EPAC: JOHN - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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EPAC: JOHN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:39 am

Navy sites have it.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:21 am

They have been tracking this for the past few days.

EP, 95, 2018072900, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018072906, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018072912, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018072918, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018073000, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018073006, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018073012, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018073018, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018073100, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018073106, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018073112, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018073118, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080100, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080106, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080112, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080118, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080200, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080206, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080212, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080218, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080300, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080306, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080312, , BEST, 0, 105N, 986W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080318, , BEST, 0, 105N, 998W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1006W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS019, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 95, 2018080406, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1012W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, ep722018 to ep952018,


A large area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to show signs of
becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected form within the next few days while the system
moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:20 am

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WTPN22 PHNC 040730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040221Z AUG 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
040230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 100.8W TO 11.6N 107.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 101.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5N 101.2W
APPROXIMATELY 390NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION
REVOLVING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND LOW (5-10KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THAT 95E WILL
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT GAINS IN INTENSITY, POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH 94E IN THE
LATE TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050730Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 114.5W//
NNNN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:59 am

A large area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better organized overnight.
Environmental conditions are conducive for signficant development,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form
within the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:04 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952018 08/04/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 58 74 86 97 107 111 106
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 58 74 86 97 107 111 106
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 45 55 69 81 86 83
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 4 6 8 5 6 7 6 3 9 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 1 2 4 5 3 1 -2 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 359 349 353 332 302 305 22 79 50 3 33 70 36
SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.7 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 29.9 28.6 27.4 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 162 155 159 163 163 163 166 165 153 139 139
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -52.7 -53.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.4 -50.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 77 77 76 76 77 77 76 71 69 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 15 20 24 26 31 36 38 38
850 MB ENV VOR -27 -34 -33 -35 -36 -29 -14 19 15 33 22 -8 4
200 MB DIV 71 81 129 120 100 87 109 133 91 59 25 56 20
700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -5 -2 -2 -2 0 0 3 -3 -6 -7
LAND (KM) 514 503 508 501 503 530 561 527 470 443 411 601 761
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.2 16.1 17.9 19.6 20.0 19.3
LONG(DEG W) 101.4 102.3 103.3 104.2 105.0 106.2 107.1 107.4 107.8 109.0 111.8 115.0 116.7
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 5 4 3 8 13 16 12 7
HEAT CONTENT 48 52 69 60 45 41 42 37 32 18 8 4 7

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 22.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 8. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 17. 21. 29. 37. 39. 38.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 7. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 33. 49. 61. 72. 82. 86. 81.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 101.4

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 7.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 5.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.51 3.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 5.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -4.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.0% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 24.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 4.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 3.4% 12.4% 17.7%
Bayesian: 1.3% 4.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 11.3% 9.6% 0.4% 0.1% 8.2% 12.2% 12.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:25 am

SHIP goes to major.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:39 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:52 pm

Satellite data indicate that a broad low pressure area has formed
several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for significant development,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form
tonight or tomorrow while the system moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:01 pm

EP, 95, 2018080418, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1037W, 25, 1008, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:40 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952018 08/04/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 53 69 81 94 100 99 100 95
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 53 69 81 94 100 99 100 95
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 53 67 80 85 81 72
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 7 6 9 11 8 16 18 13 17 11 12 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 2 2 5 5 3 4 2 2 0 -6
SHEAR DIR 5 349 332 317 315 3 70 46 2 7 52 359 9
SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.9 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.4 29.0 30.1 30.7 27.7 25.4 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 164 161 157 151 146 154 168 176 147 121 111
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 6 3 3
700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 75 74 74 70 73 77 76 70 66 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 16 20 24 30 34 35 38 39
850 MB ENV VOR -24 -30 -37 -45 -48 -41 -8 -8 11 34 39 68 141
200 MB DIV 68 102 85 69 68 110 112 134 103 22 17 7 20
700-850 TADV -8 -7 -8 -6 -5 -4 -1 0 0 -3 -8 -12 -14
LAND (KM) 530 523 562 615 670 748 794 713 468 320 379 761 1039
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.7 13.1 13.0 15.0 18.6 21.2 21.3 20.8
LONG(DEG W) 103.7 105.0 106.1 107.0 107.9 108.8 108.6 107.1 106.1 108.1 113.2 118.7 121.8
STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 10 9 7 3 5 9 16 24 28 20 12
HEAT CONTENT 67 46 45 49 44 35 35 48 34 18 3 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 28.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 9. 16. 25. 31. 35. 37. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 26. 33. 34. 38. 38.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 9. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 28. 44. 56. 69. 75. 74. 76. 70.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 103.7

