ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4941 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:10 pm

Raebie wrote:Heavy bands starting to move into Charlotte. Gonna be a long night.


From a loss and damages and resource standpoint,it’s very fortunate that this thing did not and should not park any of the 2-4 foot totals over a major metropolitan like Charlotte or Raleigh. Although Charlotte will be a big enough mess from the 10-15 they are expecting. Drainage and runoff in cities is just bad in general and certainly contributed greatly to misery in Houston in Harvey. Which is not to say it doesn’t suck for the smaller cities and towns that have been so hard hit. The crappy part is that this is such a widespread flood event in general and soon with encompass around a 1/3 of the state.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4942 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:15 pm

Dire flood warning from NWS Raleigh.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning

Code: Select all

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
1128 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North
Carolina...

  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

  Cape Fear River At Fayetteville affecting Cumberland County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC051-160327-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0010.180916T0311Z-000000T0000Z/
/FAYN7.3.ER.180916T0311Z.180918T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1128 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Fayetteville.
* from this evening until further notice, or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At 11:00 AM Saturday the stage was 20.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tonight and
  continue to rise to near 62.4 feet by Tuesday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 64.0 feet, Several thousand acres of land and hundreds
  of structures on both sides of the river will be flooded. Water
  reaches the under-clearance of the downstream railroad trestle.
  Downstream about 2 miles, the river will spread to a width of
  approximately 1 mile.
* Impact...At 60.0 feet, Water begins to bypass the left end of the
  NC24 bridge for several hundred yards. Two miles downstream, the
  left bank widens to 1000 feet and to a depth of several feet.
* Impact...At 58.0 feet, Major flood stage. The right bank widens to
  several hundred feet and there is serious flooding of downstream
  structures.
* Impact...At 50.0 feet, There is significant overflow on the left
  bank about 2 miles downstream of the NC24 bridge.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The upper parking areas
  at Riverside Bait and Tackle are flooded. There is significant
  lowland flooding downstream.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, Flood stage. The boat ramp and lower parking
  lot at Riverside Bait and Tackle off Person Street are flooded. The
  stage and lower seating area at the Cape Fear amphitheater are
  flooded.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, Action Stage. Banks begin to overflow.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4943 Postby southerngale » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:34 pm

Florence death toll reaches 11 in the Carolinas. :(


Authorities confirmed on Saturday that the death toll attributed to Florence stands at 11, including 10 in North Carolina and one in South Carolina.

Here is the list as compiled by the Associated Press.

A husband and wife died in a Fayetteville, North Carolina house fire on Friday, the state's Office of the Chief Medical Examiner says.

A mother and her 8-month-old child were killed when a massive tree crushed their brick house Friday, according to a tweet from Wilmington, North Carolina police.

An 81-year-old man died while trying to evacuate Wayne County, North Carolina, on Friday, the state's Office of the Chief Medical Examiner says.

A 78-year-old man was electrocuted in the rain while trying to connect extension cords for a generator, Lenoir County, North Carolina spokesman Bryan Hanks says.

A 77-year old man died after he went outside to check on his hunting dogs and was blown down, Hanks says.

Three people died in Duplin County, North Carolina because of "flash flooding and swift water on roadways," the Duplin County Sheriff's Office said on its Facebook page.

A 61-year-old woman was killed late Friday when the vehicle she was driving struck a tree near the town of Union, South Carolina, Capt. Kelley Hughes of the South Carolina Highway Patrol said.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4944 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:36 pm

Over the last several days, many of the news networks have been saying some areas could expect up to 4 feet of rain. That's 48 inches. Yet, I can't recall any of the NHC advisories mentioning 48 inches. The most I've seen stated was 40 inches. Have any of you seen 48 inches (or 4 feet) of rain mentioned in any of the advisories?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4945 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:17 pm

models have shown that propensity for totals that high , although in slightly different swaths based on where they locate the feeders. It’s all about location location location. At one point there were places that had received 30 already while neighboring counties had less than 12.

In my experience NWS is deliberately general and often low balls extreme rain events. NWS generally doesn’t issue high end rain fall numbers for any area as they know it’s can be extremely local. So advisories will tend to mention ranges that are are a widespread good bet. They also tend to go period by period, Rather than storm totals which is a little different than how blizzard advisories are often worded.

