ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Some people on this other weather forum trying to claim it was a cat 2 at landfall

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/516 ... l/?page=48

what an idiot on here

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Missing storm chaser Kyle Bower in Mexico Beach:

https://twitter.com/ksufearless/status/ ... 9256637440

After watching Brett Adair's feed, and hearing about the chasers who have been, or still are, missing today, this kind of feels like the El Reno of hurricanes. Pretty disturbing feeling.

If I recall, people were saying that on the day of Harvey's landfall when several chasers disappeared. But then they were all found alive and okay, I think.
So hopefully the "hurricane El Reno" doesn't come to pass this year either.

[FLpanhandle91]

Some people on this other weather forum trying to claim it was a cat 2 at landfall

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/516 ... l/?page=48

what an idiot on here

That guy has to be trolling honestly. The caliber of information and mature discussion on this forum makes that forum look like a bunch of arguing toddlers who have no idea what they're talking about.

[galaxy401]

How many storm chasers are still unaccounted for? I heard of one at Mexico beach but I haven't heard of any others.

[sbcc]

How many storm chasers are still unaccounted for? I heard of one at Mexico beach but I haven't heard of any others.

If you are referring to Kyle, he has been found and safe, so has Jeff P.

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

This is completely unofficial, and subject to change based on additional data, but here is how I would have the best track:

AL142018, MICHAEL, 22,
20181006, 1200, , LO, 17.5N, 86.2W, 25, 1009,
20181006, 1800, , LO, 17.8N, 86.6W, 25, 1008,
20181007, 0000, , TD, 18.1N, 86.9W, 30, 1007,
20181007, 0600, , TD, 18.4N, 86.8W, 30, 1007,
20181007, 1200, , TS, 18.7N, 86.5W, 40, 1005,
20181007, 1800, , TS, 19.0N, 85.9W, 45, 1002,
20181008, 0000, , TS, 19.7N, 85.5W, 55, 996,
20181008, 0600, , HU, 20.2N, 85.3W, 65, 984,
20181008, 1200, , HU, 20.9N, 85.1W, 65, 982,
20181008, 1800, , HU, 21.7N, 85.0W, 70, 979,
20181008, 1900, L, HU, 21.9N, 84.9W, 70, 978,
20181009, 0000, , HU, 22.7N, 85.2W, 75, 973,
20181009, 0600, , HU, 23.6N, 85.7W, 80, 972,
20181009, 1200, , HU, 24.6N, 86.1W, 90, 968,
20181009, 1800, , HU, 25.6N, 86.3W, 105, 957,
20181010, 0000, , HU, 26.6N, 86.5W, 110, 951,
20181010, 0600, , HU, 27.8N, 86.6W, 120, 945,
20181010, 1200, , HU, 29.0N, 86.3W, 130, 934,
20181010, 1500, T, HU, 29.6N, 86.0W, 135, 924,
20181010, 1730, L, HU, 30.0N, 85.5W, 140, 916,
20181010, 1800, , HU, 30.2N, 85.4W, 130, 920,
20181011, 0000, , HU, 31.5N, 84.4W, 75, 959,
20181011, 0600, , TS, 32.9N, 83.1W, 50, 981,
20181011, 1200, , TS, 34.4N, 81.6W, 45, 987,
20181011, 1800, , TS, 35.8N, 79.8W, 50, 989,
20181012, 0000, , EX, 36.6N, 77.7W, 50, 987,
20181012, 0600, , EX, 37.3N, 75.5W, 55, 984,
20181012, 1200, , EX, 38.7N, 72.1W, 60, 982,
20181012, 1800, , EX, 39.8N, 67.0W, 60, 980,
20181013, 0000, , EX, 41.2N, 63.4W, 70, 977,

[CrazyC83]

As the reanalysis of Camille found, while the vast majority of northern Gulf major hurricanes weaken on approach, a few don't. I think this is very much a modern-day Camille though, even though it was much farther east.

I'm writing what I think the BT is so far. Should be up later this evening.

How much of it is luck and timing? Clearly the N Gulf can support such strong storms, Camille, Harvey, and Michael proved they can strengthen up until landfall. Often storms that come into the gulf have matured in the Caribbean or the Sargasso sea, then being interfered with by the Greater Antilles before they reach the gulf and takes a toll. But Harvey and Michael were messy in the southern gulf, but quickly ramped up and timed themselves just perfectly to landfall before any structural changes or ERC takes place.

