ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#681 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:48 am

The NHC, EURO AND GFS see it dying out. We'll see what happens
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#682 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:58 am

Saying a storm will die out is a bit misleading because that does not mean it can't regenerate later.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#683 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:01 am


Hope he will stay weak and do not move close to any land especially in the Greater Antilles. :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#684 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:03 am

YES! We have been fully spared from poor TS Isaac! Thanks to you Isaac polite little boy. I hope that Isaac stay at this status along it treks, but only Mother Nature knows why. Even rainfall values are extremely week only 45 millimeters in a area close in hig elevation close to our volcano la Soufriere , elsewhere 5 millimiters in some others areas. So good excellent news, no damages, schools are open, all is at green code! :D :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#685 Postby tailgater » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:14 am

convection continues to fire on or near the Coc if one still exist. Definetly needs to be watched. I expect him to lose its clothes again later today but regain convection tonight during d-max.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#686 Postby artist » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:17 am

msbee wrote:Tropical storm watch for St Maarten has been discontinued

Awesome news Barb!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#687 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:50 am

caneman wrote:The NHC, EURO AND GFS see it dying out. We'll see what happens


What the NHC, my mets, etc. are waiting on is this area of shear that's been increasing in that small pocket. My mets are forecasting potential dissipation just SE of Jamaica on Sunday, so that day is critical for his survival or "poof". If you look at the GFS over the last 2-3 runs, that poof moment comes right SE of Jamaica.

Image
Last edited by SoupBone on Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#688 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:54 am

The dry air he was dealing with is all but gone.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#689 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:03 am

Yeah, convection indeed has flared back up with Isaac the past 6-12 hours. Conditions just may be improving indeed for Isaac to get its act together ad he moves further into the NW Caribbean the next few days.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#690 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:11 am

Definitely bears watching...as in the past, we've had some bad experiences with weak storms that regenerated/strengthened in the Gulf. I don't think I need to name names, unfortunately.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#691 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:47 am

"Vertical shear has decreased near Isaac, with some outflow in the
western semicircle noted and consolidation of the convection.
Still, this area of the eastern Caribbean isn't known as the
graveyard for nothing
, and the system might just be too shallow and
disorganized to take advantage of the changing environment."

:lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#692 Postby Frank P » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:51 am

Well it indeed might go poof, but for the time being it’s certainly got my attention until and if it does so!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#693 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:17 am

StruThiO wrote:"Vertical shear has decreased near Isaac, with some outflow in the
western semicircle noted and consolidation of the convection.
Still, this area of the eastern Caribbean isn't known as the
graveyard for nothing
, and the system might just be too shallow and
disorganized to take advantage of the changing environment."

:lol:


It's why while nothing is written in stone, and doesn't happen until it happens, I always defer to the experts. Like I said, our mets said Sunday will be key in Isaac's life. He'll either rise to the occasion, or become another casualty of the Caribbean Graveyard. Tick tock :lol:

And he's still blowing up this morning and even fanning out his coverage. Trying to cover up in his blanket.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#694 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:29 am

At this point with vigorous and maybe even lightly banded convection only further increasing, and shear relaxing enough to allow it, I have to wonder if the center would try reforming where convection is most intense since the old long lived one was looking rather bleh before it got covered up. Fascinating storm to watch.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#695 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:35 am

Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

...BANDS OF RAIN FROM ISAAC CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 67.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#696 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:37 am

"Deep convection has been increasing near the center of Isaac, but
visible imagery indicates that the circulation has become
more elongated from northeast to southwest
. It is possible that
Isaac is in the process of losing a well-defined center
, but we will
know more about the wind structure in a few hours since the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area. The initial wind
speed is held at 30 kt.

Vertical shear has decreased near Isaac, with some outflow in the
western semicircle noted and consolidation of the convection.
Still, this area of the eastern Caribbean isn't known as the
graveyard for nothing, and the system might just be too shallow and
disorganized to take advantage of the changing environment. Almost
all of the dynamical models, save the UKMET, show the cyclone moving
westward to west-northwestward at a slower forward speed during the
next few days and degenerating into an open wave in the central
Caribbean Sea. This solution is also supported by fewer members of
the GFS and ECMWF ensemble now maintaining a coherent system in the
long range. Little change is made to the previous track and
intensity forecasts, and we will see what the aircraft finds this
afternoon and if the 1200 UTC model cycle maintains the dissipation
trend.
"

We'll have some good info from the recon flights today. Awesome!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#697 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:43 am

Would be a very strange fate, going from a convectionless tiny vigorous low level swirl for days to a large and very convectively organized open tropical wave, but weirder things happen lol
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#698 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:44 am

The GFS continues to depict the W Caribbean with generally low shear by Sunday when Isaac or his ghost reaches the area. The 200mb chart shows Isaac will be on the south side of Florences sprawling upper level anticyclone however. So there may be some sinking air for him to deal with that may put a damper on convection. If he can maintain some convection he might be able to carve out his own southern pocket of anticyclonic flow/outflow, perhaps aided by a retrograding upper level low over the GOM.

Also, the "graveyard" idea is that low level flow usually races through the area between Hispaniola and South America, creating relative shear... the W Caribbean has never been known to be part of this "graveyard". Many storms have thrived in that very same area, so take it with a grain of salt. It's all about the setup any given time. Regardless, he will already have traveled past that area by Sunday anyway.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#699 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:15 am

FWIW, grain of salt, etc. The GFS kills him again for the 3rd run at about hour 72ish. His remnants (open wave) continue on to the Yucatan.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#700 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:24 am

Isaac is really cranking up- lots of convection, not sure if there is an LLC but there is some rotation with areas of strong storms southwest and northeast of center. (Credit goes to Grothar of Weather Underground for the images.)
https://photos.app.goo.gl/7n9iWkKAxKnGgkrx5
https://photos.app.goo.gl/oFwg4RivTedUZUAw6
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