ATL: ISAAC - Models

[La Breeze]

CMC went back to the SETX/SWLA solution again.

Take it with a grain of salt.

Tiny grain of salt - what would even cause it to move northwesterly or even north? Isn't there supposed to be a high pressure between Florence and whatever gets into the GOM? Just asking.

[Blinhart]

https://s33.postimg.cc/vpurkrljz/storm_09.gif


Here is what some think of the cotc model-
COTC: A version of the US Navy's global model, which is kind of meh for hurricanes and is 12 hours old.

Don't like the CMC at all.

I don't either, Blinhart. I'm south of you in Vermilion Parish - but this is only one model. My gut is telling me (hopefully) that this is not our ball game.

I hope you guys have one of those new houses that were built up since Rita and Ike.

[La Breeze]

Don't like the CMC at all.

I don't either, Blinhart. I'm south of you in Vermilion Parish - but this is only one model. My gut is telling me (hopefully) that this is not our ball game.

I hope you guys have one of those new houses that were built up since Rita and Ike.

No, I have a rather old house but built very sturdy - it's been around since the 1930s and have weathered many storms. Lost part of my roof in Lili and then again in Rita - never flooded.

[Agua]

I don't either, Blinhart. I'm south of you in Vermilion Parish - but this is only one model. My gut is telling me (hopefully) that this is not our ball game.

I hope you guys have one of those new houses that were built up since Rita and Ike.

No, I have a rather old house but built very sturdy - it's been around since the 1930s and have weathered many storms. Lost part of my roof in Lili and then again in Rita - never flooded.

Be aware that it is conventional wisdom that each storm weakens homes through the years.

[La Breeze]

Models showing a high pressure over Florida possibly pushing this along to the west? Is this correct?

[floridasun78]

my weather man say shear may drop south haiti and some models show going toward Cuba that be watch

[La Breeze]

my weather man say shear may drop south haiti and some models show going toward Cuba that be watch

Would that possibly tear what's left of it apart at that point? Just wondering.

[Nimbus]

Models showing a high pressure over Florida possibly pushing this along to the west? Is this correct?

There must be some kind of ridging earlier in the model run around 126 hours keeping this south of Cuba so odds are better it would be reaching the western periphery of the high at that time. Charley came right up over Cuba to recurve toward Florida with a high moving east.

[jlauderdal]

Models showing a high pressure over Florida possibly pushing this along to the west? Is this correct?

There must be some kind of ridging earlier in the model run around 126 hours keeping this south of Cuba so odds are better it would be reaching the western periphery of the high at that time. Charley came right up over Cuba to recurve toward Florida with a high moving east.

Seems more like florence creates a weakness, this is what happens when the field is full.of tropical systems

[SoupBone]

In previous model runs, there was high pressure parked right over Cuba. I don't see the feature anymore, but it was there for quite a few days of model runs.

[Cpv17]

[artist]

[DESTRUCTION5]

No one mentioned the 00z Euro pulled Issac up thru FL as a TS..

[stormlover2013]

No one mentioned the 00z Euro pulled Issac up thru FL as a TS..

Because more than likely it won’t happen and if it does just a rain maker, only way it gets going is it gets in the central gom..

[chris_fit]

Euro ENsembles show a turn N towards the gulf and/or FL - Quite of few of those members show a hurricane. Definitely something to watch.

[stormlover2013]

it turns it because of florence crazy track....and lets be honest that has been up and down the past day or so.....

[Kazmit]

Hmm... it looks like some models are starting to revive Issac as he reaches the central or Western Caribbean. Something to keep an eye on.

[wxGuy]

Our local met just said Issac is not a threat to us any more, lol boy he has some balls

[stormlover2013]

Our local met just said Issac is not a threat to us any more, lol boy he has some balls

where are u located

[wxGuy]

Our local met just said Issac is not a threat to us any more, lol boy he has some balls

where are u located

SETX