ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hurricaneman]

https://i.imgur.com/WOKLwj5.gif

Looks like a new WWB after the current one east of the date line, will most likely strengthen the El Niño

[Pressure]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif very telling that the El Niño may have the atmosphere slowly falling into place, but the element itself lacking

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/WOKLwj5.gif[url]

GFS surely is kicking off 2019 with a very strong WWB centered on the date line:


GFS has backed off its crazy amplification that it was previously showing, but this WWB near the dateline is the result of the GFS trying to park the MJO in phase 7. There's also better agreement with the GFS and Euro in their MJO forecasts.

[cycloneye]

Yes,the Caribbean being dry is a part of El Niño effects.

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1080310003490279425

[Kingarabian]

Latest subsurface analysis shows that there are some early hints that a new downwelling Kelvin wave has been triggered. Between 130E-160E warm anomalies have returned and expanded since December 24th.



This likely due to the large December 15-30 WWB in the WPAC. Now a strong WWB forecast (and verifying) over the CPAC and EPAC will likely strengthen and expand the present warm anomalies at the subsurface or trigger ANOTHER downwelling Kelvin wave.

[South Texas Storms]

Very impressive WWB going on across the Pacific right now. Some raw westerlies occurring across portions of the CPAC.

Chances for a double-barrel El Nino look to be increasing.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow:
Very impressive WWB going on across the Pacific right now. Some raw westerlies occurring across portions of the CPAC.

Chances for a double-barrel El Nino look to be increasing.

At the very least, chances for a cold neutral ENSO or La Nina are taking a significant hit.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1080674006410424321




 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1080969993741918208

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1081368787566264320

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1081568785239326721

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1081368787566264320[url]

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1081541869367058433

[Kingarabian]

Dr. Mike Ventrice offering plenty of insight today.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1081563039596404737




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1081579619671629826

[cycloneye]

Weekly update of 1/7/19 has Niño 3.4 at +0.7C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

WWB continues:



Interestingly the GFS and Euro both swing the MJO back into phases 6 and 7. Something to watch for, because the longer the MJO sticks in phases 6-7-8, the harder it is to get a La Nina or flip ENSO to cool.

[StruThiO]

here's an interesting thing wonder if it's transient or not

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1082810337001332736

[AnnularCane]

here's an interesting thing wonder if it's transient or not

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1082810337001332736

What kind of effect might that be?

[Hurricaneman]

here's an interesting thing wonder if it's transient or not

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1082810337001332736

What kind of effect might that be?

Possibly a failed El Niño or barely an El Niño and could cause a weaker EPAC season and possibly a more favorable environment for the 2019 hurricane season but this could change and needs to be watched

[Kingarabian]

here's an interesting thing wonder if it's transient or not

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1082810337001332736

This past hurricane season, didnt the PMM crash and become nearly negative only for the EPAC to go completely bonkers and produce a record season?

At the same time, wasnt the PMM very positive in early 2018 and was supposed to help a moderate El Nino develop for the 2018 hurricane season?

Maybe the PMM is a product of ENSO. Similar to how a La Nina can spur a cool PDO era, and an El Nino can trigger a warm PDO.

[NotSparta]

here's an interesting thing wonder if it's transient or not

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1082810337001332736

This past hurricane season, didnt the PMM crash and become nearly negative only for the EPAC to go completely bonkers and produce a record season?

At the same time, wasnt the PMM very positive in early 2018 and was supposed to help a moderate El Nino develop for the 2018 hurricane season?

Maybe the PMM is a product of ENSO. Similar to how a La Nina can spur a cool PDO era, and an El Nino can trigger a warm PDO.

It did crash briefly, but the feature was so transient that the mean PMM for July was still positive. The PMM rose afterwards, which is what allowed the record season along w/ anomalously weak trades.

Yes, but the Niño hadn't developed by summer, where a +PMM hurts El Niño rather than helps.

The PMM is related to ENSO, yes. +PMM tends to precede El Niño, & vice versa. it's mostly based on how the PMM modulates trade winds, & such.

[cycloneye]

CPC January update shortly.Will El Niño be declared?