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.46 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 4.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -4.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.9% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 21.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.5% 15.7% 8.0% 3.6% 0.7% 12.3% 22.7% 19.2%
Bayesian: 1.6% 14.0% 7.8% 2.7% 0.2% 0.7% 1.4% 12.4%
Consensus: 1.4% 18.9% 13.3% 2.1% 0.3% 11.3% 15.3% 10.6%
DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 24.0% 23.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#11 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:29 pm

The advantage this system has over TD 11-E is a larger footprint

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:40 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located about 350 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is expected to form during the next day or so
while the system moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:01 pm

EP, 95, 2018080500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1042W, 25, 1008, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:06 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952018 08/05/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 49 69 88 99 106 107 103 91 81
V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 49 69 88 99 106 107 103 91 81
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 40 51 68 87 99 93 76 61
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 5 8 8 7 9 13 7 8 5 6 16 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 4 7 5 4 0 3 3 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 354 327 332 341 11 33 73 332 354 15 49 39 38
SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.7 30.3 30.3 28.3 25.1 24.1 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 163 162 160 155 159 168 170 151 118 105 108
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.4 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -51.5 -51.3 -50.2 -50.8 -50.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 7 5 3 4
700-500 MB RH 78 76 73 73 76 74 74 78 75 66 61 62 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 12 13 16 22 26 31 34 35 32 31
850 MB ENV VOR -29 -38 -39 -28 -18 -17 4 28 31 40 36 24 69
200 MB DIV 107 100 81 101 116 109 123 101 72 -2 8 -11 2
700-850 TADV -7 -6 -6 -6 -5 -2 0 1 0 -4 -3 -13 -14
LAND (KM) 533 537 551 572 596 640 625 502 373 311 436 788 985
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.2 15.2 17.5 20.2 22.0 22.0 21.2
LONG(DEG W) 104.2 105.1 105.9 106.6 107.1 107.7 107.4 106.9 107.9 110.8 115.3 119.6 121.5
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 4 1 4 9 16 22 22 15 8
HEAT CONTENT 60 47 44 46 46 45 47 36 26 8 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 57.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 25. 31. 34. 36. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 18. 28. 34. 36. 31. 29.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 26. 21. 10. 2. -5. -10. -14.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 24. 44. 63. 74. 81. 82. 78. 66. 56.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 104.2

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 8.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 6.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.45 3.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.71 6.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 5.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.88 -5.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 50.4% 30.9% 0.0% 0.0% 36.9% 45.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 8.4% 46.6% 30.1% 20.3% 4.4% 45.4% 33.6% 30.9%
Bayesian: 1.2% 16.5% 16.3% 6.7% 0.3% 4.0% 5.7% 7.5%
Consensus: 3.2% 37.8% 25.8% 9.0% 1.6% 28.8% 28.1% 12.8%
DTOPS: 0.0% 18.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 30.0% 26.0% 14.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:26 am

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located about 350 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is expected to form during the next day or so
while the system moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:27 am

