Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 99L)

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gatorcane
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Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 99L)

#1 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:56 am

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to
become conducive for some gradual development while the system moves
slowly west over the next few days. By the middle of next week,
stronger upper-level winds could limit the chance for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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NDG
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#2 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:11 am

And just this quick a TW flares up in the short term without model support from just a few days ago, it helps this particular TW that is closer to the 10th latitude & ITCZ away from the cooler SSTs to the north and away from the core of the SAL.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#3 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:18 am

Saved image:

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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#4 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:24 am

ECMWF track:

Image
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#5 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:40 am

:uarrow: If it gains latitude like the Euro shows it will have no chance to do much after Monday. IMO.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#6 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:01 am

No tropical wave near the highlighted area by the NHC, perhaps is the forecasted vorticity to develop out of the ITCZ and approaching TW near the C.V. Isalnds by the models.

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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#7 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:40 am

Any model support?
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#8 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:23 am

I see multiple spins on the trough axis. Which one can make a play?
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#9 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:40 am

Funny how the NHC removed Debby then on the next TWO indicates an area that would normally only be mentioned in the Tropical Weather Discussion. Certainly an empty map in almost mid-August makes them worry about tweets similar to "Why do we need the NHC?"

As the others mentioned, it just appears to be an ITCZ disturbance. But looking to the north, there is a very large area of cool-weather cumulus and dust.

Actually, the disturbance to the west of the NHC area looks healthier, but that is also very low latitude.

P.S. As TWC mentioned this morning, the westerlies are very strong across the Caribbean at present.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#10 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:51 am

Frank2 wrote:Funny how the NHC removed Debby then on the next TWO indicates an area that would normally only be mentioned in the Tropical Weather Discussion. Certainly an empty map in almost mid-August makes them worry about tweets similar to "Why do we need the NHC?"

As the others mentioned, it just appears to be an ITCZ disturbance. But looking to the north, there is a very large area of cool-weather cumulus and dust.

Actually, the disturbance to the west of the NHC area looks healthier, but that is also very low latitude.

P.S. As TWC mentioned this morning, the westerlies are very strong across the Caribbean at present.


I suspect that literally no one would tweet “why do we need the NHC” after last season. Models slightly develop it, the NHC gave it a low chance, where is the issue here?
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#11 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:07 am

Pretty good ensemble support for at least a short lived weak system.

[b]
@MJVentrice
Following Following @MJVentrice
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Possibility increasing for a short-lived MDR system in the coming week. Note the lack of shading over the western tropical Atlantic suggests that if this system does spin up, it will likely spin down fairly quickly. GEFS bulled up at 90%; ECMWF 60%; NHC 20%

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1027909382674243584


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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#12 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:09 am

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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#13 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:19 am

Am I wrong to say that I see two LLC’s?
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#14 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:59 am

Shows that even with no model support for the basin at all 5 days ago doesn't mean something will try to form.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#15 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:03 pm

Don't think this will amount to much (though a quick spin-up is possible). However, it's a sign the active part of the season is getting close.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#16 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:20 pm

I've been looking at this the last few days, and kinda liked the way it looked even when it was devoid of convection.....low level turning to my eyes. Something to look at at least.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:44 pm

An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are likely to
limit development of this system for the next day or two, but some
gradual development is possible after that time while the system
moves slowly westward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#18 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:49 pm

:uarrow: Interesting that the latest outlook mentions conditions are favorable after a couple of days instead of becoming unfavorable.
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#19 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:08 pm

Found that interesting too!
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Re: Area Between Africa and Lesser Antilles 10/20

#20 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:37 pm

I didn't even notice that part! :P
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