2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2121 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:03 am

Crazy ridiculous the new GFS runs into CA then into boc and then towards the Florida keys. :spam:

Again I still don’t get what the models are developing this from.
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2122 Postby blp » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:05 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Could it be that the Euro is being left biased again? I guess we’ll have to wait and find out.


We all saw what happened with Michael when the Euro had several runs plowing into the Yucatan. This will swing back and forth. I think we have good consistency on cyclogensis in the short term range and the system being in the same general area as Michael by Day 10 which is scary for another potential Florida hit.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2123 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:11 am

blp wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Could it be that the Euro is being left biased again? I guess we’ll have to wait and find out.


We all saw what happened with Michael when the Euro had several runs plowing into the Yucatan. This will swing back and forth. I think we have good consistency on cyclogensis in the short term range and the system being in the same general area as Michael by Day 10 which is scary for another potential Florida hit.

Yes, with the FV-3 coming onboard it’ll be interesting to see if and when the GFS does so. Unfortunately all that TCHP in the NW Caribbean is coming to use this season. :cry:
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2124 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:18 am

I’m thinking that the GFS develops the next Caribbean disturbance too quickly which sends it into Central America guaranteed while it takes a little longer for the Euro
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2125 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:34 am

i dont see were models picking area up from not thing behind HURRICANE MICHAEL
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2126 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:04 pm

Not much to see thus far from the 12z runs cmc and gfs both drive weak low into CA.
0 likes   

User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1325
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2127 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:09 pm

In his daily summary Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicts another Caribbean storm in the 6-10 day range. He predicted Michael about a week in advance.
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2128 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:47 pm

FV3 GFS into Central America:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1325
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2129 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:20 pm

JB showed development south of Cuba headed northeast in the 6-10 day range.
0 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4161
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2130 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:26 pm

CourierPR wrote:JB showed development south of Cuba headed northeast in the 6-10 day range.

Cuba is really long W to E. South of what part of Cuba?
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2131 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:32 pm

Next or next year... :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2132 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:36 pm

Look familiar? No were to go but straight wet into CA.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1325
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2133 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:39 pm

toad strangler wrote:
CourierPR wrote:JB showed development south of Cuba headed northeast in the 6-10 day range.

Cuba is really long W to E. South of what part of Cuba?


He showed it heading NE into The Bahamas but I think you have to take that with a grain of salt this far out. It's on weatherbell.com, daily update.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2134 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:Look familiar? No were to go but straight wet into CA.

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/20 ... watl_8.png


I don’t recall a year with such persistent ridging this late. Looks like July with this pattern. Also no cold fronts for Florida to cool things down.
0 likes   

User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1325
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2135 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:41 pm

[quote="SFLcane"]Look familiar? No were to go but straight wet into CA.

I'll go with the forecast of the meteorologist with a master's degree and years of forecasting weather patterns. Also, look at what's coming from the west in that slide.
0 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4161
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2136 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:07 pm

I don't focus on placement this far out. The important item is that this keeps showing .... so we'll have to wait and see. What is also showing is a feature that can dig it out. Timing.
1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2137 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:46 pm

Watching 12z EPS members.. quite the clustering in the caribbean.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2138 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:54 pm

SFLcane wrote:Watching 12z EPS members.. quite the clustering in the caribbean.

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/08/lows.png


Looks like the majority of them move into Central America after that but still way out in time and likely to change.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2139 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:55 pm

Check that----> All EPS members head into CA.
2 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1787
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2140 Postby otowntiger » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:02 pm

SFLcane wrote:Check that----> All EPS members head into CA.
Sounds good!
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: CyclonicFury, duilaslol, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], NotSparta and 65 guests