How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
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- CyclonicFury
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How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
I'm going with three. Maybe one more in September and two in October.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
I'm going to go with 2 more September and 2 in October. 4/3/2.
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- Kazmit
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
Hmm... 3 or 4. 3 in October and November and maybe another one in September.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
5 more. 2 of them becoming hurricanes (1 major).
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- galaxy401
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
Quite a contrast between the two pro mets. Who will win this battle?
I'm going with 4 named storms. One later this month, 2 in October, and a November subtropical storm.
I'm going with 4 named storms. One later this month, 2 in October, and a November subtropical storm.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
5.
September: None
October: 4; 2 TS, 2 H
November: 1; 1 MH
September: None
October: 4; 2 TS, 2 H
November: 1; 1 MH
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
galaxy401 wrote:Quite a contrast between the two pro mets. Who will win this battle?
I'm going with 4 named storms. One later this month, 2 in October, and a November subtropical storm.
I wonder if wxman is joking lol. 0-1 NS for the rest of the season seems unrealistically low, it's only mid-September and the season still has 2 1/2 months left.
My prediction for the rest of the season was 3 NS.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- Kazmit
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
CyclonicFury wrote:galaxy401 wrote:Quite a contrast between the two pro mets. Who will win this battle?
I'm going with 4 named storms. One later this month, 2 in October, and a November subtropical storm.
I wonder if wxman is joking lol. 0-1 NS for the rest of the season seems unrealistically low, it's only mid-September and the season still has 2 1/2 months left.
My prediction for the rest of the season was 3 NS.
I'm not sure he is. The Atlantic looks like it will be pretty inactive for the next couple of weeks, so maybe he thinks that will continue through the rest of the season.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
Upward motion is coming back to the EPAC and Atlantic. We were wondering last week if Isaac might make a comeback after we swing back to phase 8. But it looks like the timing won’t be right. But after that - particularly the end of week 2 and then week 3, looks like NCEP is swinging way way into 1. If they’re right, a strong 2-3 storm Atlantic pulse should happen. I thought maybe we’d see another 1-2 and then maybe a stray late October or November storm. As it is, we might see 4 more systems with I think at least 2 getting to Hurricane strength .
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml
Last edited by Steve on Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
Kazmit wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:galaxy401 wrote:Quite a contrast between the two pro mets. Who will win this battle?
I'm going with 4 named storms. One later this month, 2 in October, and a November subtropical storm.
I wonder if wxman is joking lol. 0-1 NS for the rest of the season seems unrealistically low, it's only mid-September and the season still has 2 1/2 months left.
My prediction for the rest of the season was 3 NS.
I'm not sure he is. The Atlantic looks like it will be pretty inactive for the next couple of weeks, so maybe he thinks that will continue through the rest of the season.
To go the entire rest of the season without a named storm is extremely unlikely. I'm not expecting the current level of activity to continue, but I cannot think of a single Atlantic hurricane season in the satellite era that ended before the last week of September. The Atlantic averages about 4-5 storms from this point forward, and while I'm not expecting a very active late season, I don't see why the Atlantic won't produce a few storms, even though it may be weak subtropics storms that don't get much attention.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
I'd guess 4 more, one of which to be a major. Breakdown might go something like this-
September: one more tropical or sub-tropical Central Atlantic system that quickly moves poleward posing no threat to the Caribbean or U.S..
October: Three systems.... one Gulf T.S. striking Texas or Louisiana, one Caribbean T.S. striking Cuba, Florida Keys, then dissipating in the Gulf from upper shear, one hurricane near Turks & Caicos that intensifies as it moves toward S. Florida as a Cat. 3 recurving east of Bimini and impacts N.C. as a Cat 2.
November: Huge monsoonal system in SW Caribbean reaching min. hurricane intensity and flooding rains while driftong erratically fpr days before weakening to a T.S. and finally making landfall over E. Cuba or Hispaniola.
September: one more tropical or sub-tropical Central Atlantic system that quickly moves poleward posing no threat to the Caribbean or U.S..
October: Three systems.... one Gulf T.S. striking Texas or Louisiana, one Caribbean T.S. striking Cuba, Florida Keys, then dissipating in the Gulf from upper shear, one hurricane near Turks & Caicos that intensifies as it moves toward S. Florida as a Cat. 3 recurving east of Bimini and impacts N.C. as a Cat 2.
November: Huge monsoonal system in SW Caribbean reaching min. hurricane intensity and flooding rains while driftong erratically fpr days before weakening to a T.S. and finally making landfall over E. Cuba or Hispaniola.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
I’d go with 2-4 more. With 2 at most becoming hurricanes, and maybe 1 more major.
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- wxman57
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
No, I wasn't joking. 0-1. Any more than that and the NHC will be naming subtropical storms east of Newfoundland.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
I'm thinking two. Maybe one of them becomes a hurricane.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
I’m seeing 5/2/1 the rest of the year and it will go as follows
September 26th. TS Kirk forms in the subtropical Atlantic and is no threat to land 60mph peak
October 6th TS Leslie forms in the BOC and landfalls at peak 45mph
October 10th TS Michael forms in the subtropics and is no threat to land peak 50mph
October 15th Major Hurricane Nadine forms in the western Caribbean and peaks in the Yucatan channel as a 175mph and moves NE and makes landfall between Ft Myers and Sarasota as a 125mph hurricane and moves out into the Atlantic and landfalls in Bermuda as a 80mph hurricane
November 3rd Hurricane Oscar forms in the western Caribbean and peaks at landfall as a 80mph hurricane in eastern Cuba
September 26th. TS Kirk forms in the subtropical Atlantic and is no threat to land 60mph peak
October 6th TS Leslie forms in the BOC and landfalls at peak 45mph
October 10th TS Michael forms in the subtropics and is no threat to land peak 50mph
October 15th Major Hurricane Nadine forms in the western Caribbean and peaks in the Yucatan channel as a 175mph and moves NE and makes landfall between Ft Myers and Sarasota as a 125mph hurricane and moves out into the Atlantic and landfalls in Bermuda as a 80mph hurricane
November 3rd Hurricane Oscar forms in the western Caribbean and peaks at landfall as a 80mph hurricane in eastern Cuba
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
I think we manage:
2-4 more named storms
1-2 hurricanes
0 majors
I’d keep my eyes on the SW and NE Caribbean areas as well as the Gulf. All just a gut feeling.
2-4 more named storms
1-2 hurricanes
0 majors
I’d keep my eyes on the SW and NE Caribbean areas as well as the Gulf. All just a gut feeling.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
yeah count me in the group that does not believe hurricane season is over although we are about to get a much deserved break. I think we get a couple more junk STS name waster systems in the mid latitudes and 1 or 2 legit tropical systems in the tropics (late season in the usual areas). so 3 or 4 total..
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
Given this year seems similar to 2014 (in that it's warm-neutral largely MJO-driven) and even that year had 3/2/1 following nearly a month of inactivity following Edouard, I'll go a bit higher than that and say we see 3 in October, one in November, and maybe one more in September, with two in October being hurricanes, and maybe one in November. One more major is also possible as with 2014.
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- StruThiO
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?
I'll highball and go 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major
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