WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Ioke flashbacks

[Eric Webb]

Hector’s convection is warming significantly of late might be undergoing an EWRC or moving away from dmax

[Yellow Evan]

We’ve gotten no data from Recon in 2 hours. Mission cancelled?

[NotSparta]

Hector’s convection is warming significantly of late might be undergoing an EWRC or moving away from dmax

I've been seeing hints of a curved band on IR this morning, could be the beginning of an EWRC

[NotSparta]

We’ve gotten no data from Recon in 2 hours. Mission cancelled?

Was having communication problems but is now transmitting, going into the storm

[NotSparta]

Recon is transmitting data again

[Eric Webb]

Recon is entering the convective canopy now, we should find out shortly just how strong Hector is, satellite presentation has degraded somewhat since they started flying out so we'll see.

[Yellow Evan]

Recon is entering the convective canopy now, we should find out shortly just how strong Hector is, satellite presentation has degraded somewhat since they started flying out so we'll see.

Eye has also warmed a bit this morning.

[Kingarabian]

Recon is entering the convective canopy now, we should find out shortly just how strong Hector is, satellite presentation has degraded somewhat since they started flying out so we'll see.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2018 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 15:03:36 N Lon : 142:03:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 926.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.8 6.8

Not too bad. It could've been a lot worse as usually by the time recon gets to Hawaii the storms are a shell of themselves.

[Eric Webb]

Recon is entering the convective canopy now, we should find out shortly just how strong Hector is, satellite presentation has degraded somewhat since they started flying out so we'll see.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2018 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 15:03:36 N Lon : 142:03:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 926.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.8 6.8

Not too bad. It could've been a lot worse as usually by the time recon gets to Hawaii the storms are a shell of themselves.

Even if the climatological SSTs just warm 1C, the threat to Hawaii increases exponentially from TCs, this year it's warm enough to support a TC from the southeast all the way to the big island.

[TheAustinMan]

Would not surprise me much if reconnaissance found winds supportive of a Category 5. That's a very good core structure, certainly a stout eyewall in there. Images from FNMOC.

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[Yellow Evan]

Recon is entering the convective canopy now, we should find out shortly just how strong Hector is, satellite presentation has degraded somewhat since they started flying out so we'll see.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2018 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 15:03:36 N Lon : 142:03:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 926.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.8 6.8

Not too bad. It could've been a lot worse as usually by the time recon gets to Hawaii the storms are a shell of themselves.

Even if the climatological SSTs just warm 1C, the threat to Hawaii increases exponentially from TCs, this year it's warm enough to support a TC from the southeast all the way to the big island.

This is why Hawaii is likely to face more serious hurricane threats in future years as the planet warms.

[Kingarabian]

Would not surprise me much if reconnaissance found winds supportive of a Category 5. That's a very good core structure, certainly a stout eyewall in there. Images from FNMOC.

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[img]https://i.imgur.com/L2nvWpC.png[img]

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[img]https://i.imgur.com/RyTbPXm.png[img]

The best structure it's core has had till this date.

[Yellow Evan]

