2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1281 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:32 am

GFS spins up a surface low in the ITCZ in 30 hrs at 10N 37W.
Look like it'll move into warm water.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1282 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:16 am

The ECMWF has something now as well, just 48 hours from now:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1283 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:16 pm

Image
0 likes   

Twisted-core
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Joined: Fri May 11, 2018 9:20 pm

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1284 Postby Twisted-core » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:16 am

Bit of interest in a fish latter on thinks ec on the run. Note the other small energy that shoots off towards the gom.

Image

https://imgur.com/aQLRTOE
0 likes   

User avatar
Dylan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 337
Age: 29
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
Location: New Orleans, LA

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1285 Postby Dylan » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:44 am

Support of the European fish storm is non-existent from both the EPS and GEFS members.
1 likes   
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1286 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:49 pm

GEM now has something about but further east of the Euro:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Dylan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 337
Age: 29
Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
Location: New Orleans, LA

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1287 Postby Dylan » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:44 pm

A couple of EPS ensemble members are hinting at some Cape Verde action after day 10.
1 likes   
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1288 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:14 pm

Dylan wrote:A couple of EPS ensemble members are hinting at some Cape Verde action after day 10.


Is that with the strong flow coming off Africa at the end of the run? Or is that the wave after?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1289 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:10 pm

Cape Verde season will be in full swing in 10 days

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1290 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:39 pm

Image

GFS showing a nice moisture surge near the end of the run.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1291 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:12 pm

Hammy wrote:https://i.imgur.com/DbWv8Ak.png

GFS showing a nice moisture surge near the end of the run.


Yep and GEFS surface pressure anomalies in the deep MDR are low as well in the long-range when they have been high all season so far. Things could be starting to align for some Cape Verde activity towards end of this month as climo suggests:

Image
1 likes   

Twisted-core
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 252
Joined: Fri May 11, 2018 9:20 pm

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1292 Postby Twisted-core » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:11 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/ehExsxE
On the plot it appears sst is still on the anonymously cool side across the EQ mdr region.
Last edited by Twisted-core on Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
StrongWind
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:02 pm
Location: Deerfield Beach, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1293 Postby StrongWind » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:27 pm

Sep 8th, for example, shows the peak for Majors. Is the graph showing this as the date of storm genisys, the date it became a major, or the # of majors on this particular date?

Nimbus wrote:Cape Verde season will be in full swing in 10 days

Image
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1294 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:36 pm

StrongWind wrote:Sep 8th, for example, shows the peak for Majors. Is the graph showing this as the date of storm genisys, the date it became a major, or the # of majors on this particular date?

Nimbus wrote:Cape Verde season will be in full swing in 10 days

Image


I’m almost sure it is # of majors in existence on each date.

Edit: Upon further thought, that has to be what it is. It certainly isn’t # of geneses because otherwise this would be saying there’s, for example, about an average of one TS genesis per year on Sept. 11, which is way higher than reality.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1295 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:13 am

GFS showing a potential precursor system at the end of the latest run .

Image
Image
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3946
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1297 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:38 pm

Interesting that UKMET is initializing a wave at 45W/10N but the Euro and GFS don't see anything for now. I wonder if that was the same one that came off Africa a couple of days ago?
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1298 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:34 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Interesting that UKMET is initializing a wave at 45W/10N but the Euro and GFS don't see anything for now. I wonder if that was the same one that came off Africa a couple of days ago?


That wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 9th. It has a close to zero percent chance of developing. Interesting that none of the models develops even a phantom storm over the next week or two (not counting that non-tropical low way up north).

Here's an archived TPW shot of the wave moving off Africa on the 9th:
ftp://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/pub/mtpw2/images/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/201808/comp20180809.130000_tpw.png
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1299 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:14 pm

This place and these threads are so eerily quiet. Hard to believe it's the middle of August. :roll:
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1300 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:37 pm

SoupBone wrote:This place and these threads are so eerily quiet. Hard to believe it's the middle of August. :roll:


Could be totally different 15 days from now, a big "could be", if the Euro's H20 velocity forecast is correct.
2 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cainjamin, Google Adsense [Bot], KirbyDude25, NotSparta, pepecool20, USTropics and 56 guests