ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BYG Jacob]

This is why anybody posting season canceled in August should be ignored.

[Ptarmigan]

Soon to be Helene.

[Gustywind]

First appareance as a special feature... no surprise there.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018


A strong tropical wave has its axis extending from 04N26W to13N25W and to near 19N23W, with a 1007 mb low on the axis near 11N25W. This system depicts a broad area of low pressure with disorganized cloudiness. Deep convection, for the time being, is rather limited. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of aline from 13N24W to 12.5N28W, within 30 nm of another line from 08N27W to 07N30W and within 30 nm of 14N24W. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more information.

[RL3AO]

And the wave behind it is on the 5-day outlook now. Would never have expected this two weeks ago

Even the slowest seasons usually manage to put together an active week or two in September.

[CrazyC83]

The way things are going this week, this may be Helene by tomorrow.

[chaser1]

The way things are going this week, this may be Helene by tomorrow.

Before you know it we'll all be so tired from the dizzying pace that doctors will have to invent a new diagnosis to identify those of us afflicted by Tropical Cyclone Apathy"

[CrazyC83]

The way things are going this week, this may be Helene by tomorrow.

Before you know it we'll all be so tired from the dizzying pace that doctors will have to invent a new diagnosis to identify those of us afflicted by Tropical Cyclone Apathy"

I'm just thinking - when was the last time there were two active hurricanes at once in both the Atlantic and EPAC?

[JaxGator]

The way things are going this week, this may be Helene by tomorrow.

Before you know it we'll all be so tired from the dizzying pace that doctors will have to invent a new diagnosis to identify those of us afflicted by Tropical Cyclone Apathy"

I'm just thinking - when was the last time there were two active hurricanes at once in both the Atlantic and EPAC?

It's been awhile I believe. Hurricanes Andrew and Lester in 1992.

[cycloneye]

Came out very late but here is the 00z Best track.

AL, 92, 2018090500, , BEST, 0, 104N, 260W, 25, 1007, LO

[GCANE]

Very broad 850mb vort.
Obviously will be tracking nearly due west.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO=50%/90%

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week
while the system moves west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Frank2]

The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

[abajan]

The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

Well, let's hope that pans out, because both the 00z Euro and 06z GFS, take 92L into the Leewards next week Thursday. Having said that, the NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks.

[Gustywind]

The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

Well, let's hope that pans out, because both the 00z Euro and 06z GFS, take 92L into the Leewards next week Thursday. Having said that, the NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks.

Great analysis Abajan that make sens! Anyway, we have a lot of time to Watch it. By the way, the other twave Inside Africa forecasted to emerge during the couple of days too, could be player given the westward projection anticipated. Looks like a busy September, all the twaves must be monitored as usual.

[jlauderdal]

The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

Well, let's hope that pans out, because both the 00z Euro and 06z GFS, take 92L into the Leewards next week Thursday. Having said that, the NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks.

i havent seen a projected track from NHC beyond 5 days...problem is florence exits and a ridge builds in behind, lets see how gfs and euro handle it in the next few days

[GCANE]

Fresh WINDSAT

[abajan]

The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

Well, let's hope that pans out, because both the 00z Euro and 06z GFS, take 92L into the Leewards next week Thursday. Having said that, the NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks.

i havent seen a projected track from NHC beyond 5 days ...

Quite right. I thought about that after posting, but didn't bother editing. lol

[cycloneye]

Is slowly organizing.

[SoupBone]

The reason NHC is forecasting a similar track for 92 is seen in the upper left - Florence is moving very slowly and leaving a trough for 92: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

Well, let's hope that pans out, because both the 00z Euro and 06z GFS, take 92L into the Leewards next week Thursday. Having said that, the NHC is usually quite good with projected tracks.

i havent seen a projected track from NHC beyond 5 days...problem is florence exits and a ridge builds in behind, lets see how gfs and euro handle it in the next few days

You're right, but they have it moving in a general NW direction on their mapping, so if you extrapolate that out, you miss the islands. I think that's just the current line of thinking right now, obviously subject to change.

[gatorcane]

92l enters Hebert box at 192 hours on 12Z GFS. Seems the NHC development region should be adjusted south some. Right now it gives the impression it will be following in Florence's wake.