BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MICHAEL IS STILL
STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 86.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch for the coast of Alabama has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 86.2 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States by Friday.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at
landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael
moves through the southeastern United States.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of
45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h).
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 965 mb (28.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft
Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...
Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.
Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018
Michael has continued to become better organized this morning. The
hurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more
apparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery. Data from both
NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend
of the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of
95 kt for this advisory. With two aircraft in the storm, they have
been able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times
this morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind
field. The planes actually passed through the eye around the same
time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one
another.
The outflow pattern has become better established over the
hurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly
shear. The shear should continue to decrease, and further
strengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday. Michael is
expected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Significant weakening
should occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United
States, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected
when the system moves over the western Atlantic.
Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several
advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early
Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer
trough over the central United States. As the trough moves eastward
it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday. The
hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance
is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some
differences in forward speed thereafter. The GFS and ECMWF have
trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been
adjusted accordingly.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will
rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within
the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect
life and property today.
2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.
3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.
4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 25.0N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 26.7N 86.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.8N 86.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 30.8N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1200Z 37.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 50.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MICHAEL IS STILL
STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 86.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch for the coast of Alabama has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 86.2 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States by Friday.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at
landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael
moves through the southeastern United States.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of
45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h).
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 965 mb (28.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft
Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...
Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.
Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018
Michael has continued to become better organized this morning. The
hurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more
apparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery. Data from both
NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend
of the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of
95 kt for this advisory. With two aircraft in the storm, they have
been able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times
this morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind
field. The planes actually passed through the eye around the same
time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one
another.
The outflow pattern has become better established over the
hurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly
shear. The shear should continue to decrease, and further
strengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday. Michael is
expected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Significant weakening
should occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United
States, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected
when the system moves over the western Atlantic.
Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several
advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early
Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer
trough over the central United States. As the trough moves eastward
it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday. The
hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance
is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some
differences in forward speed thereafter. The GFS and ECMWF have
trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been
adjusted accordingly.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will
rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within
the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect
life and property today.
2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.
3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.
4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 25.0N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 26.7N 86.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.8N 86.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 30.8N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1200Z 37.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 50.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
my Cowboys