ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Condor]

[stormhunter7]

From about 890mb to 950mb on dropsonde 5 on afrecon... NW eyewall..... Storms are going up where the clouder cloud tops started in recent sat updates... Lines up perfect with that strong convection firing. Florence making one last run I believe.

[stormhunter7]

A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 4:41:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 32.24N 74.06W
B. Center Fix Location: 225 statute miles (362 km) to the SSE (158°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,729m (8,953ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 957mb (28.26 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 55° at 14kts (From the NE at 16mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 68kts (78.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the S (173°) of center fix at 4:33:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 271° at 73kts (From the W at 84.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the S (172°) of center fix at 4:34:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 81kts (93.2mph)

[craptacular]

Latest recon mission is over. Next low-level mission scheduled for first center fix at 7:30 am EDT. Starting with that flight, recon is scheduled to ramp up even more and should have fixes no more than three hours apart.

[Ian2401]

Compare the satellite presentation to just a few hours ago and this thing looks MUCH better. Off the bed for now, but curious to see how it looks in the AM

[meriland29]

So the eye is still open? Winds look lower unless i read the data wrong above...then again, likely takes a while to respond to a pressure drop and cloud cooling.

[Aric Dunn]

This is about to do a cyclonic loop. a whole of vorticity on the west side. large eye might be trying to clear out if the convection keeps going.. looking much better.

[sbcc]

2 AM NHC track

[HDGator]

This is about to do a cyclonic loop. a whole of vorticity on the west side. large eye might be trying to clear out if the convection keeps going.. looking much better.

The eye is just about into radar range from Wilmington. We'll see soon where Flo really wants to go.

[Chris90]

So the eye is still open? Winds look lower unless i read the data wrong above...then again, likely takes a while to respond to a pressure drop and cloud cooling.

Yep, the eye is still open. Winds have been lower for a few hours now, but I think a large part of that is due to the eyewall cycles that have broadened the pressure gradient. Pressure may continue to drop somewhat without seeing a huge response in winds. The new eyewall looks very large, it's going to need to do quite a bit of contracting to tighten that pressure gradient up to get those winds increased significantly.

[Blinhart]

Flooding could be apocalyptic. If you stay, get to high ground.

Good advice.

Currently on the 6th floor of a reinforced-concrete parking garage.

Place was almost empty last night but is now jammed with cars.

Always best to make decisions early to avoid the crowds.

Hope there is a boat or two in there for you to hop in just in case.

[meriland29]

So out of curiosity, anyone else staying up extra late tonight watching this ?

[HDGator]

So out of curiosity, anyone else staying up extra late tonight watching this ?

Going to hit the bed soon. I'm thinking the real show will be tomorrow with the slow-down and turn. But Flo is keeping up the drama tonight.

[Rail Dawg]

So out of curiosity, anyone else staying up extra late tonight watching this ?

Yep. 2am here in Wilmington and Storm2k is the go-to place for updates.

Tropical Tidbits a very close second.

[HDGator]

So out of curiosity, anyone else staying up extra late tonight watching this ?

Yep. 2am here in Wilmington and Storm2k is the go-to place for updates.

Tropical Tidbits a very close second.

Hang in there Rail Dawg. You've got a show coming one way or the other. Stay safe. Goodnight!

[Aric Dunn]

So out of curiosity, anyone else staying up extra late tonight watching this ?

Yep. 2am here in Wilmington and Storm2k is the go-to place for updates.

Tropical Tidbits a very close second.

where are you at Rail Dawg? we are at the Ballast hotel currently wandering around.

[Blinhart]

I was going through the past several pages of comments since I decided to take a break for a couple hours and was looking at some of the graphics and it looked like she was going more West. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[meriland29]

Does anyone notice she went NW nad then as soon as her eye hit 74w she went straight up W?

[Aric Dunn]

Does anyone notice she went NW nad then as soon as her eye hit 74w she went straight up W?

It's a cyclonic loop happening. a lot of rotational energy is being transferred with the recent convection.

[meriland29]

Also, looks like something is happening to her left... dry air?