official information but I think this is quite reasonable. I look at everything , ensembles 850s , skew t's...

I think yours is pretty accurate. My area tends to be cooler than what the news says it will be. Be interesting to see how the temps pan out.

It was rather depressing watching the weather this morning.

[Haris]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 9010421760

[CaptinCrunch]

Well I was on vacation last week and guess what? it rained at my house for all of 15min and .10 worth of rain...lol I hadn't seen rain in 30+ days at the house so I made it a event by sitting on the front porch drinking Shiner and enjoying a rareity.

Of course it's raining here at work on my first day back which figuars

[TheProfessor]

Woo! Rain!

[Brent]

thunder and lightning here, surrounded by storms

Not looking forward to the rain shutting off soon

heavy rain now, storms grew over me

[WeatherNewbie]

holy hell it is coming down out there.