WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Eric Webb]

Dvorak has virtually pegged Hector's intensity right on the money, 135 or 140 KT/932 hPa looks solid.

[Kingarabian]

Should be a Cat.5.

But of course the CPHC is going to wait until recon finishes its mission, turn back to Honolulu, Hector starts another EWRC, and then say "Recon did find a Cat.5, BUT it has weakened since based on Dvorak".

[1900hurricane]

I'll go 135 kt/932 mb.

I swear I guessed this before I saw the recon data (135 kt + KZC pressure output). : P

[NotoSans]

NHC has been more strict with SMFRS in recent years. Still this seems to be at least a borderline 4/5. Next pass should confirm it.

Yes, given what NHC did for the 2017 TCRs (in particular, Irma and Jose), I would say we should now give a higher weight to flight-level wind speed.

[Yellow Evan]

Should be a Cat.5.

But of course the CPHC is going to wait until recon finishes its mission, turn back to Honolulu, Hector starts another EWRC, and then say "Recon did find a Cat.5, BUT it has weakened since based on Dvorak".

Recon is staying till 2330z. The party is just getting started.

[Yellow Evan]

578
URPN15 KNHC 061750
AF300 0210E HECTOR HDOB 27 20180806
174200 1456N 14216W 6945 02928 9784 +079 //// 232108 115 101 048 01
174230 1454N 14214W 6910 03020 9840 +074 //// 229097 102 095 015 01
174300 1453N 14213W 6935 03023 9879 +074 //// 223089 094 084 010 01
174330 1452N 14212W 6929 03048 9901 +076 //// 220079 084 077 008 05
174400 1451N 14211W 6927 03072 9932 +070 //// 220076 078 070 018 05
174430 1450N 14210W 6946 03070 9958 +064 //// 218074 074 062 014 05
174500 1449N 14209W 6958 03062 9961 +071 //// 217073 075 /// /// 05
174530 1448N 14208W 6954 03079 9968 +075 +071 214069 073 057 009 00
174600 1446N 14207W 6963 03072 9979 +074 +070 214066 068 056 008 00
174630 1445N 14206W 6970 03075 9980 +081 +069 214067 068 053 006 00
174700 1444N 14205W 6969 03080 9974 +092 +066 215066 067 051 005 00
174730 1443N 14204W 6970 03090 9979 +095 +065 216063 066 049 002 00
174800 1442N 14202W 6970 03094 9995 +087 +069 214058 061 049 003 00
174830 1441N 14201W 6970 03098 0005 +084 +067 215057 058 047 003 00
174900 1439N 14200W 6973 03097 0014 +079 +065 214054 057 047 004 00
174930 1438N 14159W 6970 03104 0018 +080 +066 214052 053 045 005 00
175000 1438N 14159W 6970 03104 0017 +084 +067 213051 051 044 003 00
175030 1436N 14156W 6969 03118 0024 +081 +066 213049 050 043 002 00
175100 1435N 14155W 6969 03115 0023 +085 +068 213047 049 042 002 00
175130 1434N 14154W 6970 03117 0018 +091 +067 215046 046 040 001 00
$$

[1900hurricane]

Waiting on 18Z best track now to see what CPHC concludes...

[Yellow Evan]

738
URPN15 KNHC 061800
AF300 0210E HECTOR HDOB 28 20180806
175200 1432N 14153W 6971 03124 0020 +091 +068 213044 046 038 001 00
175230 1431N 14152W 6967 03127 0021 +093 +069 213043 043 035 001 00
175300 1430N 14150W 6970 03127 0022 +095 +071 213041 043 035 000 00
175330 1429N 14149W 6969 03129 0022 +097 +065 213039 042 035 000 00
175400 1428N 14148W 6970 03129 0025 +096 +062 216038 040 034 000 00
175430 1426N 14147W 6970 03131 0029 +094 +068 215038 040 033 000 00
175500 1425N 14145W 6970 03135 0029 +095 +065 215036 039 033 000 00
175530 1424N 14144W 6971 03133 0029 +097 +063 216037 037 033 000 00
175600 1423N 14143W 6973 03133 0032 +097 +062 214035 036 032 000 00
175630 1422N 14142W 6965 03143 0031 +099 +059 215035 036 030 000 00
175700 1422N 14142W 6965 03143 0032 +099 +058 212033 034 030 000 00
175730 1419N 14139W 6969 03144 0030 +102 +056 209033 033 030 000 00
175800 1418N 14138W 6971 03138 0034 +100 +054 212034 035 028 000 00
175830 1417N 14137W 6970 03143 0035 +100 +056 215035 035 029 000 00
175900 1416N 14135W 6969 03144 0040 +098 +055 213035 036 029 001 00
175930 1414N 14134W 6970 03146 0046 +094 +058 214035 036 029 000 03
180000 1413N 14133W 6970 03146 0047 +095 +061 213033 034 028 000 00
180030 1412N 14132W 6970 03146 0046 +095 +060 212032 033 028 000 00
180100 1410N 14131W 6969 03148 0049 +095 +058 210031 032 028 000 03
180130 1409N 14130W 6973 03146 0054 +091 +061 212032 032 027 000 03
$$

