EPAC: JOHN - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:03 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOHN EP122018 08/06/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 65 76 89 99 120 131 131 115 100 81 61 45
V (KT) LAND 55 65 76 89 99 120 131 131 115 100 81 61 45
V (KT) LGEM 55 66 76 85 93 106 117 115 94 72 57 45 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 3 7 10 12 8 11 12 7 1 6 7 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 5 7 4 0 -4 4 -1 -2 -3 -4
SHEAR DIR 326 285 18 31 9 349 342 331 328 245 283 277 283
SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.1 29.6 28.7 27.0 24.3 23.6 21.7 20.8 20.5
POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 164 164 165 161 152 135 106 99 79 70 66
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -50.5 -50.3 -50.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 76 72 72 73 73 76 72 72 70 71 71 66 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 24 26 31 30 33 37 42 39 37 32 28 25
850 MB ENV VOR -11 -1 14 20 21 41 46 54 64 68 101 90 65
200 MB DIV 123 110 112 91 118 91 48 68 16 49 19 1 4
700-850 TADV 0 0 -6 -8 -9 3 5 5 -1 -3 -5 -2 1
LAND (KM) 535 541 552 556 565 543 473 474 489 557 647 818 968
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.3 16.8 18.1 19.4 21.0 22.5 23.9 25.0 26.0 26.8
LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.2 108.6 109.1 109.6 111.0 112.6 114.4 116.4 118.5 120.7 123.0 125.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 31 31 31 31 28 17 13 4 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 82.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 8. 9. 13. 16. 24. 25. 23. 17. 10. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 9. 15. 30. 39. 32. 15. 3. -7. -15. -22.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 10. 21. 34. 44. 65. 76. 76. 60. 45. 26. 6. -10.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.3 107.7

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 12.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 16.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 13.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 4.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.76 13.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 11.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 13.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -9.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 1.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 6.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 64% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 57.9% 86.1% 78.2% 68.4% 53.3% 64.2% 51.7% 11.5%
Logistic: 65.1% 80.9% 70.8% 64.9% 21.6% 67.8% 18.0% 2.9%
Bayesian: 72.2% 76.3% 83.3% 74.6% 21.1% 53.1% 22.4% 0.2%
Consensus: 65.1% 81.1% 77.4% 69.3% 32.0% 61.7% 30.7% 4.9%
DTOPS: 40.0% 98.0% 96.0% 76.0% 80.0% 83.0% 39.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:03 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2018 Time : 131545 UTC
Lat : 15:23:23 N Lon : 107:46:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 994.1mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 4.1

Center Temp : -72.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:35 am

Ntxw wrote:John looks angry.

*Image*

John looks like he's ready to blow his angry lid off.

hurricanes1234 wrote:Somehow I'm getting a Patricia/Rick feeling with this.

Normally I'd dismiss this but one thing John has in common so far with Rick is the duel swirling inner-banding during this stage of pre-EI. Rick's was a bit more rapid and tight. My guess for max is 130 knots.

Wouldn't it be something if both Hector and John became category 5 hurricanes at the same time? I'd give that a 4% chance. Who would go first?
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:45 am

This could be a category 5, looking more and more likely. And if recon finds 140-kt winds or greater on Hector.... woah, that will be historic.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:07 am

Visible image.

Image


Intense curved band is now starting to wrap around the center
Image
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:09 am

Anyone not getting the discussion on the NHC website? Says #0 for me.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:16 am

galaxy401 wrote:Anyone not getting the discussion on the NHC website? Says #0 for me.


Same for me, I was seeing a strange file name with no discussion.

Seems to be fixed now though.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:25 pm

669
WTPZ42 KNHC 061522 CCB
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Corrected to remove the percent symbols in the text

Early morning visible satellite images and recent microwave data
show that John continues to quickly become better organized.
Banding features now wrap nearly completely around the center, with
the development of a fairly symmetric CDO. One-minute GOES-16
imagery also show several overshooting convective cloud tops near
and to the east of the center. A TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5 was
the basis of the 1200 UTC intensity of 55 kt, but with the increase
in organization since that time, and raw objective T-numbers above
4.0 for the past few hours, the advisory intensity has been
increased to 60 kt.

