Kazmit wrote:StruThiO wrote::uarrow:
didnt happen with maria pr landfall
didnt happen with jose
going to say it stays at 135 kts..
I think if this was out at sea when it peaked it wouldn't get upgraded. Jose, Joaquin, and Igor were all held right at the top of cat 4, but were not making landfall. So maybe the extent of the damage and observations right as Michael was making landfall will be enough to convince the NHC to bump it up. But again, it's only a 2mph difference.
Actually, if it were out at sea, I would argue that there would be a chance it would be upgraded. With ADT numbers meeting or exceeding 7.0 in the final hour or two before landfall, there might be a case for upgrade if recon wasn't in the storm already, as some pro-mets pointed out near the time of landfall.
As for why it didn't happen in Maria or Jose, neither Maria's satellite presentation nor recon data supported an intensity above 155mph. I happen to think that since it had just completed in ERC and was showing since of strengthening, that if it had an extra hour or two before landfall, that it could have pulled it out. But that's simply not what happened.
As for Jose, this quote from its Post Storm Analysis sums it up well:
Jose’s estimated peak intensity of 135 kt from 1800 UTC 8 September to 0000 UTC 9
September is based on a blend of SFMR and flight-level aircraft data from two consecutive Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter missions. During the first mission, the aircraft measured peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 146 kt and 142 kt at 1208 UTC and 1356 UTC 8 September,
respectively, which equate to an intensity of about 130 kt. The highest “unflagged” SFMR
measurement during the same flight was 125 kt. On the next flight, the plane measured a slightly
lower peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 135 kt at 0026 UTC 9 September. The highest SFMR
measurement was 142 kt a few minutes later, however this observation was surrounded by
multiple flagged values and data dropouts, making the measurement somewhat questionable.
Without entirely discounting this measurement, Jose’s maximum intensity is estimated to be 135
kt, which is a blend of the SFMR data and the highest flight-level-adjusted winds.