ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

Some absolutely unprecedented videos of the stadium effect have just been uploaded. The time-lapse starting at 4:42 into the first video seems surreal...

https://youtu.be/H-iRXYRRGXQ

https://youtu.be/JWkgFz3e__w

Quote from someone in the first video: "There are some guys who chased hurricanes for their whole life. They have seen like dozens and dozens of them and never had anything like this."

Starting around 1:30 in the first video, you can see numerous birds (swallows or swifts, based on silhouettes) flying around in the eye. Many mariners have reported similar occurrences in tropical cyclones at sea. The birds become trapped in the circulation of the storm and then seek shelter during the passage of the eye. I have also seen quite a number of videos showing the same occurrence on land during the passage of a tropical-cyclone centre. The fact that the winds are so calm makes an eerie contrast with the birds, shattered pines, and cerulean, circular sky-vault above, enclosed by shimmering white eyewall clouds. Note that the needles on the pine trees are barely moving at all during the early segments of the first video. The eye is just absolutely perfectly formed, with all the attendant signs of an intense cyclone: the proverbial "calm in the eye of the storm," the surreal destruction, the birds...amazing.

[RL3AO]

I don't know how to quantify it, but its clear that the wind impacts from a weakening storm vs an intensifying storm at landfall are very different.

[Shell Mound]

I'd like to see some flyovers from Marianna and other inland communities that still got MH winds, at least in gusts. Based on the expected NE turn I thought the worst would be a little east of there in Wewahitchka, Blountstown, Chattahoochee, and Bainbridge (GA), but I haven't heard anything about how those communities fared. I don't know if that means nothing too bad happened there, or just nobody (as far as media/chasers) has bothered to check yet with all the focus on MB/PC.

https://twitter.com/TabithaZaffuto/status/1050502497587085312
https://twitter.com/sml_uf97/status/1050592639521882112
https://twitter.com/Michell92425075/status/1050539922300514304
https://twitter.com/jeffreyscott88/status/1050358641021386752
https://twitter.com/DannyLeBlanc24/status/1050163509206638592

Some more imagery from inland communities:

 https://twitter.com/gulfmclarenf1/status/1050620011872546816



 https://twitter.com/CCMilton/status/1050577083351662593



 https://twitter.com/PresidentMayo/status/1050552680668700672



 https://twitter.com/cliff2866/status/1050236307702775809




Communities like Marianna and Donalsonville are fifty to one hundred miles inland from the point of landfall, yet the severity of wind damage is incredible.

[otowntiger]

Anyone here have any idea where I could go or how can I find out what the highest wind gusts recorded or even officially estimated for various towns within the path of Michael? I have checked the Noaa sites and most of them are showing 'N/A' for weather data starting about the time the storm arrived in their area. I presume this has to do with power failures and/or instrument failures. But I presume that some instruments didn't fail and that they'd have back up power. For instance, I'd love to know what kind of winds swept thru Marianna (pics above) as it is about as far inland as I live from the coast and i'd like to have an idea what would be possible here should a cat 4 come inland at that forward speed. thanks in advance!

[tolakram]

Salute!

You are correct "Panhandle".

The surge was 80 - 90% of Katrina and maybe only 60% of Rita at Holly Beach. In fact, in 1957 I was throwing papers in NOLA the afternoon Audrey hit Cameron, LA. A coupla hundred died, but the wind was not half the reason, not close. Although over a hundred miles away, I could feel the wind on my bike, but did not realize what was happening over there in Cameron.

And so the next afternoon I read the papers I was delivering and I got religion. I am close to water, but over 60 feet up and not directly facing the Gulf as the folks in Waveland and Pass Christian and Long Beach and Gulfport and Mexico Beach.

I have all the latest code fixtures and have endured two very close hits and steady 110 to120 steady winds. But I ain't staying if I don't have to because of a late warning and jammed hiways. The Katrina warnings were earlie than we had back in the 80's or 60's, but the Michael ones were behind a bit, IMHO. So I am surprised we didn't have mass casualties, figure many homes and such were built to better codes than we had years ago. Whew!

