2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1

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TheStormExpert
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 100.1 - EPAC - 289.6 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 13.1

#181 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:47 am

How many ACE units did the 2016 Atlantic season manage to rack up again?
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 100.1 - EPAC - 289.6 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 13.1

#182 Postby NotSparta » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:54 am

TheStormExpert wrote:How many ACE units did the 2016 Atlantic season manage to rack up again?


I think it was about 140
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 100.1 - EPAC - 289.6 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 13.1

#183 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:20 am

So...

Epac is near record breakingly high.

Atlantic could have above average ACE this time tomorrow and is well on it's way to being officially above average per definition (105.9 is climatology, 112 is above average officially per NHC)

NIO has two strengthening systems. ACE of 19.7 gives us above average, highly likely...

WPAC is going through a slack spell but it's only really 1 long track super typhoon from being above average...and in a developing El nino year, that should be likely.

So we are on for all four N.Hemisphere basins are on track for above average for the first time ever recorded in modern era. N hemisphere could well be in the top 5 of all time once all is done.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 94.86 - EPAC - 290.7975 - WPAC - 284.145 - NIO - 13.6

#184 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:46 pm

I put my numbers for the NAtl, EPac, and WPac in the header for this post. My NAtl numbers are running a little lower than most sources because of the subtropical activity. I do not count subtropical systems towards the ACE total in order to keep things globally consistent. It's also worth noting that the EPac has pulled just a little ahead of the WPac again. In fact, it has also just barely pulled ahead of 2015, with only 1992 left to pass (294.4125).

The WPac is dormant at the moment but remains well above the average to date. If broken down into three groups of percentiles (below average, near average, and above average), since 1970 the JTWC best track data indicates that the breakpoint between near average and above average for the basin is about 312.5 units, so that is the number I would compare against for an above average WPac season. I'd keep an eye on the basin into the second half of October and into November, as this time frame is often rather fertile for some of the most intense systems the basin has to offer.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 104.5 - EPAC - 290.8 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 14.9

#185 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:21 am

Well the Atlantic is going to race past above average, maybe even today.

Worth noting that even if the season stopped right now and the S hemisphere was average, we would still be easily in the top 10 busiest years. Odds are we are going to go above 1000 units worldwide again this year.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 104.5 - EPAC - 290.8 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 14.9

#186 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:52 pm

KWT wrote:Well the Atlantic is going to race past above average, maybe even today.

Worth noting that even if the season stopped right now and the S hemisphere was average, we would still be easily in the top 10 busiest years. Odds are we are going to go above 1000 units worldwide again this year.

Yep. The Atlantic will very likely go above average tonight. And with Leslie going and going, Nadine still very much alive, and another system apparently forming in the Western Caribbean, there's no telling how high the ACE will eventually get by the end of the season.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 111.5 - EPAC - 291.8 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 18.8

#187 Postby StruThiO » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:20 pm

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 111.5 - EPAC - 291.8 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 18.8

#188 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:26 am

Atlantic ACE now 114. Wow!
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 111.5 - EPAC - 291.8 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 18.8

#189 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:05 am

This chart shows quite strikingly how active the current period (starting in 1995) has been, compared to other periods. Of course, we can safely assume that many cyclones in the earlier years (say, pre-1940s) were undetected. And many of those which were detected, were probably discovered long after they had formed.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 293.7 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#190 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:00 am

EPAC poised to make history in the next few days.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#191 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:23 pm

Only 6 ACE units for EPAC to reach 300 thanks to TS Tara that is bumping a little bit.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#192 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:31 pm

294 units now ... the suspense is simply unspeakable.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#193 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:33 pm

A new EPAC ACE record is almost inevitable that this point. Tara alone might be enough to take us over the line, assuming it lasts long enough.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#194 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:04 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:A new EPAC ACE record is almost inevitable that this point. Tara alone might be enough to take us over the line, assuming it lasts long enough.


If Tara stays short,Vicente will do it.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#195 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:49 pm

Tara will be enough. EPAC is about 1.2 units short right now at 294. Record at 295.2. That will fall tomorrow night with Tara, if not then the following morning doing the math. It will happen within 24-36 hours.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#196 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:Tara will be enough. EPAC is about 1.2 units short right now at 294. Record at 295.2. That will fall tomorrow night with Tara, if not then the following morning doing the math. It will happen within 24-36 hours.


Guess what, Record may be reached earlier.

As of 00:00 UTC Oct 16, 2018:

Location: 18.3°N 104.5°W
Maximum Winds: 55 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 90 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#197 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:26 pm

Tara seems incredibly weak though. Are we sure she can get the EPAC to the record?
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#198 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:30 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Tara seems incredibly weak though. Are we sure she can get the EPAC to the record?


It can. 1 unit or so isn't much. Unless it literally poofs over night it will likely be enough. It just has to be around by tomorrow night even if it was weaker is still good for the record.

If it misses any, the next one will surely get it and more.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.3 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#199 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:06 pm

Tara helping ramp up more closer to the 295.2 record. As of 03:00z is at 294.3.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.7 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#200 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:05 am

Looks like Tara wont be the one to break the EPAC ACE record if the 15:00z forecast occurs. If that happens,then it will be up to future Vicente.
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