The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. While the central Pacific Ocean has cooled very slightly in the past fortnight, more than half of international climate models predict warming to recommence in the coming weeks, and El Niño likely to develop in spring. Therefore, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2018; double the normal chance.
Oceanic ENSO indicators remain neutral. The surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled slightly in the past fortnight but remains warmer than average. Likewise, the water below the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific has also cooled recently, but remains warmer than average. Atmospheric indicators such as the trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), remain neutral.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml