ATL: FLORENCE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
MetroMike
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#81 Postby MetroMike » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:38 am

In Joe Bastardi's Saturday summary video he is hinting that Florence could move West toward the southern US.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#82 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:53 am

Wow the 12Z GFS lets Florence escape but barely this time. Look at that ridge building over SE Canada, not to mention it just misses getting underneath the building Bermuda High which would send it west or WSW at 234 hours (second image):

Image

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2899
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#83 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:15 pm

Yeah, 12z GFS makes Florence significantly stronger through 192 hours, resulting in a more northward bias. ECMWF has a weaker system with a weaker trough, followed by a ridge building in that forces Florence west towards the US.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1709
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#84 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:19 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Yeah, 12z GFS makes Florence significantly stronger through 192 hours, resulting in a more northward bias. ECMWF has a weaker system with a weaker trough, followed by a ridge building in that forces Florence west towards the US.

Classic GFS vs Euro situation. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
0 likes   

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#85 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:44 pm

There is rather strong agreement among the 12Z GEFS ensemble members even in the long range. The trend is significantly farther W compared to 00Z:

Image

Compare these runs to those of the most recent (00Z) EPS. There seems to be good agreement between the GEFS and EPS regarding a threat to Bermuda:

Image
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2899
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#86 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:45 pm

At least from what I've seen in the EPAC this season, especially with Lane, is that the ECMWF is consistently too weak and too far south.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#87 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:23 pm

This setup at 120 hours on the 00Z ECMWF for Florence should drive it west or WNW. We will see how the run turns out:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2899
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#88 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:36 pm

Looking like the 12z ECMWF will recurve Florence, ridge slightly weaker.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#89 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:37 pm

:uarrow: Nope, not so fast gatorcane!

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1665
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#90 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:45 pm

Looks like the Euro is back to the recurve idea.
0 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#91 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:46 pm

Glad to know 00z run was a fluke with 12z back to showing safe recurve east of Bermuda

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#92 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:49 pm

Looks like after this mornings brief Euro scare that consensus is growing that Florence will recurve near or east of Bermuda.

GFS :darrow:
Image

Euro :darrow:
Image

CMC :darrow:
Image

FV3-GFS :darrow:
Image
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#93 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:50 pm

Still recurve, but continues to shift SW on each run.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#94 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:51 pm

Blown Away wrote:Still recurve, but continues to shift SW on each run.

What continues to shift SW? This was a big shift east from this mornings 00z run.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2899
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#95 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:01 pm

End of 12z ECMWF is still kind of ominous with Florence; ridge builds in over it, heading changes from NNW to NW.

Still a lot of variables on the table, and these run-to-run changes are just showing us possibilities. As always, anything beyond 120 hours is not even worth really taking seriously.
5 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1665
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#96 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:12 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:End of 12z ECMWF is still kind of ominous with Florence; ridge builds in over it, heading changes from NNW to NW.

Still a lot of variables on the table, and these run-to-run changes are just showing us possibilities. As always, anything beyond 120 hours is not even worth really taking seriously.


It gets uncomfortably close to Bermuda in this run also.
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4665
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#97 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:27 pm

Boy, at least for the time being it's really gonna be an ebb and flow game of inches. So much dependent on how model run after run projection of the fluctuation of N.W. Atlantic mid level heights ultimately plays out. Timing really is everything as we watch model runs depicting each fairly quick moving short wave within the broader picture of a predominantly progressive zonal pattern over the Eastern CONUS. During so many past years we'd seem to have a long wave pattern that largely protected the Eastern Seaboard with each short wave trough that would drop into place there. Ah yes such were the Ninel Conde days.....
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#98 Postby plasticup » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:40 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:As always, anything beyond 120 hours is not even worth really taking seriously.

It's worth considering in the "this thing is possible, not garanteed" kind of way. You can think of the many models as showing the range of possibilities. Rarely does something happen that no model predicted.
0 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:56 pm

The best analog I can think of might be Carrie 1957?
0 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#100 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:29 pm

12z Euro Ensemble EPS

Image

12z GFS Ensemble GEFS

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests