ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

RAW ADT for Florence has shot to T6.0, final T# of T5.6.

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2018 Time : 111535 UTC
Lat : 21:38:23 N Lon : 44:59:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 955.3mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.9 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +5.2C Cloud Region Temp : -64.2C

Scene Type : EYE

[1900hurricane]

Still a DT of 5.5 for light grey embedded shade with a black ring surrounding an off-white eye, but pretty close to 6.0 if the eye warms just a little. With SATCON at about 100 kt, I'd probably go 100-105 kt for 12Z.

[SconnieCane]

Where did you get that dvorak floater? Been missing all the enhanced IR products ever since the Atlantic was blacked out on ssd.noaa.gov. They really need to restore those products for GOES-EAST. I love the RBTOP loops from that site in particular.

[Bocadude85]

115
WTNT61 KNHC 051233
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
835 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FIRST OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

Recent satellite imagery indicates that Florence is still
strengthening and is now a major hurricane. Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued with the 1100 AM
AST (1500 UTC) advisory package.


SUMMARY OF 835 AM AST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 45.2W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Already 105 knots... could become a Cat 4 later today if the satellite presentation continues to improve.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
835 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FIRST OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

Recent satellite imagery indicates that Florence is still
strengthening and is now a major hurricane. Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued with the 1100 AM
AST (1500 UTC) advisory package.


SUMMARY OF 835 AM AST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 45.2W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

[HurricaneEnzo]

First major of the season Ladies and Gents! Go Flo Go! (as long as it's not impacting land)

[plasticup]

Well that was abrupt. 105 knots and strengthening. 115 knots (and Cat 4 status) doesn't seem like much of a stretch.

I guess the good news here is that a deeper storm will feel the trough more acutely and is more likely to recurve. Will the 12z models initiate with this new information, or do we need to wait for the 18z runs?

[JaxGator]

Florence looks like a classic hurricane this morning and is the first major of the season. The NHC mentioned in their last discussion that the hurricane's NW movement earlier this morning appeared to be a temporary trochoidal eyewall wobble and has now resumed its WNW heading. It's also has slowed down some more to 10mph (was 12mph yesterday).

[ava_ati]

Interesting
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1037320484482891777

[RL3AO]

And that's been a trend now for a few days. Most of the models have been too far south and west.

[txwatcher91]

According to shear charts, Florence in theory should start feeling the effects of shear today, especially mid-shear which seems to have more of an effect on stronger hurricanes.


Mid-shear

[MJGarrison]

Interesting
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1037320484482891777

It’s hard to tell from that chart whether the ensembles that start north actually stay north or curve west.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[hurricaneCW]

It may be a bit north of the ensembles but that could only result in a final solution further north.

Most critical time frame will be 55-60W, that's the only chance it'll have to escape. We'll have to see if the models stay consistent today or if they'll go back to the early escape route.

[WAcyclone]

This comparison between GOES-East and GOES-17 shows the same storm at the same time but from two different angles:

[BobHarlem]

After looking at the model runs this morning, this echos the only sure thing:

@cfhc
Florence will be one to watch for heated model discussions on social media if nothing else.

 https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/1037335143575371777

[Blown Away]

Eye flattening NW to SE, maybe getting ready to turn more WNW?

[JaxGator]

https://i.imgur.com/VL04ekr.gif
Eye flattening NW to SE, maybe getting ready to turn more WNW?

According to the NHC it is.

SUMMARY OF 835 AM AST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 45.2W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

[Blown Away]