I hope folks think about where they build and how to build and then talk to survivors about what works and what doesn't and "know when to fold'em".

Gums opines...

Hi Gums,

says your in Niceville or closeby, right? On the backside of Michael. Have you been able to get over to the hardest hit areas yet? Looking at the satellite picture showing the damage swath ...



And then the map



It appears to me you were well removed from the main damage area. We have a member (chaser) here who was in the area who described it as complete devastation and he was well back from the surge area. In addition we don't know what casualties are yet because many of the areas are still inaccessible. One of the chasers on the ground was calling for help in Panama City where none has arrived yet.

My gut tells me this was a cat 5 with damage somewhat limited by better building codes and lack of a huge surge. Katrina was a cat 3 with an incredibly bad surge which destroyed a ton of coastal areas and well inland.

If you look at the Camille photo archive a lot of the damage looks very similar.

https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us/roger_pielke/camille/gallery.html

[lovingseason2013]

Here is a link to my experience of driving around the devastation yesterday with the Weather Channel people.It has lots of photos and I seem to remember someone here saying something about train cars being knocked over in the storm of 1935 or something and Michael did as well. And train cars are much heavier now. This storm was a beast. I experienced Ivan first hand and had a home destroyed on Pensacola Beach. I thought I saw some crazy damage then but not near as bad as this one. And I didnt even make it into Mexico Beach.

https://www.facebook.com/onelostsole/po ... ed_comment

[CrazyC83]

Salute!

You are correct "Panhandle".

The surge was 80 - 90% of Katrina and maybe only 60% of Rita at Holly Beach. In fact, in 1957 I was throwing papers in NOLA the afternoon Audrey hit Cameron, LA. A coupla hundred died, but the wind was not half the reason, not close. Although over a hundred miles away, I could feel the wind on my bike, but did not realize what was happening over there in Cameron.

And so the next afternoon I read the papers I was delivering and I got religion. I am close to water, but over 60 feet up and not directly facing the Gulf as the folks in Waveland and Pass Christian and Long Beach and Gulfport and Mexico Beach.

I have all the latest code fixtures and have endured two very close hits and steady 110 to120 steady winds. But I ain't staying if I don't have to because of a late warning and jammed hiways. The Katrina warnings were earlie than we had back in the 80's or 60's, but the Michael ones were behind a bit, IMHO. So I am surprised we didn't have mass casualties, figure many homes and such were built to better codes than we had years ago. Whew!

I hope folks think about where they build and how to build and then talk to survivors about what works and what doesn't and "know when to fold'em".

Gums opines...

Hi Gums,

says your in Niceville or closeby, right? On the backside of Michael. Have you been able to get over to the hardest hit areas yet? Looking at the satellite picture showing the damage swath ...

https://i.imgur.com/TPjFXx4.png

And then the map

https://i.imgur.com/yy6YtAa.png

It appears to me you were well removed from the main damage area. We have a member (chaser) here who was in the area who described it as complete devastation and he was well back from the surge area. In addition we don't know what casualties are yet because many of the areas are still inaccessible. One of the chasers on the ground was calling for help in Panama City where none has arrived yet.

My gut tells me this was a cat 5 with damage somewhat limited by better building codes and lack of a huge surge. Katrina was a cat 3 with an incredibly bad surge which destroyed a ton of coastal areas and well inland.

If you look at the Camille photo archive a lot of the damage looks very similar.

https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us/roger_pielke/camille/gallery.html

The tree damage is likely the tell tale. We are seeing widespread debarking in the pictures, which is extremely rare in hurricanes. Even in Charley (strong cat 4), I don't remember seeing much, if anything, in the way of debarking, but trees on the peninsula may be somewhat more resistant. These are comparable to Maria at higher elevations (not the surface) and on Dominica, or to Camille.

[CrazyC83]

Anyone here have any idea where I could go or how can I find out what the highest wind gusts recorded or even officially estimated for various towns within the path of Michael? I have checked the Noaa sites and most of them are showing 'N/A' for weather data starting about the time the storm arrived in their area. I presume this has to do with power failures and/or instrument failures. But I presume that some instruments didn't fail and that they'd have back up power. For instance, I'd love to know what kind of winds swept thru Marianna (pics above) as it is about as far inland as I live from the coast and i'd like to have an idea what would be possible here should a cat 4 come inland at that forward speed. thanks in advance!

I would think Marianna saw category 3 conditions. There was friction to limit things, but it had only about 2-3 hours to weaken. Still, for an inland city to get major hurricane conditions is remarkable - it's very rare to see it away from the immediate coast. As for Donalsonville, I think it was category 2 conditions there. That would translate into HURDAT probably showing a category 4-5 impact for NW Florida, a category 2 impact for (inland) Georgia and a category 1 impact for (inland) Alabama.

[lovingseason2013]

All of the areas north of the coast smell of wood and pine needles, the pine scent is so overwhelming, you cannot believe the amount of tree damage there. Just absolutly snapped trees in half. You can def tell which side of the eye wall hit them. it changes as you drive east and is so interesting to see because it is so heavily forested. Marianna is probably hard to see from the air because so many trees are covering houses and streets.

Salute!

You are correct "Panhandle".

The surge was 80 - 90% of Katrina and maybe only 60% of Rita at Holly Beach. In fact, in 1957 I was throwing papers in NOLA the afternoon Audrey hit Cameron, LA. A coupla hundred died, but the wind was not half the reason, not close. Although over a hundred miles away, I could feel the wind on my bike, but did not realize what was happening over there in Cameron.

And so the next afternoon I read the papers I was delivering and I got religion. I am close to water, but over 60 feet up and not directly facing the Gulf as the folks in Waveland and Pass Christian and Long Beach and Gulfport and Mexico Beach.

I have all the latest code fixtures and have endured two very close hits and steady 110 to120 steady winds. But I ain't staying if I don't have to because of a late warning and jammed hiways. The Katrina warnings were earlie than we had back in the 80's or 60's, but the Michael ones were behind a bit, IMHO. So I am surprised we didn't have mass casualties, figure many homes and such were built to better codes than we had years ago. Whew!

I hope folks think about where they build and how to build and then talk to survivors about what works and what doesn't and "know when to fold'em".

Gums opines...

Hi Gums,

says your in Niceville or closeby, right? On the backside of Michael. Have you been able to get over to the hardest hit areas yet? Looking at the satellite picture showing the damage swath ...

https://i.imgur.com/TPjFXx4.png

And then the map

https://i.imgur.com/yy6YtAa.png

It appears to me you were well removed from the main damage area. We have a member (chaser) here who was in the area who described it as complete devastation and he was well back from the surge area. In addition we don't know what casualties are yet because many of the areas are still inaccessible. One of the chasers on the ground was calling for help in Panama City where none has arrived yet.

My gut tells me this was a cat 5 with damage somewhat limited by better building codes and lack of a huge surge. Katrina was a cat 3 with an incredibly bad surge which destroyed a ton of coastal areas and well inland.

If you look at the Camille photo archive a lot of the damage looks very similar.

https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us/roger_pielke/camille/gallery.html

The tree damage is likely the tell tale. We are seeing widespread debarking in the pictures, which is extremely rare in hurricanes. Even in Charley (strong cat 4), I don't remember seeing much, if anything, in the way of debarking, but trees on the peninsula may be somewhat more resistant. These are comparable to Maria at higher elevations (not the surface) and on Dominica, or to Camille.

[Javlin]

I was 8 went Camille came trough and saw Katrina later but what I have seen in videos and pics of Mexico Beach reminds me alot of Camille.The memory I have of Camille was staying @KAFB in Dolan Hall and those metal doors shaking violently for hours it seemed at the end of the hall and listening to broadcast military/ham radios of what was going on outside.The videos reaffirm my belief I will never stay for anything above minimum C3 but how people can claim this was not what it was is lunacy to me.You put Michael over a few degrees W and super impose the track eerie.

