Cpv17 wrote:Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.
And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two.
Looks like a Cat.1 landfall.
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Cpv17 wrote:Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.
And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two.
Cpv17 wrote:Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.
And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two.
Kingarabian wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.
And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two.
Looks like a Cat.1 landfall.
La Breeze wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.
And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two.
Time frame on this, please... (I'm in Vermilion Parish - east of Cameron). When would this "possibly" occur?
La Breeze wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.
And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two.
Looks like a Cat.1 landfall.
Isn't there an expected front due about that time which might keep Isaac out of Louisiana?
GeneratorPower wrote:These systems which struggle for a long time typically never amount to much in terms of wind speed. Not expecting much in the Gulf either. This could change, so important to watch it.
stormchazer wrote:I’m not certain that there will even be an Isaac in the Western Caribbean. The system is a disjointed mess, has had little model consistency and has been hanging on the edge of dissipation for the last 48 hours.
blp wrote:I have been looking at the shear forecast past few days for the GFS and FV3 and I keep seeing a good environment once it gets to the W. Caribbean yet they keep opening it up. Maybe I am reading it wrong.
Model performance has been poor in my opinion on this. Most had Issac remaining strong up to the islands and it has been badly sheered and barely hanging on so those forecasts bombed. The fact that the models are flip flopping between development and dissipation tells me they don't have a good handle. It comes down to will it survive the next 48-72hrs and if so I think watch out in the W. Caribbean.
https://image.ibb.co/hzR0n9/Untitled.png
tomatkins wrote:GeneratorPower wrote:These systems which struggle for a long time typically never amount to much in terms of wind speed. Not expecting much in the Gulf either. This could change, so important to watch it.
True - remember that nothing tropical storm Harvey last year that couldn't even hold together a surface circulation in the Western Caribbean and really didnt do anything even with favorable conditions in the gulf.
Steve wrote:stormchazer wrote:I’m not certain that there will even be an Isaac in the Western Caribbean. The system is a disjointed mess, has had little model consistency and has been hanging on the edge of dissipation for the last 48 hours.
As has been noted for several days, it's likely to come down to the MJO as to whether or not we still have Isaac or the Renanimated Isaac toward the end of next week. As noted several times on this thread, the MJO has been very favorable the last couple of weeks, but it has been forecasted to return to not so favorable conditions - briefly - before returning to favorable conditions in the Atlantic. It doesn't show up yet on the NCEP's JMA graph, but Weatherbell had the Western Hemisphere map on this morning on the daily video summary. A negative appears around Central America before switching back to positive. Bastardi said he didn't see the Atlantic returning to favorable this month and now there's liable to be another pulse. That times pretty close with my thoughts beginning this past weekend with the idea that if Isaac was going to survive or come back, the timing would likely need to be in sync with the return to the upward motion pattern.
Nice to see a professional met confirming that I've actually f'n learned something about the MJO after all these years. FWIW, I have no opinion one way or the other as to whether or not Isaac is going to still be there or regenerate.
NCEP MJO Forecast
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ncpe.shtml
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