Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)
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- Clearcloudz
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
00Z ECMWF Accumulated Total precipitation map to Hour 156
Big difference is much less totals as everyone is mentioning.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090200/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180908-1200z.html
Big difference is much less totals as everyone is mentioning.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090200/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180908-1200z.html
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
I really hope this is a trend toward it caving to the GFS. It's a much better solution for pretty much everyone. It's getting to be crunch time.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
[Tweet][/Tweet]
Euro has it going west against and stalling in Texas not caving towards gfs
SoupBone wrote:I really hope this is a trend toward it caving to the GFS. It's a much better solution for pretty much everyone. It's getting to be crunch time.
Euro has it going west against and stalling in Texas not caving towards gfs
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
SoupBone wrote:I really hope this is a trend toward it caving to the GFS. It's a much better solution for pretty much everyone. It's getting to be crunch time.
I had a feeling the Euro would cave to the GFS tonight. Euro overdid the ridging it’s prior two runs and flooded Texas.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
192 moving into Arkansas
Definitely a much better run
Definitely a much better run
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#neversummer
Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
stormlover2013 wrote:[Tweet][/Tweet]SoupBone wrote:I really hope this is a trend toward it caving to the GFS. It's a much better solution for pretty much everyone. It's getting to be crunch time.
Euro has it going west against and stalling in Texas not caving towards gfs
Ok maybe caving is too strong, but it's definitely moved toward the GFS's solution rather than the other way around. It's not showing devastating rainfall either like in previous runs.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
Cpv17 wrote:SoupBone wrote:I really hope this is a trend toward it caving to the GFS. It's a much better solution for pretty much everyone. It's getting to be crunch time.
I had a feeling the Euro would cave to the GFS tonight. Euro overdid the ridging it’s prior two runs and flooded Texas.
It didn’t cave to gfs lol it shows the system in Texas for almost 3 days
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
Well guys, that was exciting while it lasted
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- Clearcloudz
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
mcheer23 wrote:We'll see what happens 12z with EURO.
00Z ECMWF ensembles could paint a different picture.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
ForexTidbits wrote:mcheer23 wrote:We'll see what happens 12z with EURO.
00Z ECMWF ensembles could paint a different picture.
What U mean forex?
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
Lol nothing caved.. it is still in the ensemble spread.. deep breaths everyone.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
mcheer23 wrote:We'll see what happens 12z with EURO.
No doubt it can change, but I'll take this run as a step in a more positive direction, for now. That high and how deep it digs is going to close the final chapter of this story.
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- Clearcloudz
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
stormlover2013 wrote:ForexTidbits wrote:mcheer23 wrote:We'll see what happens 12z with EURO.
00Z ECMWF ensembles could paint a different picture.
What U mean forex?
Have to wait and see what the other members think, can't just go off of one operational run.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
Aric Dunn wrote:Lol nothing caved.. it is still in the ensemble spread.. deep breaths everyone.
I corrected my language (though I said caving, not caved) but you can't say that run wasn't more positive.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
I'm thinking the last run may have simply been a fluke, an over-correction (on both systems) so to speak, bringing Florence too far east and going too strong/west with this one.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
SoupBone wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Lol nothing caved.. it is still in the ensemble spread.. deep breaths everyone.
I corrected my language (though I said caving, not caved) but you can't say that run wasn't more positive.
Euro has been doing what it’s be doing keeps it in Texas for 3 days, not as strong but still pushing it west.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
stormlover2013 wrote:SoupBone wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Lol nothing caved.. it is still in the ensemble spread.. deep breaths everyone.
I corrected my language (though I said caving, not caved) but you can't say that run wasn't more positive.
Euro has been doing what it’s be doing keeps it in Texas for 3 days, not as strong but still pushing it west.
That's not the whole picture though. The rainfall potential totals tanked (and that's an appropriate word choice). From 29" to 2.5"-5" in the Greater Houston Area. I don't care if it sits over Texas for 20 days if it only drops manageable amounts of rain.
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
Interesting...while the 0z operational Canadian model shifted north, the 0z Canadian ensembles shifted west.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2018090200&fh=120
0z Euro ensemble is running now.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2018090200&fh=120
0z Euro ensemble is running now.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Turks & Caicos/SE Bahamas
South Texas Storms wrote:Interesting...while the 0z operational Canadian model shifted north, the 0z Canadian ensembles shifted west.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2018090200&fh=120
0z Euro ensemble is running now.
Trying to stay awake for it...zzzzzzzz.
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