11 AM discussion has some gems:
Beginning around 36 h, both the track and intensity forecasts become
very uncertain. In general, most of the global models and their
ensembles indicate that Leslie will begin to accelerate toward the
east-northeast or northeast by Thursday as a mid-latitude trough
approaches from the northwest, however the timing and extent of the
interaction is still highly variable from model to model. Based on
the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, a range of possibilities exists, from
Leslie essentially merging with this trough and becoming
extratropical over the far northeast Atlantic, to Leslie interacting
with the trough very little and continuing to meander over the
central Atlantic. There has been a significant change in the
consensus aids to show a slower track for Leslie based on recent
shifts in the deterministic models, but the NHC track forecast has
not been changed nearly as much, out of respect for continuity and
the high uncertainty in the forecast.
The low confidence in the track forecast beyond 36 h affects the
intensity forecast as well, since it is unclear what environment the
storm will be located within. The intensity forecast is therefore
held near the intensity consensus, and still calls for steady
strengthening during the next several days, followed by weakening by
the end of the forecast period. If Leslie moves as far east as
shown in the NHC track forecast, it would likely become a post-
tropical low by day 5, as shown explicitly in the forecast. However,
until confidence in the track increases, I can't rule out that
Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it
continues meandering over the northern Atlantic.
You hear that? Leslie could be a tropical cyclone indefinitely. Just rope off the NE Atlantic - she belongs to Leslie now.
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20