Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 99L)
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
There is currently an enhanced Kelvin Wave traversing this region supporting the increase in convection.
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
Fortunately, the strong +NAO pattern over the past several months has induced strong subtropical low-level ridging and enhanced trades over the MDR, which adds up to a feedback loop in which cooler SSTs via trades and SAL also induce upper-level convergence (sinking air) over the region, in turn bolstering PV (that is, TUTT) activity and adding westerly shear to the already-strong low-level easterlies. This makes the current situation over the tropical Atlantic extremely hostile even for robust waves that emerge from West Africa. The same holds true for the Caribbean, which is just as dry and sheared. This current wave is going to continue to struggle in these conditions, even as it heads westward into the Caribbean. Storms that manage to find a proverbial "sweet spot" will most likely be in the subtropics, and that location, barring blocking ridging, might be too far north for systems to affect the U.S. mainland.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1027998679255449600
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1028036895836499968
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1025537174324699136
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1025537171975880704
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1025537175344082944
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1027998679255449600
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1028036895836499968
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1025537174324699136
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1025537171975880704
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1025537175344082944
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
Looks like a swirl getting ready to fire off.
12N 53W
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider
12N 53W
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider
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- gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
CMC a bit more bullish with stronger 850mb vorticity. Day 2 image below east of Lesser Antilles and day 5 just north of Puerto Rico:
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
Swirl in some decent CAPE and getting a good feed of ITCZ TPW.
Shear is not bad.
This may fire up in the next 24 hrs or so.
Shear is not bad.
This may fire up in the next 24 hrs or so.
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
Respectable drop in surface pressure as the wave passed this buoy.
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
it getting time of year but this year shear been strong and sal for td ot ts form
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
GCANE wrote:Respectable drop in surface pressure as the wave passed this buoy.
Is this the system that begins our season? In the model thread, there's something behind this one on the GFS. This could be the precursor.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
Nice looking wave with some broad rotation, saved loop before the sun goes down out there:
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
Euro and GFS in the short term showing nothing but open waves. GFS does however show 2 systems forming at the end of the run.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
Given the vigorous convection with a favorable upper-level environment and the fact it is heading towards the Lesser Antilles, might be worth a mention by the NHC in its next outlook.
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
If you replay the loop, you can almost see a hint of some spin
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
Yes, there's certainly some rotation occurring. Not sure at what level, though.AutoPenalti wrote:If you replay the loop, you can almost see a hint of some slight spin
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
abajan wrote:Yes, there's certainly some rotation occurring. Not sure at what level, though.AutoPenalti wrote:If you replay the loop, you can almost see a hint of some slight spin
It may be mid-level considering it's still embedded in the ITCZ, but I would just have to wait till tomorrow.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
AutoPenalti wrote:If you replay the loop, you can almost see a hint of some spin
Is the spin some distance from the deeper convection?
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
Nimbus wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:If you replay the loop, you can almost see a hint of some spin
Is the spin some distance from the deeper convection?
No, I did notice that as well, but if you look a bit closer you can actually see a brief moment of spin embedded in the convection.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave ESE of Lesser Antilles
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