Texas Fall 2018

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4172
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#921 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:51 am

Image
0 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#922 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:16 am

LCRA to open 4 additional flood gates on Lake Buchanan today for a total of 8 flood gates open. Inflow into Lake Travis expect to cause elevation levels to rise to 700 ft. Serious flood conditions expected to continue as additional rainfall is expected Thursday into Friday.
1 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1808
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#923 Postby Haris » Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:49 am

Wow! Lake Travis is just going higher!

With more floodgates open in at Buchanan, forecasts call for 700ft it easily higher.

Haven’t seen this ever!

More rain Thursday won’t help
0 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

utpmg
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 172
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 12:07 am
Location: East Austin

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#924 Postby utpmg » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:16 am

Latest from LCRA:
Lake Travis is expected to rise to 705 to 710 feet msl by Friday, Oct. 19.
0 likes   

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5416
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#925 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:44 am

12z GFS has another 4-6" for DFW over the next week :rain: :rain:
1 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4172
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#926 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:49 am

utpmg wrote:Latest from LCRA:
Lake Travis is expected to rise to 705 to 710 feet msl by Friday, Oct. 19.


710.4 is the record. :double:
0 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4047
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#927 Postby gboudx » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:54 am

bubba hotep wrote:12z GFS has another 4-6" for DFW over the next week :rain: :rain:


Ok. Gonna start building an Ark this weekend.
1 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#928 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:36 pm



It sucks seeing this for me. I’m basically in a donut hole with red all around me, but this looks to be pretty accurate. I’m in the 2-3” zone on this map while almost everyone else has had double that amount or more with the exception of south and west Texas and the panhandle.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1177
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#929 Postby Cerlin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:47 pm

12z GFS has another significant cold front on Halloween. Snow in east Texas down to Mexico, DFW in the 30s. :froze:
2 likes   
Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3997
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#930 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:48 pm

SAT currently sits at 4th wettest fall (Sep-Nov), and we are only halfway through! Currently up to 20.39 inches, with 1998 holding the record at 23.04 inches.
2 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#931 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:The problems won't end here. In about a week to week and half Hurricane Vicente is going to bring yet another flooding event, IMO. Should rapidly or explosively intensify near the Mexican Riveria in the next couple of days. I have to agree with the CPC charts.

https://images2.imgbox.com/9f/d2/o27Ao1IG_o.gif


The CPC has ridiculously high probabilities of rain for Texas. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen such high probabilities so widespread throughout the entire state. They didn’t even have it that high for Harvey. It even has me here in SETX in the bullseye. The thing is though is that why do they have such high probabilities for Texas during this timeframe when none of the models are backing this up? Sure the models have most of Texas getting at least a few inches of rain, but you’d think with those types of probabilities that the models would be painting widespread totals of 5-10”+ for most of the state. Also, the CPC has SETX in the bullseye when the models have the bullseye for rain over central and north TX. I just can’t make any sense of that CPC forecast. I saw the 10 day forecast for Houston last night on the news and they also didn’t really have anything too crazy regarding rain chances on there either. They had a 60% chance for rain Friday and Saturday and one day next week had 60%, but that’s it. The rest of the days were like 20-30%. They weren’t even mentioning anything about any significant rain events headed our way. Also, the WPC forecast only had around 1” of rain for the next week for SETX.
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#932 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:17 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The problems won't end here. In about a week to week and half Hurricane Vicente is going to bring yet another flooding event, IMO. Should rapidly or explosively intensify near the Mexican Riveria in the next couple of days. I have to agree with the CPC charts.

https://images2.imgbox.com/9f/d2/o27Ao1IG_o.gif


The CPC has ridiculously high probabilities of rain for Texas. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen such high probabilities so widespread throughout the entire state. They didn’t even have it that high for Harvey. It even has me here in SETX in the bullseye. The thing is though is that why do they have such high probabilities for Texas during this timeframe when none of the models are backing this up? Sure the models have most of Texas getting at least a few inches of rain, but you’d think with those types of probabilities that the models would be painting widespread totals of 5-10”+ for most of the state. Also, the CPC has SETX in the bullseye when the models have the bullseye for rain over central and north TX. I just can’t make any sense of that CPC forecast. I saw the 10 day forecast for Houston last night on the news and they also didn’t really have anything too crazy regarding rain chances on there either. They had a 60% chance for rain Friday and Saturday and one day next week had 60%, but that’s it. The rest of the days were like 20-30%. They weren’t even mentioning anything about any significant rain events headed our way. Also, the WPC forecast only had around 1” of rain for the next week for SETX.


