ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#361 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:22 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#362 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:29 am

welcome to the party GFS :lol:
1 likes   
#neversummer

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#363 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:34 am

Looks like a Gustav track into the Gulf on 12z GFS
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4391
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#364 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:40 am

GFS says Issac isn't going away anytime soon as it hits the gulf and gains strength in the 12z.
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#365 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:44 am

I’m really interested to see if the Euro jumps on board on its 12z run as the 00z EPS Ensembles were lighting up with tracks heading due north once in the western Caribbean. Maybe conditions won’t be so bad in Caribbean?
:double:
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3078
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#366 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:45 am

FV3 - which has done much better with Florence than GFS, keeps it very weak through 90 hours
0 likes   

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2312
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#367 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:45 am

Will give us something to watch will see tons of flip flopping
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#368 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:49 am

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY! :wink:

Here is the 12z GFS @240hrs. with a decent hurricane heading due north in the NE Gulf towards Apalachicola.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#369 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:00 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4671
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#370 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:03 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#371 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:04 pm




That's a reasonable possibility that's been shown a few times with the GFS on recent flip flops.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxGuy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 104
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:50 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#372 Postby wxGuy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:07 pm

cmc been taking isaac for 3 days now in gom, now showing w gom, so really anything from s tx to florida is showing something in the late next week, but when models finally come down to it I believe they will sniff out a TX CAT 3-4 hurricane when it's all said and done. invest 95L shall be the warning shot from issac lets see where this ends up eh?

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5459
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#373 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:17 pm

wxGuy wrote:cmc been taking isaac for 3 days now in gom, now showing w gom, so really anything from s tx to florida is showing something in the late next week, but when models finally come down to it I believe they will sniff out a TX CAT 3-4 hurricane when it's all said and done. invest 95L shall be the warning shot from issac lets see where this ends up eh?

https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/cmc/2018/09/12/basis00/usus/pslv/18092200_1200.gif


Any data for your oddly specific 10+ day out prediction?

EDIT: I see last night's CMC. Don't bank on it.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#374 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:29 pm

So generally what I’m seeing is more models including gfs 12z and euro 0z earlier picking up on Isaac gaining strength in the Caribbean and potentially getting into the Gulf of Mexico. Euro 12z will be important to see if it also intensifies Isaac in the Caribbean and brings it into the GOM. Somewhere on the GOM- it’s too early to know where, could be impacted by Isaac in my unofficial opinion.
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3078
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#375 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:34 pm

Nothing on the FV3 12Z - Poooooof Have a feeling GFS run was a fluke, unless euro trends stronger in 30 min
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#376 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:34 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:So generally what I’m seeing is more models including gfs 12z and euro 0z earlier picking up on Isaac gaining strength in the Caribbean and potentially getting into the Gulf of Mexico. Euro 12z will be important to see if it also intensifies Isaac in the Caribbean and brings it into the GOM. Somewhere on the GOM- it’s too early to know where, could be impacted by Isaac in my unofficial opinion.


The last several days of model runs have shown mostly a dying in the western Caribbean solution, with the GFS flip flopping back and forth. Now with the last Euro showing something like the GFS, more eyes are opening up to that possibility. If this Euro shows it again, and even in a few more runs, people will really begin to take notice. On with the show!
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#377 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:53 pm

12z HWRF has a powerful hurricane just south of haiti looks to be heading wnw through 90hrs..
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3078
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#378 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:08 pm

12Z GFS Ensembles not impressed....

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#379 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:14 pm

For the 12Z Euro. The run isn't complete, but this high is one of the features that has shown up and then poofed, but is one of the features that doesn't (at least temporarily) allow for the north movement. The end of this run will be interesting.


Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#380 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:27 pm

12z Euro looks to kill it off in 5 days in the western Caribbean.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests