2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Since the Atlantic basin is dead as a doornail, how about the (rapidly weakening) tropical storm that's off the coast of Southern California in 300 hours?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
AdamFirst wrote:Since the Atlantic basin is dead as a doornail, how about the (rapidly weakening) tropical storm that's off the coast of Southern California in 300 hours?
https://i.imgur.com/KluZtF5.png
SST off the San Diego coast hit 79F this afternoon. Ever since the PDO flipped to warm, mid to upper 70s SST occur several times each summer. When we were in a cold PDO, the SST had a hard time breaking 70F and would only do so for a few days at a time each summer. Could "Hector" or "Illeana" possibly sustain itself as a weak tropical storm making landfall?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
CaliforniaResident wrote:AdamFirst wrote:Since the Atlantic basin is dead as a doornail, how about the (rapidly weakening) tropical storm that's off the coast of Southern California in 300 hours?
https://i.imgur.com/KluZtF5.png
SST off the San Diego coast hit 79F this afternoon. Ever since the PDO flipped to warm, mid to upper 70s SST occur several times each summer. When we were in a cold PDO, the SST had a hard time breaking 70F and would only do so for a few days at a time each summer. Could "Hector" or "Illeana" possibly sustain itself as a weak tropical storm making landfall?
I don't think so. SSTs drop quickly north of 20N, and it seems unlikely that any TC would be able to maintain deep convection north of about 25N. The EPAC isn't like the Atlantic, where with the right thermodynamic conditions a TC/STC can survive with SSTs below 25C.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
CyclonicFury wrote:CaliforniaResident wrote:AdamFirst wrote:Since the Atlantic basin is dead as a doornail, how about the (rapidly weakening) tropical storm that's off the coast of Southern California in 300 hours?
https://i.imgur.com/KluZtF5.png
SST off the San Diego coast hit 79F this afternoon. Ever since the PDO flipped to warm, mid to upper 70s SST occur several times each summer. When we were in a cold PDO, the SST had a hard time breaking 70F and would only do so for a few days at a time each summer. Could "Hector" or "Illeana" possibly sustain itself as a weak tropical storm making landfall?
I don't think so. SSTs drop quickly north of 20N, and it seems unlikely that any TC would be able to maintain deep convection north of about 25N. The EPAC isn't like the Atlantic, where with the right thermodynamic conditions a TC/STC can survive with SSTs below 25C.
I agree, there's is no way a possible system to the west of Baja can survive its track towards California as a tropical system, in southern California surf temps might be in the mid to uppers 70s but offshore SSTs in the 60s go all the way down to the 26th latitude, way too cold for tropical systems.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
0Z GFS actually has a TD/weak TS in the NW Gulf at day 15/16
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Not seeing the TD/TS in the Gulf but there is a pretty healthy looking wave that comes off Africa Aug 14
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
ava_ati wrote:Not seeing the TD/TS in the Gulf but there is a pretty healthy looking wave that comes off Africa Aug 14
that's because 6Z quickly dropped it
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Yikes,GFS down to #4 behind Euro,UKMET and CMC.
@RyanMaue
Whoa -- after a slight dip, ECMWF uncorked even higher skill levels.
GFS remains the 4th place model -- out of top 4.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1024341993957277696
@RyanMaue
Whoa -- after a slight dip, ECMWF uncorked even higher skill levels.
GFS remains the 4th place model -- out of top 4.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1024341993957277696
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Not a click nor a tick.
I like it.
Lets hope it stays this way till november
I like it.
Lets hope it stays this way till november
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
I can't believe it. It is actually showing something.
'Enjoy' it while you can, next run it will probably be gone.
'Enjoy' it while you can, next run it will probably be gone.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Visioen wrote:I can't believe it. It is actually showing something.
'Enjoy' it while you can, next run it will probably be gone.
https://i.imgur.com/02Qxjwe.gif
https://i.imgur.com/LsDVdFS.gif
Yeah you’re right, 16 days from now.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Visioen wrote:I can't believe it. It is actually showing something.
'Enjoy' it while you can, next run it will probably be gone.
Could be an indicator of the true beginning of peak season though. I guess we'll see in about 2 weeks.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12z ECMWF has a strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa on August 12th. Let's see if next runs still has it or not.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
cycloneye wrote:12z ECMWF has a strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa on August 12th. Let's see if next runs still has it or not.
It agrees with the 12zgfs but this may be something to watch if it’s still on the models a few days from now and may bear watching around 50w if still there
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
In the meantime, this is the GFS for the E-Pac. Just look at it going.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
@MJVentrice
ECMWF model seeing a chance for our first Cape Verde storm of 2018 to take place sometime between 8/13-8/20. This track is a bit far north for a typical system. Suggests if a storm tries to spin up, it could be quick off
Africa, tho may also be quick to spin down.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1025342237906010114
ECMWF model seeing a chance for our first Cape Verde storm of 2018 to take place sometime between 8/13-8/20. This track is a bit far north for a typical system. Suggests if a storm tries to spin up, it could be quick off
Africa, tho may also be quick to spin down.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1025342237906010114
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
00z Euro continues to show the wave and stronger. That's three runs in a row. The CMC is now also onboard but much more broad. So GFS, Euro and CMC have this now. The GFS predicts a short life in the extra long range due to a hostile environment of strong dry air. If it slips further south and stays away from dryer air could become a sleeper.
I am surprised the Euro has picked up on it so quickly and is stronger than the GFS and CMC. Let's see what it does once it gets into the more hostile area.
I am surprised the Euro has picked up on it so quickly and is stronger than the GFS and CMC. Let's see what it does once it gets into the more hostile area.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
blp wrote:00z Euro continues to show the wave and stronger. That's three runs in a row. The CMC is now also onboard but much more broad. So GFS, Euro and CMC have this now. The GFS predicts a short life in the extra long range due to a hostile environment of strong dry air. If it slips further south and stays away from dryer air could become a sleeper.
I am surprised the Euro has picked up on it so quickly and is stronger than the GFS and CMC. Let's see what it does once it gets into the more hostile area.
Nearly void of convection by the time it reaches the Cape Verde Islands. Very likely due to SST's are in the 23-25C range, which is well below normal for August in the eastern MDR.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The only way it’ll survive is if it comes off Africa at 10N or south and stays at that low latitude until 50W. That’s asking for a lot though since these waves have seem to be coming off Africa above 10N.
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