The overall 500mb historical analogs suggest the pattern that has been in place continues to feature rainfall across the state so I do think the CPC probabilities are good. It is a percentile forecast not qpf forecast that the WPC has. In general the El Nino pattern of wet southern US will continue. The rain forecast will fluctuate with the Hurricane, as you know, is hard to pin down where.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2968
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#933 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:18 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The problems won't end here. In about a week to week and half Hurricane Vicente is going to bring yet another flooding event, IMO. Should rapidly or explosively intensify near the Mexican Riveria in the next couple of days. I have to agree with the CPC charts.

https://images2.imgbox.com/9f/d2/o27Ao1IG_o.gif


The CPC has ridiculously high probabilities of rain for Texas. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen such high probabilities so widespread throughout the entire state. They didn’t even have it that high for Harvey. It even has me here in SETX in the bullseye. The thing is though is that why do they have such high probabilities for Texas during this timeframe when none of the models are backing this up? Sure the models have most of Texas getting at least a few inches of rain, but you’d think with those types of probabilities that the models would be painting widespread totals of 5-10”+ for most of the state. Also, the CPC has SETX in the bullseye when the models have the bullseye for rain over central and north TX. I just can’t make any sense of that CPC forecast. I saw the 10 day forecast for Houston last night on the news and they also didn’t really have anything too crazy regarding rain chances on there either. They had a 60% chance for rain Friday and Saturday and one day next week had 60%, but that’s it. The rest of the days were like 20-30%. They weren’t even mentioning anything about any significant rain events headed our way. Also, the WPC forecast only had around 1” of rain for the next week for SETX.
I think the models may be underestimating the moisture that Vicente will throw into Texas.
2 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1808
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#934 Postby Haris » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:21 pm

Image

This is NOT a good !!!!
0 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

utpmg
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 172
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 12:07 am
Location: East Austin

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#935 Postby utpmg » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:31 pm


He's the only person I've seen say this. Not saying it's not accurate, but LCRA had a press conf at 1:00 but hasn't updated any of their online or twitter feed. Very frustrating. I don't know what they said.Last I saw on their website was re: Buchanan opening four additional gates.
0 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2968
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#936 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:33 pm

Ensembles and op runs showing -EPO, -AO and -NAO by the end of Oct. The cold, wet pattern continues. At this rate we could be talking wintery precip by the Halloween timeframe which is not unheard of but very rare.
3 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

utpmg
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 172
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 12:07 am
Location: East Austin

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#937 Postby utpmg » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:42 pm

Skimmed the replay of the PC: indeed, Buchanan with 8 open may open more. Mansfield 4 open maybe 4 more in next 24hr
Look out below.
0 likes   

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4047
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#938 Postby gboudx » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:50 pm

Cerlin wrote:12z GFS has another significant cold front on Halloween. Snow in east Texas down to Mexico, DFW in the 30s. :froze:


This would make for an interesting CaptinCrunch Halloween forecast of winter. :D
4 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#939 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:52 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:Ensembles and op runs showing -EPO, -AO and -NAO by the end of Oct. The cold, wet pattern continues. At this rate we could be talking wintery precip by the Halloween timeframe which is not unheard of but very rare.


Latest GFS had wintry precip as far south as the mountains in Mexico. Wild :eek:
3 likes   

utpmg
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 172
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 12:07 am
Location: East Austin

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#940 Postby utpmg » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:03 pm

From the LCRA 1 PM press conference: Last week, Lake Travis got more water than the city of Austin uses in four years.
1 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 54 guests