ATL: ISAAC - Models

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La Breeze
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#321 Postby La Breeze » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:36 pm

mcheer23 wrote:CMC went back to the SETX/SWLA solution again.

Take it with a grain of salt.

Tiny grain of salt - what would even cause it to move northwesterly or even north? Isn't there supposed to be a high pressure between Florence and whatever gets into the GOM? Just asking.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#322 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:37 pm

La Breeze wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
artist wrote:https://s33.postimg.cc/vpurkrljz/storm_09.gif


Here is what some think of the cotc model-
COTC: A version of the US Navy's global model, which is kind of meh for hurricanes and is 12 hours old.



Don't like the CMC at all.

I don't either, Blinhart. I'm south of you in Vermilion Parish - but this is only one model. My gut is telling me (hopefully) that this is not our ball game.


I hope you guys have one of those new houses that were built up since Rita and Ike.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#323 Postby La Breeze » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:41 pm

Blinhart wrote:
La Breeze wrote:
Blinhart wrote:

Don't like the CMC at all.

I don't either, Blinhart. I'm south of you in Vermilion Parish - but this is only one model. My gut is telling me (hopefully) that this is not our ball game.


I hope you guys have one of those new houses that were built up since Rita and Ike.

No, I have a rather old house but built very sturdy - it's been around since the 1930s and have weathered many storms. Lost part of my roof in Lili and then again in Rita - never flooded.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#324 Postby Agua » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:24 pm

La Breeze wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
La Breeze wrote:I don't either, Blinhart. I'm south of you in Vermilion Parish - but this is only one model. My gut is telling me (hopefully) that this is not our ball game.


I hope you guys have one of those new houses that were built up since Rita and Ike.

No, I have a rather old house but built very sturdy - it's been around since the 1930s and have weathered many storms. Lost part of my roof in Lili and then again in Rita - never flooded.


Be aware that it is conventional wisdom that each storm weakens homes through the years.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#325 Postby La Breeze » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:29 pm

Models showing a high pressure over Florida possibly pushing this along to the west? Is this correct?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#326 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:31 pm

my weather man say shear may drop south haiti and some models show going toward Cuba that be watch
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#327 Postby La Breeze » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:34 pm

floridasun78 wrote:my weather man say shear may drop south haiti and some models show going toward Cuba that be watch

Would that possibly tear what's left of it apart at that point? Just wondering.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#328 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:34 pm

La Breeze wrote:Models showing a high pressure over Florida possibly pushing this along to the west? Is this correct?


There must be some kind of ridging earlier in the model run around 126 hours keeping this south of Cuba so odds are better it would be reaching the western periphery of the high at that time. Charley came right up over Cuba to recurve toward Florida with a high moving east.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#329 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:00 pm

Nimbus wrote:
La Breeze wrote:Models showing a high pressure over Florida possibly pushing this along to the west? Is this correct?


There must be some kind of ridging earlier in the model run around 126 hours keeping this south of Cuba so odds are better it would be reaching the western periphery of the high at that time. Charley came right up over Cuba to recurve toward Florida with a high moving east.
Seems more like florence creates a weakness, this is what happens when the field is full.of tropical systems
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#330 Postby SoupBone » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:13 pm

In previous model runs, there was high pressure parked right over Cuba. I don't see the feature anymore, but it was there for quite a few days of model runs.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#331 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:08 am

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#332 Postby artist » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:17 am

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#333 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:27 am

No one mentioned the 00z Euro pulled Issac up thru FL as a TS..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#334 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:42 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:No one mentioned the 00z Euro pulled Issac up thru FL as a TS..



Because more than likely it won’t happen and if it does just a rain maker, only way it gets going is it gets in the central gom..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#335 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:56 am

Euro ENsembles show a turn N towards the gulf and/or FL - Quite of few of those members show a hurricane. Definitely something to watch.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#336 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:05 am

it turns it because of florence crazy track....and lets be honest that has been up and down the past day or so.....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#337 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:08 am

Hmm... it looks like some models are starting to revive Issac as he reaches the central or Western Caribbean. Something to keep an eye on.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#338 Postby wxGuy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:18 am

Our local met just said Issac is not a threat to us any more, lol boy he has some balls
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#339 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:19 am

wxGuy wrote:Our local met just said Issac is not a threat to us any more, lol boy he has some balls


where are u located
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#340 Postby wxGuy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:21 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
wxGuy wrote:Our local met just said Issac is not a threat to us any more, lol boy he has some balls


where are u located

SETX
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