05/0545 UTC 13.2N 103.9W T1.0/1.0 95E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:09 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952018 08/05/18 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 46 65 80 91 96 92 87 77 66
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 46 65 80 91 96 92 87 77 66
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 37 46 57 67 67 59 47 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 10 9 9 9 6 3 2 4 7 1 1 1
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 5 7 3 1 0 8 9 0 -3
SHEAR DIR 353 348 356 34 34 61 11 235 102 133 215 343 124
SST (C) 28.2 28.4 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.4 28.5 25.3 23.5 21.9 21.0
POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 157 160 162 165 167 171 152 120 101 82 71
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -51.8 -51.3 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 5 2 0 0
700-500 MB RH 76 73 74 74 75 75 77 75 67 63 60 60 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 15 21 24 29 30 28 28 25 22
850 MB ENV VOR -43 -43 -37 -30 -28 1 21 50 63 57 79 66 70
200 MB DIV 113 93 115 131 140 101 92 54 13 8 -19 -24 1
700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -5 -5 0 2 11 -7 -2 -11 7 -3
LAND (KM) 602 612 589 583 566 516 410 363 274 282 512 764 962
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.6 13.9 14.2 15.0 16.2 18.2 20.5 22.8 24.2 24.8 24.9
LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.4 105.9 106.3 106.5 106.8 107.0 108.3 110.6 114.0 118.2 121.9 124.1
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 4 5 9 15 17 20 19 14 8
HEAT CONTENT 51 47 47 47 46 37 29 18 8 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 46.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 33. 34. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 9. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 19. 24. 23. 23. 18. 14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 21. 17. 8. 2. -4. -8. -11.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 21. 40. 55. 66. 71. 67. 62. 52. 41.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 104.7

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 7.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 5.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.44 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 6.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 4.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 -4.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 36.2% 27.5% 0.0% 0.0% 27.7% 48.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 7.1% 46.9% 29.7% 18.7% 3.3% 43.7% 37.3% 22.1%
Bayesian: 2.4% 14.7% 14.9% 4.3% 0.2% 7.9% 15.6% 17.5%
Consensus: 3.2% 32.6% 24.0% 7.7% 1.2% 26.5% 33.7% 13.2%
DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 15.0% 6.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:40 am

Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with an area of low pressure located about 400 miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, have become a little better
organized overnight. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the
system moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:21 am

SAB up to 1.5.

05/1145 UTC 13.3N 104.5W T1.5/1.5 95E -- East Pacific
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:31 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952018 08/05/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 51 71 82 97 101 97 84 72 61
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 51 71 82 97 101 97 84 72 61
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 51 64 79 84 69 55 43 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 6 6 12 3 1 6 3 5 4 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 3 4 0 2 1 0 1 3 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 334 360 23 6 30 97 298 235 284 123 22 11 21
SST (C) 28.6 29.3 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 29.2 25.0 22.6 23.4 22.5 21.3
POT. INT. (KT) 149 156 163 163 165 168 172 160 116 90 96 85 75
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.1 -52.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 4 2 1 1 0
700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 76 77 76 78 73 70 69 68 70 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 15 23 24 31 31 31 26 24 21
850 MB ENV VOR -37 -37 -29 -31 -15 27 39 82 60 76 75 52 32
200 MB DIV 100 113 130 137 137 112 76 79 1 31 5 12 -5
700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 1 2 2 -10 -6 -6 -5
LAND (KM) 569 553 517 508 500 407 335 235 164 381 580 631 623
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.3 14.7 15.1 16.3 18.1 20.8 23.4 24.4 24.2 24.7 26.4
LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.4 105.8 106.3 106.7 107.1 107.9 109.7 112.8 116.5 119.2 120.3 121.1
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 7 13 18 19 16 8 6 11
HEAT CONTENT 49 42 38 36 33 30 21 11 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 46.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 26. 28. 28. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 11. 22. 27. 27. 21. 17. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 21. 17. 8. 2. -4. -8. -11.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 21. 41. 53. 67. 71. 67. 54. 42. 31.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 104.9

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 7.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 6.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.36 2.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.83 6.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.88 -4.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 28.5% 27.8% 19.5% 0.0% 23.2% 43.4% 41.6%
Logistic: 5.8% 39.0% 27.1% 15.1% 2.3% 34.6% 39.8% 9.3%
Bayesian: 7.7% 25.9% 25.5% 6.7% 0.3% 7.7% 10.1% 23.2%
Consensus: 9.0% 31.1% 26.8% 13.8% 0.9% 21.8% 31.1% 24.7%
DTOPS: 4.0% 34.0% 21.0% 10.0% 3.0% 37.0% 44.0% 19.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 08/05/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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