Incedantally, even with Harvey, you didn’t see wording of 60+ inches in any advisories I don’t believe. Some very localized spots got very unlucky, and that’s not something you can easily word in a forecast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4946 Postby NC George » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:47 pm

MacTavish wrote:



This deserves its own active storm thread. Title is "ATL -Tropical Sh*t Storm" :lol: :lol: :lol: :roll:
Hope they fire him and fix their entire narrative. Or maybe cut their losses and go off air. We have local news, nws, nhc, and noaa. No need for a weather channel


Yes, after seeing that I think they lost all respect from me.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4947 Postby Orlando » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:13 pm

Highest rainfall total so far is in Swansboro, NC at 30" with much more to come.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4948 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:19 pm

Florence has become the furthest east NW moving tropical cyclone on record back to 1851 to later hit the CONUS. The prior record holder was storm #5 of 1906, which moved NW starting at 48W. Florence did so between 46.6W and 47.9W.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4949 Postby HDGator » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:20 pm

abajan wrote:Over the last several days, many of the news networks have been saying some areas could expect up to 4 feet of rain. That's 48 inches. Yet, I can't recall any of the NHC advisories mentioning 48 inches. The most I've seen stated was 40 inches. Have any of you seen 48 inches (or 4 feet) of rain mentioned in any of the advisories?

PTPatrick wrote:models have shown that propensity for totals that high , although in slightly different swaths based on where they locate the feeders. It’s all about location location location. At one point there were places that had received 30 already while neighboring counties had less than 12.

In my experience NWS is deliberately general and often low balls extreme rain events. NWS generally doesn’t issue high end rain fall numbers for any area as they know it’s can be extremely local. So advisories will tend to mention ranges that are are a widespread good bet. They also tend to go period by period, Rather than storm totals which is a little different than how blizzard advisories are often worded.

Incedantally, even with Harvey, you didn’t see wording of 60+ inches in any advisories I don’t believe. Some very localized spots got very unlucky, and that’s not something you can easily word in a forecast.

You both make excellent points!
I believe Flo will give us a new perspective on the the third punch of tropical systems - rainfall.

In the approach to landfall, all of the emphasis in the media is on peak wind speed. What Category storm are we facing? As soon as peak wind speed drops, we hear the all clear signal being sounded on several fronts. We have done a better job in recent years of raising awareness of storm surge danger largely through the efforts of public safety officials that keep pounding the point home about the danger of surge at landfall. And we know it's the biggest danger to life and property from a landfalling hurricane. And I will credit TWC for their efforts to raise awareness of surge danger through their reporting despite their documented 'departures from reality' with wind conditions...

What we don't hear enough about in the approach to landfall is the potential dangers from the rainfall event. I will say that I heard multiple reports of 30" plus rainfall totals over parts of NC from the storm in the reporting up to the landfall. As a civil engineer that actually designs stormwater systems, this sends chills down my spine. I don't think most attach much significance to this figure other than "wow, that's a lot of rain". I don't think that many people inland paid any attention to the danger until the rain started and didn't stop. We will be seeing a slow progression of a monumental flood event from this rainfall over the next several days. The focus over the past week has been on the one-two punch of wind and storm surge. Not enough have paid attention to the third punch which is a significant historical flood event from the rainfall being dropped by Flo now and over the next few days.

I hope and pray for the safety of our North Carolina friends but fear we will see continued damage, injury and loss of life over the next few days as this event unfolds. Florence, despite her modest peak winds at landfall, will go down as a well-remembered storm in North/South Carolina.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4950 Postby WeatherLovingDoc » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:22 pm

We here at storm2k.org haven't forgotten you, those affected by Florence. We might not post but you are constantly in our minds, hoping now for your health and wishing soon for recovery and better days. Peace to you all: you have experienced great loss and burden. We stand with you.

-WeatherLoving Doc
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4951 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:31 pm

Energizer Bunny bands still in se nc. Many were warned it could be 72 hours nonstop on the rain and bands. At one point either GFS or EC had like 105 hours so hopefully it doesn't go that long. Maybe ad the system pulls out, feeders will be more east and north.

