ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
GFS says Issac isn't going away anytime soon as it hits the gulf and gains strength in the 12z.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
I’m really interested to see if the Euro jumps on board on its 12z run as the 00z EPS Ensembles were lighting up with tracks heading due north once in the western Caribbean. Maybe conditions won’t be so bad in Caribbean?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
FV3 - which has done much better with Florence than GFS, keeps it very weak through 90 hours
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY!
Here is the 12z GFS @240hrs. with a decent hurricane heading due north in the NE Gulf towards Apalachicola.
Here is the 12z GFS @240hrs. with a decent hurricane heading due north in the NE Gulf towards Apalachicola.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
12z GFS saying Issac turning into Hermine part 2.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018091212&fh=162
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018091212&fh=162
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
ronjon wrote:12z GFS saying Issac turning into Hermine part 2.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018091212&fh=162
That's a reasonable possibility that's been shown a few times with the GFS on recent flip flops.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
cmc been taking isaac for 3 days now in gom, now showing w gom, so really anything from s tx to florida is showing something in the late next week, but when models finally come down to it I believe they will sniff out a TX CAT 3-4 hurricane when it's all said and done. invest 95L shall be the warning shot from issac lets see where this ends up eh?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
wxGuy wrote:cmc been taking isaac for 3 days now in gom, now showing w gom, so really anything from s tx to florida is showing something in the late next week, but when models finally come down to it I believe they will sniff out a TX CAT 3-4 hurricane when it's all said and done. invest 95L shall be the warning shot from issac lets see where this ends up eh?
https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/cmc/2018/09/12/basis00/usus/pslv/18092200_1200.gif
Any data for your oddly specific 10+ day out prediction?
EDIT: I see last night's CMC. Don't bank on it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
So generally what I’m seeing is more models including gfs 12z and euro 0z earlier picking up on Isaac gaining strength in the Caribbean and potentially getting into the Gulf of Mexico. Euro 12z will be important to see if it also intensifies Isaac in the Caribbean and brings it into the GOM. Somewhere on the GOM- it’s too early to know where, could be impacted by Isaac in my unofficial opinion.
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- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Nothing on the FV3 12Z - Poooooof Have a feeling GFS run was a fluke, unless euro trends stronger in 30 min
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:So generally what I’m seeing is more models including gfs 12z and euro 0z earlier picking up on Isaac gaining strength in the Caribbean and potentially getting into the Gulf of Mexico. Euro 12z will be important to see if it also intensifies Isaac in the Caribbean and brings it into the GOM. Somewhere on the GOM- it’s too early to know where, could be impacted by Isaac in my unofficial opinion.
The last several days of model runs have shown mostly a dying in the western Caribbean solution, with the GFS flip flopping back and forth. Now with the last Euro showing something like the GFS, more eyes are opening up to that possibility. If this Euro shows it again, and even in a few more runs, people will really begin to take notice. On with the show!
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
12z HWRF has a powerful hurricane just south of haiti looks to be heading wnw through 90hrs..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
For the 12Z Euro. The run isn't complete, but this high is one of the features that has shown up and then poofed, but is one of the features that doesn't (at least temporarily) allow for the north movement. The end of this run will be interesting.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
12z Euro looks to kill it off in 5 days in the western Caribbean.
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