[1900hurricane]

NW Eyewall drop:

[Yellow Evan]

341
URPN15 KNHC 061811
AF300 0210E HECTOR HDOB 29 20180806
180200 1408N 14129W 6970 03152 0053 +093 +062 209033 034 026 001 00
180230 1407N 14127W 6965 03157 0050 +094 +061 209033 034 025 001 00
180300 1406N 14126W 6972 03152 0052 +095 +063 213031 032 023 000 00
180330 1405N 14124W 6968 03158 0057 +092 +061 211030 031 023 000 00
180400 1404N 14123W 6970 03154 0059 +091 +063 210029 029 023 000 00
180430 1403N 14121W 6971 03155 0063 +090 +062 209029 031 023 001 00
180500 1402N 14120W 6973 03156 0065 +090 +063 206029 031 026 000 03
180530 1401N 14119W 6969 03159 0063 +090 +062 211027 029 026 000 00
180600 1359N 14117W 6970 03159 0073 +083 +067 210028 028 026 000 00
180630 1358N 14116W 6967 03161 0092 +068 //// 208025 026 028 004 01
180700 1357N 14115W 6975 03151 0099 +063 //// 215025 027 030 007 01
180730 1356N 14114W 6958 03173 0088 +071 //// 205027 030 031 009 01
180800 1354N 14112W 6966 03165 0070 +085 +070 199025 026 027 001 00
180830 1353N 14111W 6973 03156 0085 +074 +073 192023 025 030 006 03
180900 1352N 14110W 6970 03156 0092 +068 //// 192023 024 034 014 01
180930 1351N 14109W 6969 03162 0074 +083 +068 196024 025 027 001 00
181000 1350N 14108W 6967 03166 0085 +075 +073 202026 027 027 003 00
181030 1350N 14108W 6967 03166 0088 +073 +072 194028 029 030 002 00
181100 1347N 14106W 6974 03157 0096 +069 //// 190027 027 027 006 01
181130 1346N 14104W 6967 03164 0086 +078 +067 191023 026 026 002 00
$$
;

[Yellow Evan]

06/1730 UTC 15.1N 142.4W T6.5/6.5 HECTOR -- Central Pacific

[Kingarabian]

156
URPN12 KNHC 061817
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP102018
A. 06/17:39:10Z
B. 15.05 deg N 142.39 deg W
C. 700 mb 2520 m
D. 938 mb
E. 235 deg 27 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C16
H. 137 kt
I. 329 deg 9 nm 17:36:00Z
J. 052 deg 146 kt
K. 327 deg 10 nm 17:35:30Z
L. 101 kt
M. 137 deg 10 nm 17:42:00Z
N. 240 deg 123 kt
O. 144 deg 7 nm 17:41:00Z
P. 8 C / 3044 m
Q. 19 C / 3038 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF300 0210E HECTOR OB 09
MAX FL WIND 146 KT 327 / 10 NM 17:35:30Z
;

[Kingarabian]

VDM verified the 137kt observation.

[CyclonicFury]

One 137 kt SFMR reading may not be enough for CPHC to upgrade to Category 5. With Jose last year in the Atlantic, a 142 kt SFMR reading was not enough and Jose had similar flight level winds to Hector. CPHC will probably go with 135 kt or so pending the NE quadrant finding stronger winds.

[1900hurricane]

Eye sonde:

[Eric Webb]

Waiting on 18Z best track now to see what CPHC concludes...

BEST only showing 120 KT smh this is why I don’t like to use it.

[Yellow Evan]

Waiting on 18Z best track now to see what CPHC concludes...

BEST only showing 120 KT smh this is why I don’t like to use it.

18z update isn't out yet unless you're talking about 12z.

[NDG]

The good news for Hawaii is that if Hector continues to be this size no hurricane force winds should reach the Big Island, per the recon hurricane force winds only go out 40-50 miles from the eye. IMO.

[Eric Webb]

Waiting on 18Z best track now to see what CPHC concludes...

BEST only showing 120 KT smh this is why I don’t like to use it.

18z update isn't out yet unless you're talking about 12z.

18z is out
10E HECTOR 180806 1800 15.1N 142.4W EPAC 120 934

[Kingarabian]

The good news for Hawaii is that Hector continues this size no hurricane force winds should reach the Big Island, per the recon hurricane force winds only go out 40-50 miles from the eye. IMO.

How about TS winds?