ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Blinhart
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#801 Postby Blinhart » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:22 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Still think Isaac could redevelop over the western Caribbean. However, even if it doesn’t develop, the wave which produced Isaac will cross into the Gulf of Mexico and could be a heavy rain threat to Texas or Louisiana next week in my opinion. People in Texas/Louisiana should watch this as a flooding threat, especially since they have had so much heavy rain in parts of Texas/Louisiana the last few weeks.



Don't worry I'm keeping an eye on the remnants.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#802 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:39 pm

So, what are the chances of this becoming Harvey Part Deux?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#803 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:46 pm

Too much shear, dry air and spread out convection. Still need to monitor it but not much support for now.

Looks like a break from activity until early Oct. from everything I'm seeing.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#804 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:07 pm

Florence energy loops back, might get something going down the road
Dean4Storms wrote:Too much shear, dry air and spread out convection. Still need to monitor it but not much support for now.

Looks like a break from activity until early Oct. from everything I'm seeing.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#805 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:07 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Too much shear, dry air and spread out convection. Still need to monitor it but not much support for now.

Looks like a break from activity until early Oct. from everything I'm seeing.


Agree, looks like its almost time to shift focus to the SW part of the basin.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#806 Postby setxweathergal64 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:04 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Too much shear, dry air and spread out convection. Still need to monitor it but not much support for now.

Looks like a break from activity until early Oct. from everything I'm seeing.


Agree, looks like its almost time to shift focus to the SW part of the basin.

Good then maybe we can put our closed sign out for the Gulf!! :wink:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#807 Postby Abdullah » Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:13 pm

Currently it looks to be in a rather conducive area for development to me(extremely amateur perspective.) The dry air and shear are down. It seems to have its 850 mb, 700 mb, and 500 mb vorticities ready to go! What's stopping it from getting its Low-Level-Center Back Together and Reorganizing?

Dry Air
Image
Vorticity Levels
Image
Image
Image
Shear
Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#808 Postby aperson » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:00 pm

imo I think some of it is due to MJO conditions no longer being favorable with sinking velocity anomalies showing up (and propagating across the gulf over this week).

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#809 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:11 pm

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Isaac
is located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
This low is accompanied by cloudiness and a few thunderstorms,
and although the system shows some slight organization, it is
heading westward toward a hostile environment for re-development.
Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#810 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:24 pm

I guess that sort of explains the sudden collapse in convection last night.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#811 Postby MississippiWx » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:11 pm

There is still pretty vigorous low level spin with Isaac.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#812 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:57 pm

Structure in the low level looking better tonight than last night. 16.7N 72.0W. Geaux Tigers
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#813 Postby GCANE » Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:36 am

I am not seeing the "hostile environment" this will be moving into.
PV, Shear, UL Moisture, Hot Water is all conducive.
LL Moisture appears to be the only inhibiting factor.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#814 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:27 am

Best Track continues to follow it.

AL, 09, 2018091612, , BEST, 0, 166N, 742W, 25, 1007, LO
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#815 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:49 am

cycloneye wrote:Best Track continues to follow it.

AL, 09, 2018091612, , BEST, 0, 166N, 742W, 25, 1007, LO

Noted as a low, not a disturbance; any significance there?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#816 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:53 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Best Track continues to follow it.

AL, 09, 2018091612, , BEST, 0, 166N, 742W, 25, 1007, LO

Noted as a low, not a disturbance; any significance there?


Nothing important about that as there is still a weak low there.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#817 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:56 am

A low is typically used as the designation if a closed circulation is observed but fails to meet the requirements of a tropical cyclone in some other aspect, such as convective coverage or thermal structure (although there is another designation for extratropical systems too). I can see why the NHC went with the low designation.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#818 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:56 am

It still has a good spin to it this morning, the h200 velocity map image that aperson posted makes sense why the global models don't do anything with its remnants, it has fairly good UL winds and low level easterly jet is not present in this area but is in an area of subsidence, I am sure Florence still has a lot to do with it.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#819 Postby GCANE » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:33 am

Nice convection firing close to the spin south of the southern tip of Haiti.

I like to think of the Carib as 4 zones, from east to west
1) Graveyard Zone
2) It's-Dead-Jim Zone
3) Resurection & Repentance Zone
4) Holy Crap / RI Zone

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#820 Postby Frank P » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:45 am

Convection continues to slowly build again with Isaac late this morning, nice looking low swirling in the Cab. It’s still not really dead yet! IMO 8-)
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