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php
Last edited by Steve on Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4952 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:32 pm

I do have some good news to report as my family in Fayetteville somehow got their power back on late this evening. However, they will be evacuating their home, which is only about less than 2 miles from the Cape Fear River tomorrow. They are OK thankfully. But please keep them and everyone in that area in your prayers as heavy. rain and devastating flooding batter that region the next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4953 Postby weunice » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:41 pm

HDGator wrote:I believe Flo will give us a new perspective on the the third punch of tropical systems - rainfall.

This was one of the big punches with Harvey (which had over 50" in some places) and the pre-tropical unnamed storm in Aug 2016 that dumped 20-30+ inches of rain in South Louisiana over a tremendous area. The impact was very widespread in both instances. Even though there was virtually no wind in 2016, we had a $10 billion weather event from rain alone. The totals in Florence are similar or higher. I can easily see well over $10 billion in damages from river flooding in this event.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4954 Postby jasons2k » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:50 pm

NC George wrote:


There are two sides to every story. This is a comment from one of the producers:

From Beth Weiss:

I’m sure most of you have seen this shared on your social media and I feel compelled to speak up about it.

The meteorologist in the video is Mike Seidel. He is 61 years old and has been doing this for a very long time. He understands weather better than almost anyone out there. We were his crew for landfall in Port Lavaca, TX for hurricane Harvey.

We are his crew for hurricane Florence in Wilmington, NC. When we are crewing for him, we are literally putting our lives in his meteorological hands. He checks radar, and he is careful not to put his crew or himself in danger. I like this man, he’s a joy to work with. He’s funny and witty. And SMART.

To you, a viewer, it appears like he was being over dramatic. I was there and he was not. What you don’t see is the side of a building to his left. When wind blows around a building, it acts like a funnel. People want to see the weather, that’s why they watch it. So to demonstrate the weather, he stands where it’s most visible. He also knows to brace himself in case of fierce gusts.

I can personally attest to the fact that hurricane force winds can take you right off your feet, I got blown completely over during Harvey. Had I lowered my center of gravity, I may not have been blown over.

Also, as I type this, five human beings have perished from this storm. There could be more lives lost.

I don’t understand how a country that loves “reality tv” and tabloids and actually pays attention to what the Kardashians do can have the balls to question a professional doing his best to not get blown away.

We have been working long hours for six or seven days now. I’m so tired I can’t even keep track. We were live until 1am this morning, then had to pack and load gear and got back to our hotel around 3am. We had already lost power, so we slept with no air conditioning. The storm was very loud, the wind howled all night.

Then we were back up at 8am to start prepping for today’s live show. We were live starting about 11:30. It was pouring rain and the wind was strong with some really ferocious gusts.
We’re all a little tired, and not as strong as we usually are.

What Mike Seidel did was cautious and smart and I still have just as much respect for him today as I did yesterday. He’s earned it in my book.

I’m sure I won’t change any minds but I do think a lot of people are being completely ridiculous.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4955 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:21 pm

Looking at the radar its sad...all this rain still coming with areas already seeing lots of flooding
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4956 Postby Orlando » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:34 pm

According to Wilmington, NC live news, there are two tornado warnings right now.

http://ftpcontent4.worldnow.com/raycom/ ... livestream
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4957 Postby MrStormX » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:40 pm

Hate to say this folks, but with the Euro and CMC developing another weak tropical system off the Carolinas next week, this situation might not abate very quickly. My own personal opinion.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4958 Postby MrStormX » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:56 pm

Abnormally strong couplet near Old Town. Very strong hook echo for a TC, never seen one like this.

This does not look like a weak tornado.

Debris ball confirmed by local mets.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4959 Postby MrStormX » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:59 pm

Tornado now confirmed, heading towards Leland.

Very strong signature. I have not seen a signature like this with a TC spawned tornado ever.


NCC019-129-160545-
/O.CON.KILM.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180916T0545Z/
New Hanover NC-Brunswick NC-
1257 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM EDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL NEW HANOVER AND NORTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...

At 1256 AM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Silver Lake, or
near Leland, moving northwest at 30 mph.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4960 Postby aperson » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:05 am

it looks like there's a line echo wave pattern embedded in that intense rainband. the amount of the couplets it's spawning is immense and that tornado just put up an impressive debris signature

 https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1041189572141613056


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