[PandaCitrus]

There's a pattern of catastrophic failures in metal and aluminum industrial buildings of all types. School Gyms, Boat/Airplane Hangers, Commercial retail, Industry storage, warehouses, etc. Much worse failures than the homes. Something that should be addressed in the building codes. School buildings are typically built to higher building standards than homes and a catastrophic failure in a place like a gym which could be used as a shelter is really BAD!

[otowntiger]

Anyone here have any idea where I could go or how can I find out what the highest wind gusts recorded or even officially estimated for various towns within the path of Michael? I have checked the Noaa sites and most of them are showing 'N/A' for weather data starting about the time the storm arrived in their area. I presume this has to do with power failures and/or instrument failures. But I presume that some instruments didn't fail and that they'd have back up power. For instance, I'd love to know what kind of winds swept thru Marianna (pics above) as it is about as far inland as I live from the coast and i'd like to have an idea what would be possible here should a cat 4 come inland at that forward speed. thanks in advance!

I would think Marianna saw category 3 conditions. There was friction to limit things, but it had only about 2-3 hours to weaken. Still, for an inland city to get major hurricane conditions is remarkable - it's very rare to see it away from the immediate coast. As for Donalsonville, I think it was category 2 conditions there. That would translate into HURDAT probably showing a category 4-5 impact for NW Florida, a category 2 impact for (inland) Georgia and a category 1 impact for (inland) Alabama.

THanks so much for your reply! I think that is reasonable to presume. And you are right, it is very rare for such damage to be swept so far inland, but for this storm, a very unique one, as it was intensifying near cat 5 moving at the clip that it was, I expected to see 115/120+ 50 miles inland. Very remarkable indeed! And thankfully very rare!

[Ubuntwo]

 https://twitter.com/LMartinezABC/status/1050812267669987334

[Vdogg]

Had quite a night in Virginia Beach last night. Nowhere near what the Panhandle faced, but man were we getting rocked last night. Had 75 mile-an-hour wind gusts. Lots of trees down and power outages. Did not expect Michael to still be that strong when it got here.

[Gums]

Salute!

Some great comparisons and such from our posters. And we finally get to see awesome videos and data streams that were not possible just 15 or 20 years ago. Gotta love it.

The biggest things apparent to this old vet have been pointed out, I know enuf about weather and such from my pilot days, and looks like we learn more each time a storm gets close and with the NOAA storm birds. Thern personal encounters, heh heh.

The tree bark phenomena is new to me, and I have seen post-Camille, post-tornadic of Katrina and first hand Opal damage. My best recollection when driving to Gulport a month or so after Camille hit is of the dirth of leaves in the trees as you approach impact zone. Then branches missing. Then the broken trees. Finally uprooted trees or what looks like giant toothpicks stuck in the ground. almost 50 years later, I drive the same roads and you would never know...... So our good Earth recovers, and so do we. The glass is half full.

I agree that this storm resembles Camille, but if you look at the pics from the Katrina surge study and tour, you will see much more continuous strings of empty lots that have pipes sticking outta the slab, and stilts with nothing on the top. Much more like Andrew, so that sucker musta had REAL WIND!! Katrina was much more water and a decent Cat 2 to cat 3 wind.

I shall not argue with the folks claiming apocalypse and such unless they have visited post-Camille, post-Katrina, post-Ivan, post-Opal and so forth. My son rebuilt a Kmart in Homestead and can verify many of the war stories.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
I rented in Mexico Beach for a few months, as I have said. It was long ago, and most places were built to 1950 standards outta concrete blocks. We then had Eloise in 1975 and Kate ( clone of Michael's path) in 1985, and some weak tropical storms. So I would estimate that over half of all the structures in Mexico Beach that existed a week ago were built to much higher standards. I also note that many were on the north side of the highway, unlike the 400 or 500 places we had in 1966 that were all right on the water. We had no marina then, so that canal was cut after we moved to where the Air Force sent us and EPA, USF&W and all the alphabet agencies were not around to keep the folks from cutting a channel from a small tidal drainage to the Gulf! LOL. In fact, we had no waterfront dining to speak of, so drove a few miles to St Joe.

