2019 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

2019 WPAC Season

#1 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:13 am

As the 2019 Pacific Typhoon Seasons starts in less than 24 hours, it is about time to start this thread. Due to the impending El-Nino next year, it is quite possible that we will see a quite active year. What do you guys think?

Btw, these are the next 30 official names:
(Pabuk)
Wuti
Sepat
Mun
Danas
Nari
Wipha
Francisco
Lekima
Krosa
Bailu
Podul
Lingling
Kajiki
Faxai
Peipah
Tapah
Mitag
Hagibis
Neoguri
Bualoi
Matmo
Halong
Nakri
Fengshen
Kalmaegi
Fung-wong
Kammuri
Phanfone
Vongfong
2 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#2 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:15 am

It is also quite exciting to see whether 36W will become the last named storm of 2018 or the first named storm of 2019. Only time will tell. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#3 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:11 am

Image

Happy Typhoon New Year from where America's day begins!
2 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#4 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:48 pm

GFS is expecting 36W (future Pabuk) to bomb to 952mb in the Gulf of Thailand in the next 78 hours. :eek:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#5 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:50 pm

GFS is also forecasting the formation of another tropical storm that may hit the Philippines 12 days out.

Image

Meanwhile EURO doesn't develop any new systems after 36W.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#6 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:26 pm

The impending MJO may facilitate tropical activity in the region.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:00 am

Euro seems to develop something
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#8 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:17 am

Hayabusa wrote:Euro seems to develop something


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#9 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:59 pm

The system that EURO and GFS was developing became an invest.

90W
0 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#10 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:03 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#11 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:40 am

With el nino poised to strengthen, I can see this season being very active. One telltale sign for nino is early season Cat 5's and development out further east near the dateline.
1 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#12 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:53 am

Does anyone know if Japan is still doing recon flights into typhoons this year?

How about Taiwan's DOTSTAR?
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#13 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:02 am

euro6208 wrote:Does anyone know if Japan is still doing recon flights into typhoons this year?

How about Taiwan's DOTSTAR?


Even if they fly recon this year, I highly doubt that they will disclose extensive info about the flight data. :cry:

Take last year's Trami as an example, I think JMA only disclosed the minimum pressure of the storm to the public (915mb), other than that not much else.

In addition, the recon flights won't be as frequent as the NHC and it is highly improbable the potential recons will be able to measure a storm's peak strength.

However, I must say having few recon is still much better than none, isn't it?
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#14 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:29 am

Let's see if something actually develops within the first few weeks of the year. Pretty likely that the PH would be the target

Image
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#15 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:55 am

This storm actually reminds me of 2015's Typhoon Mekkhala, if the models are right. Both are January storms that may struck the Philippines. Moreover, 90W may reach cat 1 status (at least according to GFS), which will also make it comparable in strength to Mekkhala. Will this be an ominous sign of an active season ahead? :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#16 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:54 pm

Now GFS is expecting 90W to strengthen to 957mb.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#17 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:24 am

WPAC off to a fast start. Looking like our 1st TC of the year will be here soon.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#18 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:10 am

Image

As Pabuk makes landfall and exits the basin, another in the other side is developing.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#19 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:28 am

Season has just started and already records getting broken with Pabuk.
1 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
TyphoonNara
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
Location: Hong Kong

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#20 Postby TyphoonNara » Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:40 pm

GFS now forecasts the formation of a new weak system after 01W. It can be just a phantom system though.

Image
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: NotSparta and 67 guests