2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Monsoonjr99
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 208
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:22 pm
Location: Inland Empire, SoCal

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 286.4 - NIO - 23.2

#221 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:05 pm

With the sheer amount of ACE Yutu could spew in the next several days, WPac looks to rocket back ahead of the EPac soon.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.

Kay '22, Hilary '23

User avatar
Ryxn
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 314
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:50 pm
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 286.4 - NIO - 23.2

#222 Postby Ryxn » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:31 pm

East Pacific could legitimately hit 350 if the central pacific spawns another class (~15-20 ACE) and the eastern pacific spawns a strong hurricane next month like Sandra in 2015 but conservatively weaker (~5-10 ACE) with the rest being miscellaneous TS/H (~5-10).

The low estimates of 15, 5, and 5 added to 313.5 get it to 333.5 ACE and the high estimates get it to 353.5 ACE

The average is 343.5 ACE so we will see whether or not we can surpass the once-imfathomable 350 ACE. Stronger miscellaneous storms would be needed.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 294.8 - NIO - 23.2

#223 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:10 am

The WPac has now also crossed 300 units, sitting at 302.605 as of 12Z.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 294.8 - NIO - 23.2

#224 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:16 am

1900hurricane wrote:The WPac has now also crossed 300 units, sitting at 302.605 as of 12Z.


You are way ahead of CSU.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 294.8 - NIO - 23.2

#225 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:58 am

cycloneye wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:The WPac has now also crossed 300 units, sitting at 302.605 as of 12Z.


You are way ahead of CSU.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

I would consider my numbers more accurate than CSU's. They always fall behind each year for strange reasons. Just using Maria as an example, they don't use the revised working best track data (seen here in the NRL trackfile for example) on July 4th and 5th while the system was undergoing rapid intensification, instead using some of the original lowballed estimates. Additionally, there is a data gap on July 11th around the time of landfall where two best track points are missing (06Z and 12Z). Extend occasional errors like this across the many systems of the WPac, and it's easy to see why their numbers are too low. Here is the CSU table compared against mine.

Image

Image
3 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 113.8575 - EPAC - 314.2875 - WPAC - 302.605 - NIO - 27.7175

#226 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:34 pm

Additionally, here is my comparison for the four NH basins, with numbers as of 12Z today in the header of this post.

Image
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 303.6 - NIO - 23.2

#227 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:44 am

With the EPAC record, the WPAC is now poised to overtake all basins. Given you can have huge ACE raking systems in November (sometimes even the strongest Typhoons of the year this month) and December the WPAC will take the claim for good once Yutu is done, especially so that we have an El Nino which pretty much makes the season year round there.

Will be curious to see the ACE numbers for the upcoming SPAC season. Maybe we'll see another Pam or Winston like storm.
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 303.6 - NIO - 23.2

#228 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:52 pm

This season's northern hemisphere's ACE has been epic, in the history books for sure.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 303.6 - NIO - 23.2

#229 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:14 pm

3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 307.4 - NIO - 23.2

#230 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:08 am

By my numbers, the WPac has passed the EPac again.
2 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 122.1 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 315.3 - NIO - 23.2

#231 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:07 pm

And just like that, the WPAC is back in the lead thanks to Yutu. Unless the EPAC produces another powerful hurricane, the WPAC should hold the lead for the rest of the year. Atlantic is getting another boost thanks to Oscar and it possibly becoming a hurricane for several days. Amazing activity from all the basins.
1 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 122.1 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 315.3 - NIO - 23.2

#232 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 28, 2018 3:26 pm

WPac ACE is now at 324.195. Excluding the obviously hyperactive 2015, this is the highest number for the basin since 2004. An active season for sure, but the last decade or so of typhoon seasons has been particularly below average. This is only the third >300 ACE season since 2006 (and 2012, the other season aside from this one and 2015, made it by less than a unit), and since that time, there has been more seasons <200 ACE than >300. Those seasons are 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2017, by the way. Quite a contrast to the 1990s, when five seasons had >400 units of ACE.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 127.0 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 320.7 - NIO - 23.2

#233 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:02 pm

EPAC may overtake the WPAC again next week, if one of the tagged invests becomes a major hurricane as some of the models depict.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 314.1 - WPAC - 322.6 - NIO - 23.2

#234 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:37 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 35
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 314.9 - WPAC - 322.6 - NIO - 23.2

#235 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:06 pm

Virtually all of that purely-tropical ACE came courtesy of Florence. Sometimes you get a long-lived CV major, sometimes you don't... And that makes or breaks a seasonal ACE forecast.
3 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 122.1 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 315.3 - NIO - 23.2

#236 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:59 pm

1900hurricane wrote:WPac ACE is now at 324.195. Excluding the obviously hyperactive 2015, this is the highest number for the basin since 2004. An active season for sure, but the last decade or so of typhoon seasons has been particularly below average. This is only the third >300 ACE season since 2006 (and 2012, the other season aside from this one and 2015, made it by less than a unit), and since that time, there has been more seasons <200 ACE than >300. Those seasons are 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2017, by the way. Quite a contrast to the 1990s, when five seasons had >400 units of ACE.


The West Pacific likely has an active and less active phase like the Atlantic does. Not sure how long the active and less active phase last in the Atlantic.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 314.9 - WPAC - 322.6 - NIO - 23.2

#237 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:04 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Virtually all of that purely-tropical ACE came courtesy of Florence. Sometimes you get a long-lived CV major, sometimes you don't... And that makes or breaks a seasonal ACE forecast.


Some seasons are more favorable for Cape Verde hurricanes, while others not as.

1961, 1998, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2017 were very favorable for CV hurricanes, while 2005 was not as despite being very active.
1 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 333.2 - NIO - 29.1

#238 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:54 am

Nice boost in ACE from Man-yi and Usagi becoming typhoons.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 333.2 - NIO - 29.1

#239 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:52 pm

Damn, close but no cigar. The EPAC came pretty close to matching or beating the WPAC this year.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1

#240 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:07 pm

New record for EPAC ACE was made in 2018.

The ACE index for the East Pacific basin during 2018 was 316 (x104 knots2), which is the highest ACE value on record and almost three times the 1981-2010 average of 132 (x104 knots2 ).


Image

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201813
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Chris90, duilaslol, ljmac75, ToneLoc and 73 guests