ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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- DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Guy who works for my family's painting company genuinely believes "the government is making the hurricanes stronger" More BS than flat earthers.
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Destin/Santa Rosa Beach, Florida: Ivan 2004, Dennis 2005, Michael 2018, Sally 2020
Fort Lauderdale, Florida Eta 2020, Many future storms!
THE Ohio State University:
Fort Lauderdale, Florida Eta 2020, Many future storms!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
DestinHurricane wrote:Guy who works for my family's painting company genuinely believes "the government is making the hurricanes stronger" More BS than flat earthers.
Something about these "weather modification" nut jobs just makes my blood boil. Abandon your paranoid conspiracy theories and respect the power of NATURE. Yeah the U.S. government tried modifying hurricanes (in the hope of WEAKENING them) and thought they might be getting somewhere, then abandoned that when they realized any weakening observed was due to natural processes.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Extensive the trees that are down.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1050450270898061314
I guess the St Joe Paper company will harvest the trees since they planted many of them back in the day.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Extensive the trees that are down.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1050450270898061314
I saw destruction like that from Charley. Crazy stuff
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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I'm not a meteorologist, I'm an electronics engineer. While I can probably fix your toaster oven, you're not going to learn about storms from me!
New Mexico had no hurricanes. Then I moved to NC right before Fran.....
New Mexico had no hurricanes. Then I moved to NC right before Fran.....
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
N2FSU wrote:House made it through unscathed here in Tallahassee, thousands others, some just a few blocks away, aren’t so lucky. We are so densely tree covered in this area and the damage from those trees is widespread. 90% are without power (>110,000) and will be for probably a week. Had this made landfall another 40 miles east, Tallahassee would have been decimated.
It's haunting to consider how close Tallahassee came to this. All you have to do is look as the extent of devastation in places like Blountstown and Marianna to realize how fortunate Tallahassee is today.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
This is the big question. Will MIchael be upgraded to cat 5 in post season analysis?
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1050467062789881859
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1050467062789881859
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- StruThiO
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
didnt happen with maria pr landfall
didnt happen with jose
going to say it stays at 135 kts..
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
StruThiO wrote::uarrow:
didnt happen with maria pr landfall
didnt happen with jose
going to say it stays at 135 kts..
I think if this was out at sea when it peaked it wouldn't get upgraded. Jose, Joaquin, and Igor were all held right at the top of cat 4, but were not making landfall. So maybe the extent of the damage and observations right as Michael was making landfall will be enough to convince the NHC to bump it up. But again, it's only a 2mph difference.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I think there's a decent chance it gets upgraded too. The satellite presentation easily supported a cat 5, the elevated winds measured by radar were strong enough, the damage is remarkable, and the pressure generally supports a cat 5. Plus the last couple hours only had two eyewall passes with the last one catching a 152kt FL wind and there was no dropsonde in the 60 to 90 minutes before landfall.
The more I look at the big picture, I think 140 kts is very justifiable.
The more I look at the big picture, I think 140 kts is very justifiable.
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- galaxy401
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yeah some of that damage really seems like Michael may have reached five. If that's true that'll be the 3rd straight year of a category 5 as well as the 3rd straight M name. I guess M is the new I now. Talk about smashing that major hurricane drought very dramatically!
Death toll is starting to climb now that the damage is being checked. Up to 6 now.
Death toll is starting to climb now that the damage is being checked. Up to 6 now.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- HurricaneBelle
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
At least there's a front moving through the area right now which will give those without power a few days of lower humidities and pleasant morning temperatures. Not quite the post-Wilma cold blast but better than an early September hurricane.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looking at these damage photos. The degree of wind damage Michael had caused is definitely among top tier landfalling tropical cyclones worldwide.
Few of them that came to my mind include: Irma in Virgin Islands, Andrew in SFL, Camille in MS coast.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... a-carolina
Few of them that came to my mind include: Irma in Virgin Islands, Andrew in SFL, Camille in MS coast.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... a-carolina
Last edited by supercane4867 on Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- StruThiO
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The consensus does seem to be the intensity should be bumped up. We'll see. The damage seems consistent with a category 5.
By the way, thank you to the mods and staff of s2k. This site has had much less tomfoolery than other forums, from my experience. Thank you for your work in maintaining it.
By the way, thank you to the mods and staff of s2k. This site has had much less tomfoolery than other forums, from my experience. Thank you for your work in maintaining it.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I have a hypothesis I'd like to throw out there:
I think Michael's ability to strengthen up until landfall, instead of weakening like so many hurricanes do, had to do with its angle of approach with respect to the trough. Michael was already moving north in advance of the approaching trough, instead of being forced to recurve almost directly against their initial motion, as so many major hurricanes often are when they approach from the east. I think the lack of a need for Michael to fight its own inertia against the impending trough to turn north, as opposed to a Katrina or Rita type scenario might have been why its structure was so much better able hold strong up until landfall. I don't know how much credence this idea has, but I think its interesting that Camille and Harvey, both strengthening major hurricanes, had similar tracks and angles of approach on their ultimate landfall location to Michael.
Any thoughts?
I think Michael's ability to strengthen up until landfall, instead of weakening like so many hurricanes do, had to do with its angle of approach with respect to the trough. Michael was already moving north in advance of the approaching trough, instead of being forced to recurve almost directly against their initial motion, as so many major hurricanes often are when they approach from the east. I think the lack of a need for Michael to fight its own inertia against the impending trough to turn north, as opposed to a Katrina or Rita type scenario might have been why its structure was so much better able hold strong up until landfall. I don't know how much credence this idea has, but I think its interesting that Camille and Harvey, both strengthening major hurricanes, had similar tracks and angles of approach on their ultimate landfall location to Michael.
Any thoughts?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Very high king tides combine with onshore fetch to produce coastal erosion in the Carolinas:
https://twitter.com/PawleysIslandPD/status/1050385935358136320
https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/1050414240958431232
https://twitter.com/RickdBass/status/1050430640150196225
https://twitter.com/JLedgy84/status/1050429563359166465
https://twitter.com/PawleysIslandPD/status/1050385935358136320
https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/1050414240958431232
https://twitter.com/RickdBass/status/1050430640150196225
https://twitter.com/JLedgy84/status/1050429563359166465
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Destruction of the WeatherFlow station at Tyndall Air Force Base that measured 920 mb before failure:
https://twitter.com/WeatherFlowCHAS/status/1050206048244645888
Andrew- and Hugo-like wind damage to sturdy, mature pine trees in the western eyewall, Panama City:
https://twitter.com/Basehunters/status/1050419463428947968
More extreme wind damage, including debarking of mature trees, near the railroad tracks in Panama City:
https://twitter.com/Sean_Breslin/status/1050204142352982016
https://twitter.com/WeatherFlowCHAS/status/1050206048244645888
Andrew- and Hugo-like wind damage to sturdy, mature pine trees in the western eyewall, Panama City:
https://twitter.com/Basehunters/status/1050419463428947968
More extreme wind damage, including debarking of mature trees, near the railroad tracks in Panama City:
https://twitter.com/Sean_Breslin/status/1050204142352982016
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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