ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2159
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#821 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:57 am

Three tornado warnings in the area.
1 likes   

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#822 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:04 pm

Image
6 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#823 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:16 pm

The difference in surface pressure between the center and 50 miles out on the periphery is just a couple millibars. On the other hand at extreme magnification there do appear to still be some west winds wrapping the extreme southern part of the circulation.

These shallow profile surface pressure remnants can spin for days without generating much convection over the center of circulation again. Have to wait for either recon or persistent CDO to know if there is a new dip in surface pressure near the center.
1 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6771
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#824 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:36 pm

xironman wrote:Three tornado warnings in the area.
In the Caribbean?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138879
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#825 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:44 pm

2 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac,
is located about 125 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
This system continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development is possible during the next day or so as it moves
west-northwestward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive and re-development appears unlikely. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over
portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2159
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#826 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:49 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
xironman wrote:Three tornado warnings in the area.
In the Caribbean?

Oops meant to post to Florence.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#827 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:2 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac,
is located about 125 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
This system continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development is possible during the next day or so as it moves
west-northwestward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive and re-development appears unlikely.
Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over
portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
.


Image
4 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138879
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#828 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:25 pm

18z Best Track still with it.

AL, 09, 2018091618, , BEST, 0, 174N, 752W, 25, 1007, LO
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#829 Postby blp » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:57 pm

Vertically it is looking better than the past few days. The 500mb vorticity has finally moved closer to the 850 and 700 vorticity and is not stretched close to SA like it was yesterday.

However, the models are unanimous that this new consolidation effort will soon be broken up. I been trying to find the reason for several days. Maybe its the land interaction with Jamaica that finally opens this up and disrupts the low level circulation. It looks like it will run right over Jamaica at this point. Interesting to see if this plays out.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1535
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#830 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:10 pm

Should be an increase in development chances at the next TWO. Looks pretty solid right now. It will be interesting to see how much interaction with Jamaica impacts its health. A big if, but if it can manage to mostly dodge Jamaica, I think it's very much worth watching on the other side.
1 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#831 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:39 pm

Tbh, I have seen more storms regenerate after completely disintegrating than I can count, and in probably 50% of those, the models and NHC didnt even foresee a chance. ..
6 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#832 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:45 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Should be an increase in development chances at the next TWO. Looks pretty solid right now. It will be interesting to see how much interaction with Jamaica impacts its health. A big if, but if it can manage to mostly dodge Jamaica, I think it's very much worth watching on the other side.


Me too it’s fighting off the shear from
Florence really well. It still has to battle shear in the Gulf but it may be able to overcome the shear considering the insane heat content and how it’s really creating a large region of thunderstorms for itself. In addition as Florence weakens and gradually moves away shear will plummet over the Caribbean. We will see what happens, but I still think it will redevelop. No
Matter what happens with development I fully expect heavy rain and flooding for Texas and Louisiana unfortunately .
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#833 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:26 pm

Without any re-development support from the GFS or Euro I doubt they will raise the chances unless there's a clear indication that an LLC is strengthening/organizing. In the short term land interaction with Jamaica should keep it at bay.
0 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#834 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:29 pm

That burst near where the LLC was near Jamaica sure is impressive, lots of broad scale turning too. But we've seen how sickly the LLC has been, so I'd honestly look for surface obs near Jamaica to see if there's any evidence of it trying to close back up. All other things being equal this looks very impressive right now but Isaac is a trickster.
1 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#835 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:50 pm

NDG wrote:Without any re-development support from the GFS or Euro I doubt they will raise the chances unless there's a clear indication that an LLC is strengthening/organizing. In the short term land interaction with Jamaica should keep it at bay.


And more importantly once Bones has declared him dead there is rarely more than a 20% chance of redevelopment.

Land interaction: check
Future shear: check
Shallow pressure gradient: check
1 likes   

EasyTiger
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 8:42 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#836 Postby EasyTiger » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:15 pm

And more importantly once Bones has declared him dead there is rarely more than a 20% chance of redevelopment.


LOL. If there's still a 20% chance of development why write it off? We've seen this story too many times before.
Last edited by EasyTiger on Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

EasyTiger
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 8:42 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#837 Postby EasyTiger » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:18 pm

If you look at the MIMIC, Isaac is pulling in moisture from the Pacific. Not necessarily a weak circulation.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138879
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#838 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:52 pm

00z Best Track continues with it.

AL, 09, 2018091700, , BEST, 0, 176N, 755W, 25, 1007, LO


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Craters
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 349
Joined: Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:34 pm
Location: Alvin, TX (south of Houston)

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#839 Postby Craters » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:18 pm

Given the condition of the system whose name until recently was Isaac, would Jamaica be much of an impediment to reorganization even if the "center" moved right over the island?
0 likes   
Nothing that I post here should ever be treated as a forecast or anything resembling one. Please check with your local NWS office or the NHC for forecasts, watches, and warnings.

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#840 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:18 pm

Whatever's left is probably legitimately about to make landfall in Jamaica, so we will get some surace obs at least
0 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests