ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Quite the shift...
May have to monitor this system, any shift west could put people in the way like Eastern Canada but am not willing to go farther west yet
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
Time to start watching this. This latest run puts future Florence right on my doorstep.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Quite the shift...
May have to monitor this system, any shift west could put people in the way like Eastern Canada but am not willing to go farther west yet
GFS has it within 4 degrees of Bermuda, and the last Westward shift was 6 degrees, so well within striking distance. No one was ignoring this system based on 10-day steering guidance though - that would be silly.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
06z GFS looks to be jogging back east again. Only 136 hours out so far but it's a slower storm and a deeper trough. That's good news for Bermuda
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
Curving back west, but this is too far out, GFS skill at this range is really bad.
I'm also noticing both models are trending less intense for both Atlantic AND EPAC, which seems kind of suspicious.
I'm also noticing both models are trending less intense for both Atlantic AND EPAC, which seems kind of suspicious.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
I am not surprised by the westward shift of the models, a weaker system and strong Atlantic ridging this year would mean a more westward track, how far west is still in the air. IMO.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
06z GFS shows an earlier recurve, but then has the ridge building back in and deflecting the system westward again at ~32N.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
not sure how good is navgem got arl-6 moving more west high building up here link https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=210
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
The 00Z EPS mean has shifted considerably farther W (and even more intense) in the long range, indicating a greater threat to Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
Shell Mound wrote:The 00Z EPS mean has shifted considerably farther W (and even more intense) in the long range, indicating a greater threat to Bermuda.
The 12Z GFS is shifting westward as well, particularly after 120 hours. It's another 4-6 degrees of movement, and the ridge looks higher.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
12z GFS is a pretty straightforward recurve with little drama.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
We are talking long-range but once again there are some GFS ensembles bringing this all the way west getting blocked by a ridge. Check out the circle east of Florida heading west. Chances appear low, but I would prefer to see no GFS ensembles.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
It picks up intensity as it recurves.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
It doesnt seem to do anything with anything out there now. wow. that's pretty remarkable at how utterly quiet that run is. Make me wonder what's up.SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
Yes but it’s been inching west with each run so Bermuda can’t rule out significant impacts yet or even eastern Canada but we’ll have to see if this gets trapped by the ridge or is up and out, I can envision 4 different scenarios
1. Most likely track out to sea around 50w
2. A track similar to Fabian 2003
3. A track similar to Isabel 2003
4. A track similar to Andrew 1992
None of these scenarios can be taken off the table until sometime next week as the models are showing in their ensembles all the above scenarios
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models
otowntiger wrote:It doesnt seem to do anything with anything out there now. wow. that's pretty remarkable at how utterly quiet that run is. Make me wonder what's up.SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
??? There are two likely hurricanes and potentially 4 TC’s on that run.
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