2019 WPAC Season

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TyphoonNara
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2019 WPAC Season

#1 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:13 am

As the 2019 Pacific Typhoon Seasons starts in less than 24 hours, it is about time to start this thread. Due to the impending El-Nino next year, it is quite possible that we will see a quite active year. What do you guys think?

Btw, these are the next 30 official names:
(Pabuk)
Wuti
Sepat
Mun
Danas
Nari
Wipha
Francisco
Lekima
Krosa
Bailu
Podul
Lingling
Kajiki
Faxai
Peipah
Tapah
Mitag
Hagibis
Neoguri
Bualoi
Matmo
Halong
Nakri
Fengshen
Kalmaegi
Fung-wong
Kammuri
Phanfone
Vongfong
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#2 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:15 am

It is also quite exciting to see whether 36W will become the last named storm of 2018 or the first named storm of 2019. Only time will tell. :lol:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#3 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:11 am

Image

Happy Typhoon New Year from where America's day begins!
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#4 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:48 pm

GFS is expecting 36W (future Pabuk) to bomb to 952mb in the Gulf of Thailand in the next 78 hours. :eek:

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#5 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:50 pm

GFS is also forecasting the formation of another tropical storm that may hit the Philippines 12 days out.

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Meanwhile EURO doesn't develop any new systems after 36W.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#6 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:26 pm

The impending MJO may facilitate tropical activity in the region.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:00 am

Euro seems to develop something
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#8 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:17 am

Hayabusa wrote:Euro seems to develop something


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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#9 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:59 pm

The system that EURO and GFS was developing became an invest.

90W
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#10 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:03 pm

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#11 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:40 am

With el nino poised to strengthen, I can see this season being very active. One telltale sign for nino is early season Cat 5's and development out further east near the dateline.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#12 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:53 am

Does anyone know if Japan is still doing recon flights into typhoons this year?

How about Taiwan's DOTSTAR?
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#13 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:02 am

euro6208 wrote:Does anyone know if Japan is still doing recon flights into typhoons this year?

How about Taiwan's DOTSTAR?


Even if they fly recon this year, I highly doubt that they will disclose extensive info about the flight data. :cry:

Take last year's Trami as an example, I think JMA only disclosed the minimum pressure of the storm to the public (915mb), other than that not much else.

In addition, the recon flights won't be as frequent as the NHC and it is highly improbable the potential recons will be able to measure a storm's peak strength.

However, I must say having few recon is still much better than none, isn't it?
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#14 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:29 am

Let's see if something actually develops within the first few weeks of the year. Pretty likely that the PH would be the target

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#15 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:55 am

This storm actually reminds me of 2015's Typhoon Mekkhala, if the models are right. Both are January storms that may struck the Philippines. Moreover, 90W may reach cat 1 status (at least according to GFS), which will also make it comparable in strength to Mekkhala. Will this be an ominous sign of an active season ahead? :eek:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#16 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:54 pm

Now GFS is expecting 90W to strengthen to 957mb.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#17 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:24 am

WPAC off to a fast start. Looking like our 1st TC of the year will be here soon.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#18 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:10 am

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As Pabuk makes landfall and exits the basin, another in the other side is developing.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#19 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:28 am

Season has just started and already records getting broken with Pabuk.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#20 Postby TyphoonNara » Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:40 pm

GFS now forecasts the formation of a new weak system after 01W. It can be just a phantom system though.

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