ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

What makes NAM’s run so significant? Don’t think it did well with even Gordon.


quote="Steve"]

How fast is this supposed to move?? 0-10? 10-15

Whatever the distance from where it is now til about 10:00am Friday when NAM has "it" reaching shore. Think this will be Joyce by then, but we'll see.[/quote]

[SoupBone]

How fast is this supposed to move?? 0-10? 10-15

Whatever the distance from where it is now til about 10:00am Friday when NAM has "it" reaching shore. Think this will be Joyce by then, but we'll see.

Joyce needs to go find herself a home in Northern mexico. They absolutely need the rain there.

[wxGuy]

ICON showing a more north jog then west at the end of this run

[MississippiWx]

Certainly has the shape of a developing system that moves out of the NW Caribbean. As usual with these systems, it takes a little while to get the low levels right. As of now, still not much but maybe a hint of a broad low. Probably needs at least another 24-36 hours.

[NDG]

As if the ULL is trying to work itself down to the surface.

[Steve]

What makes NAM’s run so significant? Don’t think it did well with even Gordon.


quote="Steve"]

How fast is this supposed to move?? 0-10? 10-15

Whatever the distance from where it is now til about 10:00am Friday when NAM has "it" reaching shore. Think this will be Joyce by then, but we'll see.

[/quote]

It didn’t. But it shows a closed isobar (I believe underdone) system moving into the same general area that other models have shown. I think the the RGEM, if it’s right and if it went out further, would show about the same thing. The EC, which also shows it, only runs in 24 hour increments on TT though I guess I could get 6 hour progs at weather.us. Also it was the only 18z model out when I typed that. RGEM is out to 33H but is weaker than 12z and 06z and a little faster. Either way, landfall looks good in the 65-68 hour window.

[MississippiWx]

As if the ULL is trying to work itself down to the surface.

https://i.imgur.com/Zuew65I.gif

The latent heat produced by all of 95L's convection and the convection near Texas has all but killed the upper level low.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

1. An area of disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico continues to show
some signs of organization. Upper-levels winds are forecast to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance moves across
the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force
reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

.

[Clearcloudz]

Pressures are falling in the vicinity of the Yucatan peninsula, signaling the development of a broad surface trough of low pressure. With the shear forecast to greatly lessen over this system tomorrow in the south-central GOM, it’s code red for TC genesis in the short term #al95

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1039564341706678274

[Clearcloudz]

Shear is continuing to decrease ahead of 95L. Something is throwing the models off???

[EasyTiger]

Shear is continuing to decrease ahead of 95L. Something is throwing the models off???

Haven't looked at the shear map recently. What's interesting is the amount of shear ahead of Florence. Much greater than that ahead of 95L.

[Extratropical94]

Shear is continuing to decrease ahead of 95L. Something is throwing the models off???

Haven't looked at the shear map recently. What's interesting is the amount of shear ahead of Florence. Much greater than that ahead of 95L.

Most of the shear ahead of Florence is caused by the storm itself, especially by the upper level outflow, and will not impact Florence.

[abajan]

I imagine Cuba is gettin' a ton of rain, if the satellite pix are anything to go by.

[Rgv20]

Afternoon Discussion out of the NWS Brownsville

First...and for what it`s worth...global deterministic models
(GFS,ECWMF, UKMET, Canadian GEM) all carry a circulation, with
relatively modest pressure falls, to the coast somewhere along the
Coastal Bend. The elongated look of the disturbance as well as a
jump to the north-northwest to just north of the Yucatan peninsula
rather than along the Peninsula may have helped to guidance to
"lean" toward the mid Texas coast vs. the Lower Texas coast.
Second, there remains notable wind shear in the western Gulf,
courtesy of the overnight convection and an eastward nudge of the
`atmospheric river` that brought the flooding rains to parts of
the region and the end of the drought/dryness to others. That wind
shear, should it be present even if weakened, would argue for the
model consensus slow development of the system. A quick look at
intensity forecasts suggest the potential for a depression or
tropical storm at this point.

That said, if the shear does relax over the next 36 to 48 hours,
the system has a better shot to intensify, with plenty of deep
layer moisture in the envelope as well as peak warm temperatures
in the 29-30C range (September in the Gulf). If that were to
happen, the ability of the cyclone to track a bit farther south
might improve as the 500 mb ridge between Florence and the
southern Plains could become just dominant enough to bring more of
a westward, than northwestward, movement.

Because of the uncertainty, it`s just a bit too soon to bite off
on any one solution, and better just to lean in a little bit
toward the pragmatic answer which does favor a more northwest
movement and slower intensification at this point.

With this in mind, have followed the WPC/NHC idea for moderate
rain chances and more modest QPF for the region, with slightly
higher amounts on a southeast to northwest line along the coast
(South Padre to Falfurrias) and lesser values in the populated mid
Valley, which could use a break after the big rains since last
Saturday night.

[wxGuy]

[Portastorm]

System looks like garbage tonight. Who knows ... maybe the GFS was right.

[SoupBone]

System looks like garbage tonight. Who knows ... maybe the GFS was right.

Blind squirrel, nut?

[wkwally]

Will there be any second any time soon for 95L?

[chaser1]

I've seen road-kill that looked more impressive then this invest

[stormlover2013]

Boy boy this looks horrendous