ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- meriland29
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
The difference in surface pressure between the center and 50 miles out on the periphery is just a couple millibars. On the other hand at extreme magnification there do appear to still be some west winds wrapping the extreme southern part of the circulation.
These shallow profile surface pressure remnants can spin for days without generating much convection over the center of circulation again. Have to wait for either recon or persistent CDO to know if there is a new dip in surface pressure near the center.
These shallow profile surface pressure remnants can spin for days without generating much convection over the center of circulation again. Have to wait for either recon or persistent CDO to know if there is a new dip in surface pressure near the center.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
In the Caribbean?xironman wrote:Three tornado warnings in the area.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
2 PM TWO:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac,
is located about 125 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
This system continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development is possible during the next day or so as it moves
west-northwestward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive and re-development appears unlikely. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over
portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
is located about 125 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
This system continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development is possible during the next day or so as it moves
west-northwestward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive and re-development appears unlikely. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over
portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:In the Caribbean?xironman wrote:Three tornado warnings in the area.
Oops meant to post to Florence.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:2 PM TWO:A broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac,
is located about 125 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
This system continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development is possible during the next day or so as it moves
west-northwestward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive and re-development appears unlikely. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over
portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
18z Best Track still with it.
AL, 09, 2018091618, , BEST, 0, 174N, 752W, 25, 1007, LO
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Vertically it is looking better than the past few days. The 500mb vorticity has finally moved closer to the 850 and 700 vorticity and is not stretched close to SA like it was yesterday.
However, the models are unanimous that this new consolidation effort will soon be broken up. I been trying to find the reason for several days. Maybe its the land interaction with Jamaica that finally opens this up and disrupts the low level circulation. It looks like it will run right over Jamaica at this point. Interesting to see if this plays out.
However, the models are unanimous that this new consolidation effort will soon be broken up. I been trying to find the reason for several days. Maybe its the land interaction with Jamaica that finally opens this up and disrupts the low level circulation. It looks like it will run right over Jamaica at this point. Interesting to see if this plays out.
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Should be an increase in development chances at the next TWO. Looks pretty solid right now. It will be interesting to see how much interaction with Jamaica impacts its health. A big if, but if it can manage to mostly dodge Jamaica, I think it's very much worth watching on the other side.
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- meriland29
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Tbh, I have seen more storms regenerate after completely disintegrating than I can count, and in probably 50% of those, the models and NHC didnt even foresee a chance. ..
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
MississippiWx wrote:Should be an increase in development chances at the next TWO. Looks pretty solid right now. It will be interesting to see how much interaction with Jamaica impacts its health. A big if, but if it can manage to mostly dodge Jamaica, I think it's very much worth watching on the other side.
Me too it’s fighting off the shear from
Florence really well. It still has to battle shear in the Gulf but it may be able to overcome the shear considering the insane heat content and how it’s really creating a large region of thunderstorms for itself. In addition as Florence weakens and gradually moves away shear will plummet over the Caribbean. We will see what happens, but I still think it will redevelop. No
Matter what happens with development I fully expect heavy rain and flooding for Texas and Louisiana unfortunately .
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Without any re-development support from the GFS or Euro I doubt they will raise the chances unless there's a clear indication that an LLC is strengthening/organizing. In the short term land interaction with Jamaica should keep it at bay.
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- EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
That burst near where the LLC was near Jamaica sure is impressive, lots of broad scale turning too. But we've seen how sickly the LLC has been, so I'd honestly look for surface obs near Jamaica to see if there's any evidence of it trying to close back up. All other things being equal this looks very impressive right now but Isaac is a trickster.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
NDG wrote:Without any re-development support from the GFS or Euro I doubt they will raise the chances unless there's a clear indication that an LLC is strengthening/organizing. In the short term land interaction with Jamaica should keep it at bay.
And more importantly once Bones has declared him dead there is rarely more than a 20% chance of redevelopment.
Land interaction: check
Future shear: check
Shallow pressure gradient: check
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
And more importantly once Bones has declared him dead there is rarely more than a 20% chance of redevelopment.
LOL. If there's still a 20% chance of development why write it off? We've seen this story too many times before.
Last edited by EasyTiger on Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
If you look at the MIMIC, Isaac is pulling in moisture from the Pacific. Not necessarily a weak circulation.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl×pan=120hrs&anim=anigf
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl×pan=120hrs&anim=anigf
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
00z Best Track continues with it.
AL, 09, 2018091700, , BEST, 0, 176N, 755W, 25, 1007, LO
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Given the condition of the system whose name until recently was Isaac, would Jamaica be much of an impediment to reorganization even if the "center" moved right over the island?
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- EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Whatever's left is probably legitimately about to make landfall in Jamaica, so we will get some surace obs at least
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Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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