2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 286.4 - NIO - 23.2

#221 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:05 pm

With the sheer amount of ACE Yutu could spew in the next several days, WPac looks to rocket back ahead of the EPac soon.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 286.4 - NIO - 23.2

#222 Postby Ryxn » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:31 pm

East Pacific could legitimately hit 350 if the central pacific spawns another class (~15-20 ACE) and the eastern pacific spawns a strong hurricane next month like Sandra in 2015 but conservatively weaker (~5-10 ACE) with the rest being miscellaneous TS/H (~5-10).

The low estimates of 15, 5, and 5 added to 313.5 get it to 333.5 ACE and the high estimates get it to 353.5 ACE

The average is 343.5 ACE so we will see whether or not we can surpass the once-imfathomable 350 ACE. Stronger miscellaneous storms would be needed.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 294.8 - NIO - 23.2

#223 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:10 am

The WPac has now also crossed 300 units, sitting at 302.605 as of 12Z.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 294.8 - NIO - 23.2

#224 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:16 am

1900hurricane wrote:The WPac has now also crossed 300 units, sitting at 302.605 as of 12Z.


You are way ahead of CSU.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 294.8 - NIO - 23.2

#225 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:58 am

cycloneye wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:The WPac has now also crossed 300 units, sitting at 302.605 as of 12Z.


You are way ahead of CSU.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

I would consider my numbers more accurate than CSU's. They always fall behind each year for strange reasons. Just using Maria as an example, they don't use the revised working best track data (seen here in the NRL trackfile for example) on July 4th and 5th while the system was undergoing rapid intensification, instead using some of the original lowballed estimates. Additionally, there is a data gap on July 11th around the time of landfall where two best track points are missing (06Z and 12Z). Extend occasional errors like this across the many systems of the WPac, and it's easy to see why their numbers are too low. Here is the CSU table compared against mine.

Image

Image
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 113.8575 - EPAC - 314.2875 - WPAC - 302.605 - NIO - 27.7175

#226 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:34 pm

Additionally, here is my comparison for the four NH basins, with numbers as of 12Z today in the header of this post.

Image
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 303.6 - NIO - 23.2

#227 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:44 am

With the EPAC record, the WPAC is now poised to overtake all basins. Given you can have huge ACE raking systems in November (sometimes even the strongest Typhoons of the year this month) and December the WPAC will take the claim for good once Yutu is done, especially so that we have an El Nino which pretty much makes the season year round there.

Will be curious to see the ACE numbers for the upcoming SPAC season. Maybe we'll see another Pam or Winston like storm.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 303.6 - NIO - 23.2

#228 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:52 pm

This season's northern hemisphere's ACE has been epic, in the history books for sure.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 303.6 - NIO - 23.2

#229 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:14 pm

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 307.4 - NIO - 23.2

#230 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:08 am

By my numbers, the WPac has passed the EPac again.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 122.1 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 315.3 - NIO - 23.2

#231 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:07 pm

And just like that, the WPAC is back in the lead thanks to Yutu. Unless the EPAC produces another powerful hurricane, the WPAC should hold the lead for the rest of the year. Atlantic is getting another boost thanks to Oscar and it possibly becoming a hurricane for several days. Amazing activity from all the basins.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 122.1 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 315.3 - NIO - 23.2

#232 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 28, 2018 3:26 pm

WPac ACE is now at 324.195. Excluding the obviously hyperactive 2015, this is the highest number for the basin since 2004. An active season for sure, but the last decade or so of typhoon seasons has been particularly below average. This is only the third >300 ACE season since 2006 (and 2012, the other season aside from this one and 2015, made it by less than a unit), and since that time, there has been more seasons <200 ACE than >300. Those seasons are 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2017, by the way. Quite a contrast to the 1990s, when five seasons had >400 units of ACE.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 127.0 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 320.7 - NIO - 23.2

#233 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:02 pm

EPAC may overtake the WPAC again next week, if one of the tagged invests becomes a major hurricane as some of the models depict.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 314.1 - WPAC - 322.6 - NIO - 23.2

#234 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:37 pm

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 314.9 - WPAC - 322.6 - NIO - 23.2

#235 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:06 pm

Virtually all of that purely-tropical ACE came courtesy of Florence. Sometimes you get a long-lived CV major, sometimes you don't... And that makes or breaks a seasonal ACE forecast.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 122.1 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 315.3 - NIO - 23.2

#236 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:59 pm

1900hurricane wrote:WPac ACE is now at 324.195. Excluding the obviously hyperactive 2015, this is the highest number for the basin since 2004. An active season for sure, but the last decade or so of typhoon seasons has been particularly below average. This is only the third >300 ACE season since 2006 (and 2012, the other season aside from this one and 2015, made it by less than a unit), and since that time, there has been more seasons <200 ACE than >300. Those seasons are 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2017, by the way. Quite a contrast to the 1990s, when five seasons had >400 units of ACE.


The West Pacific likely has an active and less active phase like the Atlantic does. Not sure how long the active and less active phase last in the Atlantic.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 314.9 - WPAC - 322.6 - NIO - 23.2

#237 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:04 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Virtually all of that purely-tropical ACE came courtesy of Florence. Sometimes you get a long-lived CV major, sometimes you don't... And that makes or breaks a seasonal ACE forecast.


Some seasons are more favorable for Cape Verde hurricanes, while others not as.

1961, 1998, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2017 were very favorable for CV hurricanes, while 2005 was not as despite being very active.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 333.2 - NIO - 29.1

#238 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:54 am

Nice boost in ACE from Man-yi and Usagi becoming typhoons.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 333.2 - NIO - 29.1

#239 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:52 pm

Damn, close but no cigar. The EPAC came pretty close to matching or beating the WPAC this year.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1

#240 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:07 pm

New record for EPAC ACE was made in 2018.

The ACE index for the East Pacific basin during 2018 was 316 (x104 knots2), which is the highest ACE value on record and almost three times the 1981-2010 average of 132 (x104 knots2 ).


Image

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201813
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