It's clear that wind shear has been hindering the intensification process of Michael through out his life until the final approach to landfall. As noted in one of the NHC discussions, the shear vector shifted to the same direction as Michael's movement when the NE turn commenced. If Michael had explosively intensified in the middle gulf it would likely starts an EWRC before landfall and result in weakening. Camille also rapidly deepened in the southern Gulf but had enough time to complete an EWRC and re-intensify until landfall. In both Camille and Michael's cases there have to be an ideal outflow pattern for their landfall intensities to occur, without any dry air or shear interference just prior to landfall.

In all three cases, they weren't exceptionally large storms either, so they weren't sucking in dry air from the central US. Harvey was over a warm pool, while Camille and Michael were moving at a good clip so they weren't upwelling either.

[EquusStorm]

I need to catch up with posts in the extreme tree damage from landfalling TCs thread, but I didn't expect to have a US storm to add to that list this year. All the tree shredding high end hallmarks are obvious with Michael for a 150+mph storm, and it's a great chance to compare with Frederic, Camille, Katrina, etc, since forest structure is much more similar to those here than it is in south FL to compare with Andrew.

[Texas Snowman]

@hurricanetrack — Walking thru Mexico Beach to receive my GoPro cam and I’m telling you, it’s DEVASTATED. Truly devastated. Some buildings completely swept clean - only slabs.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Some people on this other weather forum trying to claim it was a cat 2 at landfall

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/516 ... l/?page=48

what an idiot on here

Yeah I was there earlier. Usually that site is really good and filled with some amazing mets but no idea why they didn't turn storm mode on for that thread. Moderation was pretty bad too and very embarrassing with all the idiots coming out lol

I wanted to say the mods here have done a great job during the entirety of Michael. Thanks guys

[Texas Snowman]

@hurricanetrack — Drove from Panama City almost to Mexico Beach and I can tell you this is the worst damage from wind that I have ever seen! Absolutely catastrophic! You will not believe your eyes when you see it.

[JtSmarts]

@hurricanetrack — Drove from Panama City almost to Mexico Beach and I can tell you this is the worst damage from wind that I have ever seen! Absolutely catastrophic! You will not believe your eyes when you see it.

Storm2k is absolutely top notch and has been since the very beginning! I could not imagine hurricane season without this site!

[SconnieCane]

Some people on this other weather forum trying to claim it was a cat 2 at landfall

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/516 ... l/?page=48

what an idiot on here

That guy has to be trolling honestly. The caliber of information and mature discussion on this forum makes that forum look like a bunch of arguing toddlers who have no idea what they're talking about.

I post on there as "CheeselandSkies." There are many good posters, but some straight-up trolls which unfortunately IMO are allowed too much leeway.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Some people on this other weather forum trying to claim it was a cat 2 at landfall

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/516 ... l/?page=48

what an idiot on here

That guy has to be trolling honestly. The caliber of information and mature discussion on this forum makes that forum look like a bunch of arguing toddlers who have no idea what they're talking about.

Yea, anyone who made that type of post on S2K would have been banned in a heartbeat. AmericanWx really has gone downhill with some of their discussions. But this is off-topic, of course.

This has been a devastating day. I thought 2017 was going to be the worst-of-the-worst, and I honestly believed Florence was the worst 2018 was going to dish out. I couldn't have been more wrong. Michael is up there with Andrew, Camille, and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane.

[sbcc]

Hey, RailDawg, you got your ears on? How'd you make out?

[Texas Snowman]

@iCyclone — It's hard to convey in words the scale of the catastrophe in Panama City. The whole city looks like a nuke was dropped on it. I'm literally shocked at the scale of the destruction. #Hurricane #MICHAEL

[Sanibel]

They are saying the Gulf water temperature was 4-6 degrees above average and that accounted for the unseasonable intensification...

[Ken711]

11:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 32.1°N 83.8°W
Moving: NE at 20 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[NDG]

I still say that the windshear maps over Michael were way off, they did not matched to the dropsondes, especially the mid level shear which is usually the one that causes the most weakening to a major hurricane. As if Michael created its own environment right near it and ahead of its track.

[supercane4867]

I still say that the windshear maps over Michael were way off, they did not matched to the dropsondes, especially the mid level shear which is usually the one that causes the most weakening to a major hurricane. As if Michael created its own environment right near it and ahead of its track.

CIMSS shear map should be taken with a grain of salt. I rarely even look at them by now, especially when there's recon data avaliable.