Mexico Beach will come back and be stronger than before. Just like Gulfport, Pass Christian, Perdido Key and all the other places that folks want to be and they will take their chances.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=
Markalot asked about me helping.

Can't do it anymore. But two doors down the father and son have been there since early Thursday morning. They are 20 to 50 years younger and I like their attitude.

Gums sends...

[PandaCitrus]

I think the difference in surge between Michael and Katrina is size and geography. Katrina was a much larger storm and generated surge over great distances even if landfalling as a weakening Cat 3. Also, geography and surge potential is different in Mississippi vs. the Florida Panhandle. Mexico Beach appeared to be at 8 to 10 foot elevation but only a few miles south towards St. Joe Beach it rises to 19+ feet elevation. Also, the surge potential because of slightly deeper waters is reduced in Florida. NHC forecast up to 14 feet of surge. Max Potential in SLOSH is up to 19 feet for a Cat 5. Max Cat 5 Potential in Mississippi can be well over 35 feet in certain locations.

[PandaCitrus]

There should be good data measurements at Tyndall for the post analysis. If Tyndall received 150mph sustained with 170 gusts in the western eye, that's extremely impressive winds over land that is NOT on the immediate beachfront or in the northeastern eyewall. Even in the post analysis of Andrew, they only believe Cat 5 winds occurred on an extremely narrow sliver of land directly adjacent to Biscayne Bay, not inland. It's very likely this was a Cat 5 at landfall.

[chaser1]

There should be good data measurements at Tyndall for the post analysis. If Tyndall received 150mph sustained with 170 gusts in the western eye, that's extremely impressive winds over land that is NOT on the immediate beachfront or in the northeastern eyewall. Even in the post analysis of Andrew, they only believe Cat 5 winds occurred on an extremely narrow sliver of land directly adjacent to Biscayne Bay, not inland. It's very likely this was a Cat 5 at landfall.

Gotta say, I found the eastward expansion of Michael's winds to be far less distant then Andrew's wind field. At the same time, it was my recollection that Andrew seemed as if it were a much smaller storm then Michael. Then I got hold of this old radar GIF; I suppose the right front quad (north side of Andrew) was a good deal broader then I had remembered. It definitely seemed to spread higher strength winds a bit further north, then Michael did to it's east I think.

http://i.imgur.com/s3WmHE4.gifv

[Gums]

Salute!

Correct Panda, it's the under the surface structure plus the coastline geometry that determines the surge height.

There's an excellent NHC or "geodetic" agency explanation of all the surge factors and another university study I can't find real quick actually has the most extreme heights for a few places you won't believe.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

I take interest because I had 4 cousins go thru Katrina ( flooded out), and three uncles go thru Betsy and Camille. Three of the cousins now live across the Lake in Covington. One Uncle lost three places over near Waveland.

The current posters are focusing on wind, and I agree with that emphasis. The surge was nothing like Katrina or Camille or even Betsy. One thing that caught my attention in the MB picture were the rows of homes that went to smithereens. One place goes and the debris flows with the wind. So you have a row of houses blown up. Homestead has plenty of examples. It is one good reason for a subdivision developer to not have perfect geometric building sites. The houses should be staggered and as far apart as possible.

Gums opines...

[PandaCitrus]

The western eyewall that was over Panama City was extremely impressive at landfall on radar, much more so than the eastern eyewall. I hope we have some data in the post analysis to compare what winds Panama City, Tyndall, and Mexico Beach received. I'm also interested in the storm surge. Looking at the elevations and pictures of 7+ feet of water submerged homes which are at 8 feet elevation, I'm thinking higher than 14 feet, perhaps closer to 19 feet in spots. There were areas google earth says are 12 feet elevation that have only foundation slabs in Mexico Beach.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1050285757636767749