ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#21 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:56 pm

Quite the shift...

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#22 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:59 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Quite the shift...

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May have to monitor this system, any shift west could put people in the way like Eastern Canada but am not willing to go farther west yet
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#23 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:03 am

full run

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#24 Postby Kazmit » Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:19 am

Time to start watching this. This latest run puts future Florence right on my doorstep. :eek:
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#25 Postby plasticup » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:03 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Quite the shift...

Image


May have to monitor this system, any shift west could put people in the way like Eastern Canada but am not willing to go farther west yet

GFS has it within 4 degrees of Bermuda, and the last Westward shift was 6 degrees, so well within striking distance. No one was ignoring this system based on 10-day steering guidance though - that would be silly.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#26 Postby plasticup » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:09 am

06z GFS looks to be jogging back east again. Only 136 hours out so far but it's a slower storm and a deeper trough. That's good news for Bermuda
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#27 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:53 am

Curving back west, but this is too far out, GFS skill at this range is really bad.

I'm also noticing both models are trending less intense for both Atlantic AND EPAC, which seems kind of suspicious.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#28 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:11 am

I am not surprised by the westward shift of the models, a weaker system and strong Atlantic ridging this year would mean a more westward track, how far west is still in the air. IMO.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#29 Postby plasticup » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 am

06z GFS shows an earlier recurve, but then has the ridge building back in and deflecting the system westward again at ~32N.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#30 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:51 am

not sure how good is navgem got arl-6 moving more west high building up here link https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=210
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#31 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:20 am

The 00Z EPS mean has shifted considerably farther W (and even more intense) in the long range, indicating a greater threat to Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#32 Postby plasticup » Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:26 am

Shell Mound wrote:The 00Z EPS mean has shifted considerably farther W (and even more intense) in the long range, indicating a greater threat to Bermuda.

The 12Z GFS is shifting westward as well, particularly after 120 hours. It's another 4-6 degrees of movement, and the ridge looks higher.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#33 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:51 am

12z GFS is a pretty straightforward recurve with little drama.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#34 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:33 pm

We are talking long-range but once again there are some GFS ensembles bringing this all the way west getting blocked by a ridge. Check out the circle east of Florida heading west. Chances appear low, but I would prefer to see no GFS ensembles.

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#35 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:37 pm

Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#36 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:57 pm

SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.


It picks up intensity as it recurves.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#37 Postby otowntiger » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:04 pm

SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
It doesnt seem to do anything with anything out there now. wow. that's pretty remarkable at how utterly quiet that run is. Make me wonder what's up.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#38 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:07 pm

SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.

Yes but it’s been inching west with each run so Bermuda can’t rule out significant impacts yet or even eastern Canada but we’ll have to see if this gets trapped by the ridge or is up and out, I can envision 4 different scenarios

1. Most likely track out to sea around 50w

2. A track similar to Fabian 2003

3. A track similar to Isabel 2003

4. A track similar to Andrew 1992

None of these scenarios can be taken off the table until sometime next week as the models are showing in their ensembles all the above scenarios
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#39 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:15 pm

Blocked on 12Z Euro???

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#40 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:18 pm

otowntiger wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Afternoon euro does nothing with this potential tc keeps it as a minimal sheared ts into the open atlantic.
It doesnt seem to do anything with anything out there now. wow. that's pretty remarkable at how utterly quiet that run is. Make me wonder what's up.


??? There are two likely hurricanes and potentially 4 TC’s on that run.
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