ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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MetroMike
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#81 Postby MetroMike » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:38 am

In Joe Bastardi's Saturday summary video he is hinting that Florence could move West toward the southern US.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#82 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:53 am

Wow the 12Z GFS lets Florence escape but barely this time. Look at that ridge building over SE Canada, not to mention it just misses getting underneath the building Bermuda High which would send it west or WSW at 234 hours (second image):

Image

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#83 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:15 pm

Yeah, 12z GFS makes Florence significantly stronger through 192 hours, resulting in a more northward bias. ECMWF has a weaker system with a weaker trough, followed by a ridge building in that forces Florence west towards the US.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#84 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:19 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Yeah, 12z GFS makes Florence significantly stronger through 192 hours, resulting in a more northward bias. ECMWF has a weaker system with a weaker trough, followed by a ridge building in that forces Florence west towards the US.

Classic GFS vs Euro situation. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#85 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:44 pm

There is rather strong agreement among the 12Z GEFS ensemble members even in the long range. The trend is significantly farther W compared to 00Z:

Image

Compare these runs to those of the most recent (00Z) EPS. There seems to be good agreement between the GEFS and EPS regarding a threat to Bermuda:

Image
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#86 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:45 pm

At least from what I've seen in the EPAC this season, especially with Lane, is that the ECMWF is consistently too weak and too far south.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#87 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:23 pm

This setup at 120 hours on the 00Z ECMWF for Florence should drive it west or WNW. We will see how the run turns out:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#88 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:36 pm

Looking like the 12z ECMWF will recurve Florence, ridge slightly weaker.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#89 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:37 pm

:uarrow: Nope, not so fast gatorcane!

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#90 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:45 pm

Looks like the Euro is back to the recurve idea.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#91 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:46 pm

Glad to know 00z run was a fluke with 12z back to showing safe recurve east of Bermuda

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#92 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:49 pm

Looks like after this mornings brief Euro scare that consensus is growing that Florence will recurve near or east of Bermuda.

GFS :darrow:
Image

Euro :darrow:
Image

CMC :darrow:
Image

FV3-GFS :darrow:
Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#93 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:50 pm

Still recurve, but continues to shift SW on each run.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#94 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:51 pm

Blown Away wrote:Still recurve, but continues to shift SW on each run.

What continues to shift SW? This was a big shift east from this mornings 00z run.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#95 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:01 pm

End of 12z ECMWF is still kind of ominous with Florence; ridge builds in over it, heading changes from NNW to NW.

Still a lot of variables on the table, and these run-to-run changes are just showing us possibilities. As always, anything beyond 120 hours is not even worth really taking seriously.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#96 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:12 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:End of 12z ECMWF is still kind of ominous with Florence; ridge builds in over it, heading changes from NNW to NW.

Still a lot of variables on the table, and these run-to-run changes are just showing us possibilities. As always, anything beyond 120 hours is not even worth really taking seriously.


It gets uncomfortably close to Bermuda in this run also.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#97 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:27 pm

Boy, at least for the time being it's really gonna be an ebb and flow game of inches. So much dependent on how model run after run projection of the fluctuation of N.W. Atlantic mid level heights ultimately plays out. Timing really is everything as we watch model runs depicting each fairly quick moving short wave within the broader picture of a predominantly progressive zonal pattern over the Eastern CONUS. During so many past years we'd seem to have a long wave pattern that largely protected the Eastern Seaboard with each short wave trough that would drop into place there. Ah yes such were the Ninel Conde days.....
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#98 Postby plasticup » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:40 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:As always, anything beyond 120 hours is not even worth really taking seriously.

It's worth considering in the "this thing is possible, not garanteed" kind of way. You can think of the many models as showing the range of possibilities. Rarely does something happen that no model predicted.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:56 pm

The best analog I can think of might be Carrie 1957?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#100 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:29 pm

12z Euro Ensemble EPS

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12z GFS Ensemble GEFS

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