ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[NDG]

0z GFS the most aggressive run so far over Panama City, this was with all of the dropsondes info being fed into the model's run tonight, so I guess conditions are not that bad for continuing strengthening.

[Steve]

Cmc roughly Santa Rosa County - might be a bit of a western outlier.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=42

It’s RGEM had it coming up under the AL coast before hooking ne. Nice bands for south al and southern ms. Also some inner core for coastal escambia county Florida .
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00900&fh=6

[N2FSU]

NHC track shifted east about 25 miles at 11pm

[sponger]

Brutal for Cape San Blas. A great surf spot for Dean in 95. We grabbed the FSU tent loan and snuck in and camped on the Dunes. Glassy head high surf all to ourselves.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro significantly east (60 miles?) of its 12Z run at hour 18

[LarryWx]

Hour 36: 0Z Euro is 50 miles SE of its 12Z run. Look out Apalachicola!

Edit: Hour 42: 0Z Euro is 75 miles SE of its 12Z run

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro hour 54 over where GA/AL/FL meet. 12Z Euro hour 66 was 75 miles north of that position not too far south of Ft. Benning on GA/AL border. Huge shift south.

[Hammy]

Euro still a Cat 3 despite the poor initialization it seems.

[LarryWx]

There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.

[KUEFC]

There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.

Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?

[LarryWx]

There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.

Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?

The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.

[KUEFC]

There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.

Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?

The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.

Maybe I am seeing it wrong? I am still seeing them hitting the panhandle?

[KUEFC]

There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.

Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?

The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.

Plus comparing the 00z yesterday to 00z today ECMWF today’s looks faster compared to yesterday?, am I seeing that right?

[LarryWx]

Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?

The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.

Maybe I am seeing it wrong? I am still seeing them hitting the panhandle?

They are. But they're now more eastern Panhandle instead of central to western panhandle. Remember the Panhandle is over 100 miles long. These 0Z models are now not far west of Apalachicola.

[LarryWx]

Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?

The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.

Plus comparing the 00z yesterday to 00z today ECMWF today’s looks faster compared to yesterday?, am I seeing that right?

Yes by 100 miles.

[KUEFC]

The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.

Maybe I am seeing it wrong? I am still seeing them hitting the panhandle?

They are. But they're now more eastern Panhandle instead of central to western panhandle. Remember the Panhandle is over 100 miles long. These 0Z models are now not far west of Apalachicola.

Ah I get you, so what’s your thinking now?

[LarryWx]

Maybe I am seeing it wrong? I am still seeing them hitting the panhandle?

They are. But they're now more eastern Panhandle instead of central to western panhandle. Remember the Panhandle is over 100 miles long. These 0Z models are now not far west of Apalachicola.

Ah I get you, so what’s your thinking now?

Just be wary of there being a tendency for TCs to shift eastward somewhat. Not always by any means. Just a modest tendency. It may not with Michael. Just keep watching. Maybe this last eastward trend is it for all I know.

[KUEFC]

They are. But they're now more eastern Panhandle instead of central to western panhandle. Remember the Panhandle is over 100 miles long. These 0Z models are now not far west of Apalachicola.

Ah I get you, so what’s your thinking now?

Just be wary of there being a tendency for TCs to shift eastward somewhat. Not always by any means. Just a modest tendency. It may not with Michael. Just keep watching. Maybe this last eastward trend is it for all I know.

Cheers, what’s the furthest east you see this getting?

[LarryWx]

Ah I get you, so what’s your thinking now?

Just be wary of there being a tendency for TCs to shift eastward somewhat. Not always by any means. Just a modest tendency. It may not with Michael. Just keep watching. Maybe this last eastward trend is it for all I know.

Cheers, what’s the furthest east you see this getting?

No offense but I'd rather not make a specific prediction like that and this isn't the right thread for that kind of discussion regardless.

[LarryWx]

Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.