656
URPN15 KNHC 061732
AF300 0210E HECTOR HDOB 25 20180806
172200 1540N 14301W 6972 03131 0025 +104 +055 057051 052 040 001 00
172230 1538N 14300W 6960 03146 0015 +107 +047 056053 054 037 001 00
172300 1537N 14259W 6969 03126 0014 +105 +052 057054 055 038 001 03
172330 1536N 14257W 6968 03126 0016 +100 +053 051056 058 039 001 00
172400 1534N 14256W 6963 03130 0018 +095 +057 049060 060 041 000 00
172430 1533N 14255W 6970 03118 0024 +087 +071 048061 063 041 001 03
172500 1532N 14254W 6964 03117 0021 +084 +068 047060 062 040 004 00
172530 1531N 14252W 6968 03113 0028 +076 +069 046062 063 041 006 03
172600 1530N 14251W 6970 03103 0025 +074 +067 049065 066 044 007 00
172630 1529N 14250W 6969 03103 0029 +069 //// 055063 065 041 013 01
172700 1528N 14249W 6971 03097 0022 +070 +070 057071 072 045 007 03
172730 1528N 14247W 6971 03100 0010 +078 +064 053070 071 046 006 00
172800 1527N 14246W 6970 03095 0001 +080 +056 051069 069 047 004 00
172830 1525N 14245W 6970 03087 0004 +073 +062 051072 075 050 005 00
172900 1524N 14244W 6968 03082 0001 +070 +065 055076 077 052 007 03
172930 1524N 14242W 6968 03075 9986 +076 +065 054080 081 056 005 00
173000 1523N 14241W 6961 03076 9979 +072 +068 052080 082 058 005 00
173030 1522N 14240W 6970 03059 9965 +075 +064 050083 084 060 002 00
173100 1521N 14239W 6973 03040 9949 +076 +066 051088 090 063 003 00
173130 1520N 14238W 6966 03027 9927 +076 +066 052090 091 067 004 00
$$
;

[galaxy401]

Quick (and very late) predictions, what do you all think Recon will find with Hector? I say they'll find an intensity similar to the advisory.

[1900hurricane]

I'll go 135 kt/932 mb.

[TheAustinMan]

174030 1459N 14220W 6963 02661 9457 +135 +101 242102 114 149 023 03
174100 1458N 14219W 6950 02785 9622 +086 //// 240117 123 153 031 09

Looking like a few Category 5 SFMRs here... rain free region had 137 kt so I think that's enough evidence to meet the threshold requirement to raise Hector to a Category 5 with 140 kt winds.

[NotoSans]

Recon shows that it is AT LEAST a 130-knot hurricane, and very possible that stronger winds can be found in the northeastern quadrant.

[Yellow Evan]

912
URPN15 KNHC 061740
AF300 0210E HECTOR HDOB 26 20180806
173200 1519N 14237W 6967 03008 9913 +073 +070 049095 096 069 005 00
173230 1518N 14235W 6973 02985 9894 +072 +068 049100 103 073 005 00
173300 1517N 14234W 6964 02972 9871 +069 +068 051109 111 082 005 00
173330 1516N 14233W 6972 02933 9836 +070 +069 053118 121 090 013 00
173400 1515N 14232W 6971 02903 9796 +076 +073 052125 128 097 024 00
173430 1514N 14231W 6963 02879 9748 +079 //// 050131 132 106 022 05
173500 1514N 14230W 6962 02825 9692 +080 //// 049137 141 /// /// 05
173530 1513N 14229W 6956 02773 9618 +086 //// 053143 146 129 030 05
173600 1512N 14228W 6970 02703 9542 +103 +094 058129 142 137 000 00
173630 1511N 14227W 6999 02610 9456 +125 +099 056099 118 137 000 03
173700 1510N 14226W 6954 02612 9377 +153 +099 055066 091 117 002 03
173730 1508N 14225W 6973 02563 9358 +144 +101 060036 054 047 002 03
173800 1507N 14224W 6979 02543 9346 +146 +105 070018 027 034 001 03
173830 1505N 14224W 6970 02561 9343 +149 +106 082010 014 028 000 00
173900 1504N 14223W 6966 02560 9334 +158 +103 011003 008 027 001 00
173930 1502N 14223W 6966 02563 9324 +174 +096 276023 031 035 001 03
174000 1500N 14222W 6961 02603 9353 +181 +090 251066 079 /// /// 03
174030 1459N 14220W 6963 02661 9457 +135 +101 242102 114 149 023 03
174100 1458N 14219W 6950 02785 9622 +086 //// 240117 123 153 031 09
174130 1456N 14218W 6995 02804 9714 +082 //// 235117 120 /// /// 05
$$

[galaxy401]

NHC has been more strict with SMFRS in recent years. Still this seems to be at least a borderline 4/5. Next pass should confirm it.