Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[chaser1]

Down to 978MB now on the GFS. I say dev chances are going up and it is getting a bit concerning with this run.

(Que up back-round theme music from the movie Jaws lol)

[jlauderdal]

if gfs is suddenly doing something like this we can only imagine what the hwrf will do, major hurricane

[KUEFC]

Surely we have to wait for consistency?

[LarryWx]

Note that the shear on the GFS is nil near the storm.

[chaser1]

Things are suddenly gonna get a lot more real here if the Euro begins to trend stronger too

[gatorcane]

Turning NNE looks like panhandle:

[Aric Dunn]

if gfs is suddenly doing something like this we can only imagine what the hwrf will do, major hurricane

The models are slowly coming onto the idea of a cut off upper low over the western gulf. depending on the placement of that this system could have that potential especially if it is slower...


the GFS also this RUN has a very strong digging trough.. will see if that changes..

[stormlover2013]

its one run of the gfs, the gfs this version at 6z showed nothing lol.

[psyclone]

Surely we have to wait for consistency?

no way! let the panic commence!

[cycloneye]

The invest tag looks more imminent now at any time with the bullish GFS performance at 12z.

[TheStormExpert]

its one run of the gfs, the gfs this version at 6z showed nothing lol.

But the GEFS Ensembles have been quite bullish for runs now, so this isn’t as surprising as it could be.

[gatorcane]

Oh boy, 966MB:

[jlauderdal]

its one run of the gfs, the gfs this version at 6z showed nothing lol.

yes, lets get the euro on board and get some consistency between the two before our friends on the north gulf coast start running out to home depot and wal mart

[stormlover2013]

oh it could happen, no doubt about, we need to see consistency GFS hasn't been consistent heck the most consistent has been CMC

[northjaxpro]

Boy?! 988 mb at 90 hr's , is quite the turn around for the GFS

It’s 978mb at 102hrs.

Yeah I just saw that as well. Wow! Big change this. 12Z GFS run. Very aggressive indeed! GFS signaling that much better upper level conditions. next week?

[MississippiWx]

Most models picking up on moving this more towards FL. Makes sense in October. I have hard time seeing this making landfall any further west than FL/AL border. Models are also picking up on a more favorable environment for development.

[Aric Dunn]

SO far the CMC pretty much has not wavered in days.. same general track into the gulf. after that its to far out.

current 12z CMC is farther west.

[chaser1]

Boy?! 988 mb at 90 hr's , is quite the turn around for the GFS

It’s 978mb at 102hrs.

Yeah I just saw that as well. Wow! Big change this. 12Z GFS run. Very aggressive indeed! GFS signaling that much better upper level conditions. next week?

....and in the F.W.I.W. catagory, the 12Z NAM has even shifted east and also stronger at 84 hr's as well

[MississippiWx]

SO far the CMC pretty much has not wavered in days.. same general track into the gulf. after that its to far out.

current 12z CMC is farther west.

Yeah, the only way this comes further west is if shorter term motion brings it similar to what the CMC is showing. I believe a path directly through the Yucatan Channel or over the tip of Cuba takes this into FL.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS with a landfall 18z Wednesday October 10th @ Hr.126 near Panama City, Florida.