John is within a very favorable environment for intensification.
The hurricane will be moving over SSTs around 30C, and in a low
shear and moist environment. These conditions are expected to
allow for rapid strengthening during the next day or so. The SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index shows a nearly 80 percent chance of RI
over the the next 24 h, and DTOPS gives an 80 percent chance of a
40 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 h. Based on these
data and the very aggressive guidance, the NHC forecast calls for a
40 kt increase in strength from 1200 this morning through 1200 UTC
Tuesday. The NHC forecast calls for a peak intensity that is close
to the FSSE and HCCA models in 36 to 48 hours. After that time,
John will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable
environment which is expected to cause rapid weakening.

John is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The tropical
storm should turn northwestward and accelerate over the next day or
so as it is steered around the western portion of a mid-level ridge
that is centered over northern Mexico. As noted in the previous
discussion, some interaction with Ileana is likely, which could
cause some slow down of the forward speed of John. However since
John is the larger system, it should remain the dominant tropical
cyclone. The latest dynamical model guidance was similar to the
previous cycle and no significant change to the NHC forecast was
required. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the ECMWF and
is close to the HFIP corrected consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 15.5N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 25.5N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 26.8N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:26 pm

06/1745 UTC 15.9N 107.6W T3.5/3.5 JOHN -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:54 pm

EP, 12, 2018080618, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1079W, 60, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 90, 70, 70, 1008, 160, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOHN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
EP, 12, 2018080618, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1079W, 60, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 40, 30, 30, 1008, 160, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOHN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:05 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOHN EP122018 08/06/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 77 87 97 110 121 114 99 81 63 50 37
V (KT) LAND 60 67 77 87 97 110 121 114 99 81 63 50 37
V (KT) LGEM 60 68 76 84 90 100 101 91 71 56 44 36 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 8 12 10 8 10 11 7 3 3 5 16 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 317 22 20 9 9 331 314 330 60 342 271 246 250
SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.1 27.9 25.4 23.0 22.4 21.6 20.9 20.5
POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 165 156 144 118 93 86 78 70 66
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 74 74 75 76 76 75 76 74 77 75 72 67 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 29 32 34 34 40 37 35 31 26 25 22
850 MB ENV VOR 0 14 20 19 34 42 50 51 77 98 92 62 77
200 MB DIV 117 124 121 146 103 49 79 49 48 18 12 1 -1
700-850 TADV -1 -8 -6 -8 -4 10 11 -2 -2 -9 -2 -3 3
LAND (KM) 494 494 503 516 530 429 406 406 474 524 655 822 975
LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.9 19.3 20.9 22.4 23.9 25.2 26.3 26.9 27.2
LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.4 108.8 109.4 110.0 111.5 113.3 115.3 117.3 119.4 121.4 123.6 125.8
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 9 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 24 19 14 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 62.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 15. 15. 14. 10. 3. 1. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 7. 11. 23. 29. 23. 11. 2. -5. -11. -16.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 17. 27. 37. 50. 62. 54. 39. 21. 3. -10. -23.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.9 107.9

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 10.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 13.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 12.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 3.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.82 13.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 10.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 12.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -9.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.9

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 5.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 45.1% 73.8% 69.5% 60.9% 45.4% 50.0% 23.7% 9.5%
Logistic: 38.3% 64.1% 48.3% 37.3% 9.8% 32.7% 3.9% 0.8%
Bayesian: 46.1% 57.6% 67.9% 52.5% 6.4% 24.0% 5.6% 0.1%
Consensus: 43.2% 65.1% 61.9% 50.2% 20.5% 35.6% 11.1% 3.5%
DTOPS: 35.0% 96.0% 90.0% 66.0% 68.0% 61.0% 17.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby NotSparta » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:31 pm

Is it me, or is there an eye starting to clear?

Image
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:18 pm

certainly looks like one. I'd go 65 knots.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:29 pm

NotSparta wrote:Is it me, or is there an eye starting to clear?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/zCx3sNI.jpg[img]


Yep it's an eye. We'll have some microwave passes soon that'll confirm if they don't miss the center.
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Image

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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Hurricane

#55 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:51 pm

Hurricane John Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

John has continued to intensify since the previous advisory.
Visible satellite images continue to indicate an increase in
banding and very recent pictures show the formation of a banding
eye. As a result, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt,
which is based on a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 4.0 and UW/CIMSS
objective Dvorak estimates that are close to 65 kt. John becomes
the fifth hurricane of the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane
season.

John is forecast to remain within a very favorable environment for
strengthening during the next day or so. Although some of the
intensity guidance is not quite as aggressive as this morning, the
various rapid intensification indices still show a high likelihood
of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours. The NHC forecast
once again calls for rapid intensification and brings John to major
hurricane strength within 36 h. The updated NHC intensity forecast
is near the upper-end of the guidance in best agreement with the
latest SHIPS, HCCA, and FSSE models. After 48 h, John will be
moving over much cooler waters and into a less conducive
thermodynamic environment. This should result in rapid weakening,
and John is forecast to become a remnant low by day 5.

John is moving northwestward at about 7 kt. The hurricane is
forecast to move northwestward around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days. Once
the system weakens and becomes a more shallow cyclone late in the
forecast period, it should turn westward in the low-level flow.
The overall track envelope has shifted eastward this cycle, with
the GFS and HWRF along the eastern edge of the track guidance
envelope while the ECMWF and UKMET are along the western side.
The new NHC forecast has been adjusted eastward and lies between
the ECMWF and the various consensus aids.

Due to the eastward shift in the forecast track and the predicted
increase in the size of John, interests in the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.0N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.8N 108.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.1N 109.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 24.3N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 26.6N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 27.2N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Hurricane

#56 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:14 pm

I take back my predictions on John, I don't like the structure. Too broad and loose for explosive intensification. Eyewall is trash. I saw something that wasn't there this morning as the banding wasn't swirling in the same manner as one would think of EI.

EDIT: Looking at IR John's appearance is even more atrocious than I initially thought. Somehow John is devoid of deep convection in a spot where hot towers should be plentiful due to the environment. I don't even know how John will reach 85 knots anytime soon. Ileana must be robbing John's head (north and east side) of energy. Also sprawling. John must have realized its not 2015 and is 2018'ing.
Last edited by Cyclenall on Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Hurricane

#57 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:00 pm

any signs that socal could get remnants after hes dissipated?
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Hurricane

#58 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:02 pm

Great structure but cloud tops seem to be quickly warming. This is looking weird. Odds of a Cat 3/4 are dropping.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Hurricane

#59 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:29 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOHN EP122018 08/07/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 79 85 89 95 96 90 82 71 60 50 43
V (KT) LAND 65 71 79 85 89 95 96 90 82 71 60 50 43
V (KT) LGEM 65 71 77 81 84 83 76 66 55 45 39 34 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 15 16 16 4 3 2 4 8 15 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 4 0 1 0 2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3
SHEAR DIR 10 50 31 17 360 322 295 312 258 217 214 235 203
SST (C) 30.1 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.6 28.1 27.0 23.5 22.7 21.4 21.1 20.7 20.5
POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 165 164 161 145 135 99 90 75 72 67 65
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -50.6 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 75 76 78 78 77 76 76 75 73 73 73 68 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 33 33 33 35 33 30 28 25 22 21 20
850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 18 44 46 44 55 57 60 80 67 45 47
200 MB DIV 142 137 143 150 98 6 60 30 16 -1 21 3 25
700-850 TADV -3 -4 -7 -3 2 19 7 0 -1 -7 -7 3 3
LAND (KM) 491 498 509 520 450 352 367 393 437 556 712 843 966
LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.2 18.9 20.4 21.8 23.5 25.2 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.3
LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.9 109.4 110.1 110.7 112.1 113.8 115.9 118.3 120.4 122.2 124.0 125.8
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 10 10 10 12 13 13 10 8 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 30 28 23 18 15 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 29.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -11. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 6. 4. -1. -5. -6. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 9. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 20. 24. 30. 31. 25. 17. 6. -5. -14. -22.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.4 108.4

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 6.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.46 5.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 1.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.88 9.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 6.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 7.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -5.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.7

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 33.6% 56.4% 38.3% 31.9% 15.2% 20.0% 17.6% 6.4%
Logistic: 15.6% 25.8% 13.0% 8.0% 1.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Bayesian: 9.7% 20.8% 22.4% 10.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Consensus: 19.7% 34.3% 24.5% 16.7% 5.8% 8.1% 6.2% 2.2%
DTOPS: 32.0% 80.0% 64.0% 41.0% 40.0% 30.0% 1.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Hurricane

#60 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:31 pm

06/2345 UTC 16.6N 108.4W T4.0/4.0 JOHN -- East Pacific
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